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Marketplace

Holiday spending slowdown

10 Feb 2026

Transcription

Chapter 1: Why were retail sales flat in December despite high expectations?

1.769 - 32.669 Kristen Schwab

Today on the show, we'll talk about crypto, retail, AI scams, and we'll talk about a company placing a bet on the idea that it will outlive us all. From American Public Media, this is Marketplace. In New York, I'm Kristen Schwab in for Kai Risdahl. It's Tuesday, February 10th. Good to be here with you. Okay, humor me here. Grab your crystal ball.

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33.209 - 54.473 Kristen Schwab

Can you tell me where the economy will be in one year? Yes? No? Then how about in 100 years? An impossible task, I know. Because there's no way of understanding what economic policy will look like, how AI will shape our work, or even whether the companies we work for will still be here.

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54.453 - 74.759 Kristen Schwab

Well, Alphabet is promising it will be around in a century, making tech products and services and also making interest payments on corporate debt. The parent company of Google is issuing tens of billions of dollars worth of bonds this week, including some in the UK with a 100-year maturity date.

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75.5 - 90.351 Kristen Schwab

Marketplace's Daniel Ackerman looks into why Alphabet is going so long on its debt and who would actually buy these bonds. Alphabet has plans to spend big, says Dan Ives, a tech analyst with Wedbush Securities, on big data centers.

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90.812 - 97.862 Unknown

They're essentially building out new cities. It's like building Vegas from the desert in the 1950s.

98.423 - 102.229 Kristen Schwab

And that is going to take a lot of cash over the course of many years.

102.395 - 105.559 Arun Sundaram

We're going to be building out data centers for a long time to come.

106.099 - 125.443 Kristen Schwab

Giluria is an analyst with D.A. Davidson, and he says Alphabet's sale of century-long bonds is something of a flex on its competitors in the AI race. They want to communicate to everybody else, we're in it for the long haul. This is a big old game of chicken. We are going to drive as fast as we can.

125.483 - 131.49 Unknown

I'm going to borrow for 100 years because I'm that confident that I'm going to win. That's what Google is doing.

Chapter 2: How did consumer behavior change during the holiday season?

240.402 - 241.043 Kristen Schwab

How is business?

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241.704 - 258.449 Daniela Velasquez de Leon

Businesses is doing well ever since the full exemption on fresh produce that isn't produced domestically. That's given us some semblance of stability, though there's still a lot of uncertainty in the world right now.

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260.612 - 264.077 Kristen Schwab

You just mentioned some worries you still have. Tell me more.

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265.475 - 287.314 Daniela Velasquez de Leon

Well, on the one hand, it feels like tariffs are stable for now. But at the same time, there's still a lot of uncertainty when it comes to the macroeconomic situation. I mean, something like the strength of the dollar really affects all of the products that we're importing from abroad today.

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287.75 - 311.12 Daniela Velasquez de Leon

So even though we don't have the tariffs, our cost of goods has gone up over 10% year over year, just with the strength of the dollar. So that's pretty similar to what we were feeling with the tariffs. But we're not able to increase prices by that much, especially on an item like bananas that's been artificially underpriced for decades.

311.922 - 330.615 Daniela Velasquez de Leon

And then just the uncertainty around the upcoming renegotiation of the USMCA agreement is also something that has us a little nervous. Again, I really trust and hope that we'll continue to work together, you know, between the Canada, US and Mexico. But there's just a lot of uncertainty right now.

331.437 - 331.577

Mm hmm.

332.789 - 351.069 Kristen Schwab

You know, even if you're in a stable time, a more stable time right now than before, I'm kind of wondering what it's like to look back on the high stress period of maybe this past summer or earlier in the year and what that cost you in sanity, but also what it actually cost your business.

351.33 - 360.72 Kristen Schwab

I mean, I guess on one hand, it's better, you know, that you're dealing with less tariff stress now, but at the same time, was it all for nothing? I guess I'm wondering.

Chapter 3: What is the impact of AI on online shopping scams?

544.371 - 571.385 Kristen Schwab

So they were still spending, but they weren't overspending. perhaps foregoing that extra dessert or gift. Uncertainty about jobs, tariffs, healthcare costs, and government shutdowns could have all taken a toll on spending too, says Olivia Johnson at the University of Houston. We cannot negate the social and cultural and political turmoil that we've been seeing that ultimately impacts consumers.

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571.846 - 585.315 Kristen Schwab

Or maybe with retailers offering deals earlier and earlier, Consumers looking to save some money might have already finished their holiday shopping before December even started. Arun Sundaram is with CFRA Research.

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585.956 - 598.381 Arun Sundaram

November was a stronger than expected month. Retail sales were up 0.6% from October to November. And so that sort of explained why maybe we saw some flat growth in December.

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598.421 - 618.655 Kristen Schwab

Retail sales data, Sundaram says, can be volatile, so he's not worried about any one month. Though he will be watching as more retailers report their earnings over the next few days and weeks. In particular, looking at same-store sales, which give the clearest picture on how a retailer performed. I'm Carla Javier for Marketplace.

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624.44 - 645.079 Kristen Schwab

The frequency of extreme weather events have plenty of businesses looking for ways to prevent emergencies. Out West, shutting down power is becoming a more common strategy to combat wildfire risk. In late December, Colorado's largest utility provider, Xcel Energy, turned off the lights on thousands of people near Boulder.

645.139 - 654.447 Kristen Schwab

The company says a downed power line could have ignited a fire, but the shutoff has sparked backlash instead. Ishan Thakur reports from Boulder.

654.427 - 668.477 Ishan Thakur

Losing power during the shortest days of the year was trying for Bob Carmichael. He's no stranger to difficult conditions. He's climbed mountains, explored the ends of the earth, and even made a film about extreme skiing.

668.958 - 678.497 Kristen Schwab

I've spent a lot of time in big climbs and all kinds of stuff, but I know what I'm getting into. I don't just get thrust into it and say, good luck.

678.517 - 685.47 Ishan Thakur

Carmichael is almost 80 now, with hearing aids that need to be charged. For him, the whole experience was isolating.

Chapter 4: How are utility companies managing wildfire risks?

787.132 - 794.448 Ishan Thakur

Still, they felt lucky. Last month, Bell's doctors put her on oxygen, which means she now needs power 24-7.

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795.551 - 806.355 Susan Kaminar

We're glad that it happened before she went on oxygen. At the same time, it was really bad for a lot of people, and we're just one of many that were affected.

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806.555 - 818.773 Ishan Thakur

California was the first state to cut power to prevent fires. Michael Wara directs the Climate and Energy Policy Program at Stanford. He says shutoffs work. Is it a drag? Yeah.

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819.154 - 828.706 Kristen Schwab

No one loves a power shutoff. but they really do prevent fires under the most dangerous of circumstances, where the firefighters are not going to be as effective.

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829.187 - 842.579 Ishan Thakur

Wara says that utilities like PG&E have gotten much better at targeting, so only the highest-risk areas go dark. And Wara thinks Excel will get better at shutting off power and turning it back on in the future.

843.2 - 855.252 Kristen Schwab

It's something we have come to accept in California. I think many other Western states are going to have to accept it as well. Because you can't run the grid when it might kill someone by running it.

855.793 - 875.053 Ishan Thakur

Power shutoffs are just one tool utilities across the West use to prevent wildfires. But they may become more common because of how hot and dry it is. Getting used to the dark could be a new normal as more Americans learn to live with fire risk year-round. In Boulder, I'm Ishan Thakur for Marketplace.

882.948 - 907.15 Kristen Schwab

Coming up... Truly, I empathize so much with people like yourself who find these threats in the wild. The wild is full of lions and tigers and also scammy websites. But first, let's do the numbers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average found 52 points, a tenth of a percent, to close at 50,188. The Nasdaq gave up 136 points, six-tenths percent, to finish at 23,102.

907.49 - 936.16 Kristen Schwab

And the S&P 500 fell 23 points, a third of a percent, to end at 69.41. Wall Street analysts had been expecting Coca-Cola to report solid fourth quarter earnings this morning. But instead, Coke's revenues fell short of expectations. Shares flattened one and a half percent. Bonds rose. The yield on the 10-year T-note fell to 4.13 percent. You're listening to Marketplace. This is Marketplace.

Chapter 5: What led to the recent downturn in the cryptocurrency market?

1007.245 - 1014.996 Unknown

It's already plateaued and kind of bounced back up to the 70 mark, so this is not the dip to end all dips. There's no way.

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1015.497 - 1023.929 Kristen Schwab

Others are not so sure. Paul Krugman is a professor of economics at City University, and he says this could be what he calls crypto-fimblewinter.

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1024.51 - 1033.582 Ishan Thakur

In Norse mythology, the fimblewinter is the three-year-long winter that precedes the end of days. So it's kind of the final winter.

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1034.082 - 1046.702 Kristen Schwab

Definitely feels like final winter in New York and a lot of places right now. Krugman says Bitcoin has had 17 years to prove itself, and maybe time is up. How often can you convince people that something is the currency of the future?

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1047.143 - 1052.511 Susan Kaminar

Where is the actual use? It was supposed to be a safe haven, something that people would buy when

1053.233 - 1058.187 Unknown

deeply concerned, but we're not seeing that. It's behaving like a speculative tech stock.

1058.669 - 1064.425 Igor Payich

Some crypto optimists will give Krugman that. Igor Payich is a tech analyst and author of Tech Money.

1064.607 - 1076.117 Unknown

We saw a narrative basically fall apart. The narrative that Bitcoin is a protection against inflation and government spending run amok. But actually, with every business cycle, we saw that this was not true.

1076.618 - 1100.625 Kristen Schwab

When times are good, people pile into crypto. When times are panicky, people stampede out. And there is a lot of anxiety about AI disruption and AI bubbles and just the world. But that means there will be non-panicky times again one day. I think this is just a temporary impact. Surveys by Deutsche Bank Research show Bitcoin adoption fell from 17% in the U.S., U.K.

Chapter 6: What factors are contributing to the slowdown in holiday spending?

1226.539 - 1243.477 Megan McCarty Carino

Being the savvy consumer I am, I know you can sometimes end up with counterfeit beauty products, so I head over to Google to find something trustworthy. First sponsored result? The Davines North America official online shop. Spoiler, it was not.

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1244.038 - 1250.605 Kristen Schwab

Truly, I empathize so much with people like yourself who find these threats in the wild and assume that they are legitimate.

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1250.946 - 1264.461 Megan McCarty Carino

That's Ginny Spicer, a threat intelligence analyst at cybersecurity firm Netcraft, which says last year it identified 100,000 AI-generated websites impersonating almost 200 different brands.

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1264.441 - 1276 Kristen Schwab

We can see the basic hallmarks of AI generation that you might see repeated in the code. We're even watching to see how many emojis are left into the site code because that's not something people typically do.

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1276.601 - 1300.738 Megan McCarty Carino

But on the front end, my fake Davines website looked nearly identical to the real thing, at least on a mobile phone. No misspellings or janky graphics. It's not that I didn't know that sophisticated scam websites exist. They've been around a while. I guess I just wasn't expecting to encounter one in a Google search for a niche Italian hair product.

1301.359 - 1307.949 Megan McCarty Carino

Charles Henderson with cybersecurity firm CoalFire says AI has changed the economics of scamming.

1308.009 - 1313.517 Kristen Schwab

It's the same scam. It's just it's cheaper to do it on a broader scale.

1313.581 - 1333.201 Megan McCarty Carino

In the old days, my Davines scammer would either have had to learn specialized skills or hire someone with them, spend a bunch of time building a site, and then hope enough shoppers of a relatively obscure brand handed over their credit card numbers in the short window of time before the scam inevitably got reported.

1333.821 - 1340.348 Megan McCarty Carino

But AI makes it possible to generate dozens of official-looking sites a day with just a few prompts.

Chapter 7: How are tariffs affecting businesses and consumer prices?

1504.441 - 1539.81 Kristen Schwab

It chose to instead settle the market at the last traded price because of ambiguity. Kalshi saw more than $1 billion in trading volume on Sunday, a daily record high. Jordan Mangy, Sunil Maharaj, Janet Nguyen, Olga Oxman, and Virginia K. Smith are the digital team. And I'm Kristen Schwab. We will see you back here tomorrow. This is APM.

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