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Chapter 1: What factors contributed to the inflation rise in May?
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Chapter 2: How does core inflation differ from overall inflation?
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Chapter 3: What impact did the war in Iran have on inflation rates?
We'll do an update on where this economy stands. We'll do taxes, too. Sorry about that. And we'll spend some time alone. From American Public Media, this is Marketplace. In Los Angeles, I'm Kyle Risdell. It is Thursday today. This one is the 25th of June. Good as it always is to have you along, everybody. This is a day of data in this economy of ours, data about prices and data about growth.
4.1% is the headline price level data point, as you have likely already heard today. The personal consumption expenditures price index for May. And that 4.1% is faster than April inflation, as you do not need me to tell you. Most of it thanks to energy and the president's war in Iran. So with energy on its way back down now on the theory that the ceasefire is going to hold,
Chapter 4: How did Q1 GDP revisions affect economic outlook?
We are going to do what the Federal Reserve likes to do, spend some time on all the other inflation happening in this economy, the core rate, as it's called. As Marketplace's Justin Ho reports, that's picking up, too.
The rise in core inflation really started in April of last year when the president announced his import taxes. Those tariffs did push additional price pressures in the economy, particularly for the price of goods. Tim Dewey is chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors. He says later last year, core inflation started to hit services, too.
So that could be anything from insurance or health care services, financial services, food services, accommodations.
Dewey says the delay could be because tariffs took a little time to impact other costs. But it could also be because demand was strong, thanks to a good jobs market.
The labor market did seem to turn stronger at the end of last year.
And I would note that really some of our biggest accelerations in the inflation started in December and January and into March.
The war in the Middle East is boosting core inflation, too. Jeffrey Roach is chief economist at LPL Financial.
Think of logistics costs.
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Chapter 5: What challenges are Wyoming residents facing with property tax cuts?
Think of transportation costs.
Roach says that's increased the price of goods, and that, in turn, is boosting the cost of services, including health care.
When you think about the impact on the costs of the materials those professionals use... It starts to make sense, understanding why, for example, dental services is up over 8% from a year ago.
It'll take some time for the war's knock-on effects on prices to subside. Michael Pierce is chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.
If we look at gasoline prices, they've fallen back, but they're still about a dollar above where they were before the war. And it's going to take time for that to normalize.
Meanwhile, Pierce says there's still plenty of demand keeping prices high. And overall, the labor market is still in good shape.
Our expectation is that the labor market will be broadly stable this year, that we'll see the unemployment rate remain pretty close to where it is.
And that could keep pressure on prices to keep heading upward throughout the year. I'm Justin Ho for Marketplace.
The growth data point du jour is the third and final look at gross domestic product for the first quarter of the year.
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Chapter 6: How are Great Lakes cargo ships vital to U.S. supply chains?
It came to us courtesy of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which told us this morning the economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.1 percent January through March. That is a revision up from the last guess, which was 1.6 percent, which is nice. But it's not the whole story.
Consumer spending was revised down and the overall GDP number was boosted in part because we imported less stuff than people had originally thought. Now, what might that mean for the economy yet to come? Here's Marketplace's Henry App. These GDP numbers measure where the economy was several months ago, but they can give us something of a baseline for the rest of the year.
The new data released today actually make that baseline look a bit lower than expected, says Tuan Nguyen, an economist at RSM.
You put softer spending growth and lower imports together, you get a much weaker picture of the American consumer in the first quarter.
Not great, given that consumer spending makes up close to 70% of GDP. But there are different ways you can look at where economic growth might go from here. The glass half full view, the worst of the oil price spike, which was a drag on consumer spending and aid into corporate profits, might be behind us.
Most of the impact of the The Iran war was actually felt in the first quarter.
And if oil keeps falling, consumers might have a bit more spending power, says Eugenio Aleman, chief economist at Raymond James, which is a marketplace underwriter.
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Chapter 7: What is 'solo maxing' and how is it affecting Gen Z's dating culture?
I think that things are going to improve for the American consumer. And as long as the job market remains strong, I think that the economy is in a good path.
The glass half-empty view? Yeah, the job market is pretty good, but wages are not keeping up with high inflation. Sarah House is a senior economist at Wells Fargo. Those paychecks still aren't rising very quickly. And with that inflation backdrop, it's just it's hard for consumers to really ramp up their spending right now.
Plus, in the first quarter, consumers were getting a boost from higher than usual tax refunds.
As we get into the second half, a lot of that money has already been spent.
Still, there's a lot of corporate investment going on right now. So House thinks economic growth might plod along the rest of the year. Ethan Strube, an assistant professor of economics at St. Olaf College, has a similar view.
without big changes to population growth, big changes to productivity, that kind of thing, then we're just not going to see much faster than 2% growth very often.
So in that sense, first quarter GDP might be a sign of things to come.
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Chapter 8: What trends in socializing and spending are emerging post-pandemic?
I'm Henry App for Marketplace. Wall Street, as the week winds down, the chipmaker Micron Technologies blew the doors off its earnings forecast yesterday. But that was small solace to traders who've gotten the AI jitters. We will have the details when we do the numbers. We've got all kinds of different taxes in this country. Income taxes, sales taxes, Social Security taxes and property taxes.
Those property taxes typically go to towns and counties for public services. Think fire departments, libraries, ambulances and roads. They're just one of the things you got to pay until you don't. At least 18 states are looking at cutting or even eliminating their property taxes.
So Marketplace's Caitlin Tan is going to take us to a state where that has already happened to see how it's working out. Like many places during COVID, home values skyrocketed in Wyoming's little mountain towns.
People were coming in from out of state. They were paying cash offers. They were paying over asking price. And so that just made the market go up.
Hank Hoversland with the Wyoming Taxpayers Association says property taxes followed, meaning longtime Wyomingites were suddenly paying a lot more. And that led state lawmakers to lower them last year by 25 percent, saving a homeowner a few hundred bucks, but costing towns and counties tens of millions in revenue. There really isn't a plan to make up these revenues.
And so it's going to come on the backs of spending cuts. Like the library in the small town of Lander, Wyoming, where I meet director Anita Marple. She's wearing a Dr. Seuss t-shirt that says, oh, the places you'll go when you read.
Sometimes I just wear this shirt to remind me of, okay, here's our mission. So come on in. Okay, awesome. How was your weekend? You know.
Marple actually spent the weekend going over a difficult budget. These days, the library's doors are locked and the lights are out more often.
You're here on a Monday morning, and we're closed until 1 p.m.
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