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Marketplace

Less-than-great expectations for upcoming jobs data

09 Jan 2026

Transcription

Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?

0.031 - 12.492 Mitchell Hartman

Programming is supported by Prescription Landscape, serving commercial clients across the Twin Cities since 1980. With grounds care, hardscaping, interior scaping, and tree care. Learn more at rxlandscape.com.

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15.137 - 45.918 Amy Scott

The days of delayed government data aren't over. Up this week, jobs and inflation. From American Public Media, this is Marketplace. In Los Angeles, I'm Amy Scott, in for Kai Risdahl. It's Monday, February 9th. Good to have you with us. I want to call your attention to two items to watch on the economic calendar this week.

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46.178 - 71.422 Amy Scott

First, the January jobs report, delayed by last week's partial government shutdown, comes out Wednesday, followed by the latest consumer price index, also delayed, now scheduled for Friday. Both are key readings on the health of the economy, and both are expected to be OK, as in modest but not great job growth and moderating but not yet low enough inflation.

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71.783 - 74.048 Amy Scott

Marketplace's Mitchell Hartman has more.

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74.315 - 88.418 Mitchell Hartman

The economy has been adding an anemic 50,000 jobs a month on average over the last year, just one-third of the rate in 2024. And more of the same is expected for January, says Boston College economist Brian Bethune.

88.438 - 99.816 Brian Bethune

The whole employment market has been sort of put on hold. Limited hiring going on by large business, actually reductions in employment levels in the small business world.

100.235 - 121.818 Mitchell Hartman

What's more, the January jobs report also comes with something called annual benchmark revisions, which are expected to reduce the number of jobs added to the economy last year by 6,000 to 900,000, says economist Joe Bersuelas at consulting firm RSM. meaning we're probably going to see a net decline in jobs for the entire year of 2025.

122.5 - 141.311 Mitchell Hartman

Bruce Willis says there are a bunch of reasons why the job market has stagnated, starting with a declining supply of workers for employers to hire. You've got the long-run demographic issues caused by the retirement of the boomers. Second, very tight immigration policy, which is a choice on the part of the Trump administration.

141.812 - 156.533 Mitchell Hartman

Also, he says, companies overhired during the post-pandemic recovery, and now they're slimming down. Plus, they've invested heavily in automation and AI, which is increasing productivity and reducing their need for more workers right now.

Chapter 2: What are the expectations for the upcoming January jobs report?

255.28 - 264.06 Justin Ho

Many foreign investors sold treasuries after the president's Liberation Day tariff announcement. Labat says that matters because demand for government bonds affects bond yields.

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264.31 - 276.109 Mitchell Hartman

So if the United States Treasury sells bonds and foreigners don't show up at the auctions to buy bonds, that means that domestic purchasers are probably going to require higher interest rates to choose to buy those bonds.

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276.529 - 285.083 Justin Ho

In other words, the federal government is going to have to pay more interest on the national debt. That said, foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries has been holding steady over the last several months.

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285.824 - 289.71 Mitchell Hartman

It's not accelerating, but it hasn't really slowed down either.

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289.859 - 305.679 Justin Ho

Chris Lowe at FHN Financial says one reason is because tariffs haven't been as extreme as investors worried they might be. Another reason, he says, is that treasuries are still more attractive than bonds from the rest of the world. Interest rates in other countries have been rising, in Japan and the U.K.

306.059 - 313.028 Mitchell Hartman

You know, the thing is that when interest rates go up, the price of those bonds, their value increases. goes down.

313.409 - 318.817 Justin Ho

And that makes U.S. bonds look more attractive, despite all of the ongoing uncertainty in this economy.

319.358 - 327.631 Mitchell Hartman

It's like being the tallest kid in the kindergarten class. Still not very tall, but it looks taller than the rest.

328.172 - 334.041 Justin Ho

Bottom line, the U.S. Treasury market has been stable over the last few months, says Guy Labat at Janie Montgomery Scott.

Chapter 3: How will revisions to 2025 jobs data affect employment figures?

581.649 - 604.067 Emily Pontecorvo

There was a climate task force that was formed by the American Petroleum Institute, the kind of trade group that all of these companies are a part of. And when this task force was formed, kind of after that, all these companies started to take similar actions. They shut down internal research programs for alternative energy and they withheld products from the market.

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604.588 - 621.895 Emily Pontecorvo

If they hadn't been working together, they might have, you know, individually tried to, it would have made more sense for them to kind of lead the way into the future with these other technologies. But so it kind of makes the case that their behavior can only be explained by a conspiracy.

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622.01 - 642.598 Amy Scott

And so I think listeners might be wondering, what's the end goal here? Is it to hold fossil fuel companies accountable to make them take climate action more seriously? Or is it really just about paying for the damage that these states and municipalities are already experiencing and only see rising in the future?

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643.44 - 671.162 Emily Pontecorvo

The explicit goal, the explicit kind of ask in these cases is, funding for adaptation, funding for damages. This Michigan case is no different, but it's a little bit different in that it also asks for compensation for high energy costs for this, you know, difference in how much they think they've overpaid essentially for energy over the past decade. All right.

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671.562 - 677.869 Amy Scott

Emily Pontecorvo is a staff writer at Heatmap. Thanks so much for sharing your reporting. Thanks for having me.

694.252 - 699.951 Kate Fortmuller

Coming up. So it was like, I want to go on a trip or I wanted to travel more. So I would put it on my credit card.

700.713 - 709.692 Amy Scott

So tempting, right? But first, let's do the numbers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average found 20 points, pretty much flat, to close at 50,135.

Chapter 4: What factors are contributing to the stagnation of the job market?

709.913 - 739.66 Amy Scott

The Nasdaq picked up 207.9% to finish at 23,238. And the S&P 500 climbed 32 points, almost half a percent, to end at 69.64. The shares in telehealth company Hims and Hers Health plummeted 16% today after its plans to sell a copycat GLP-1 weight loss drug unraveled. On Friday, the FDA signaled it took a dim view of the knockoff. On Saturday, HIMSS pulled its plan to offer it.

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739.72 - 754.144 Amy Scott

Then today, the company got hit with a patent infringement lawsuit filed by Novo Nordisk. The Danish drugmaker perked up 5.25%. Bonds rose. The yield on the 10-year T-note fell to 4.20%. You're listening to Marketplace.

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757.432 - 774.546 Julissa Mercedes

This Marketplace podcast is supported by Fay Gree Drinker, one of the largest law firms in Minnesota, with nearly 300 Minneapolis attorneys helping clients solve complex legal issues and meeting their goals in the Twin Cities and beyond. FayGreeDrinker.com.

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776.264 - 796.95 Amy Scott

This is Marketplace. I'm Amy Scott. Remember that big Hollywood strike more than two years ago now, when both writers and actors walked off the job and productions pretty much ground to a halt? The industry is still recovering, and yet film and TV actors and producers were back in the negotiating table today to hammer out a new labor contract.

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797.55 - 810.546 Amy Scott

Many of the key issues are the same—the rise of artificial intelligence and how streaming has changed the business— But the landscape in which these talks take place is different. Marketplace's Nova Saffo has the story.

811.587 - 822.919 Nova Saffo

The writers' and actors' strikes in 2023 were punishing, and the industry in the aftermath has shrunk. Jobs are dwindling. Kate Fortmuller at Georgia State University is writing a book on the subject.

823.28 - 833.811 Skylar Moore

I've talked to a lot of people who felt like they were really just kind of barely scraping by and trying to figure out what they wanted to do because this just doesn't feel sustainable to them.

834.044 - 844.307 Nova Saffo

Studios have been cutting costs amid intense competition. Overseas tax breaks are pulling jobs elsewhere. Todd Holmes teaches entertainment media management at Cal State Northridge.

844.405 - 856.182 Todd Holmes

Streaming now is a dominant distribution platform now over broadcast and cable TV. Just as the streamers now, you know, for the longest time, were just trying to ramp up their subscriber numbers, whereas now they're more focused on profitability.

Chapter 5: What inflation trends are expected in the upcoming consumer price index?

885.083 - 887.967 Mitchell Hartman

It's replacing the need for directors on a lot of shoots.

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888.468 - 896.259 Nova Saffo

And the cost savings, Moore says, are too enticing for studios. He says actors and writers may have no choice but to strike again.

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896.279 - 899.303 Mitchell Hartman

I really don't think that the will is there for that.

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899.35 - 901.594 Nova Saffo

Tom Noonan is an independent film producer.

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902.114 - 918.861 Mitchell Hartman

The combo platter of the pandemic and then the labor strikes, the fires in Los Angeles, and then all of this consolidation, it's really just been an overwhelming, uncertain, and awful time.

918.942 - 933.542 Nova Saffo

Noonan says how negotiations go will ultimately depend a lot on tone. And so far, all sides have been sounding more conciliatory than they had prior to the strikes in 2023. I'm Novosafo for Marketplace.

949.402 - 971.067 Amy Scott

Ever shelled out a bunch of money for a tool or a piece of equipment that you might need around the house just occasionally? Or maybe wished you could just borrow that shop vac or chainsaw? More communities are adding tool libraries for just that purpose. And lately, they've been playing another role in disaster response. Michael Friedrich wrote a story about it in Bloomberg.

971.327 - 972.068 Amy Scott

Thanks for joining us.

972.629 - 973.89 Mitchell Hartman

Thanks for having me, Amy.

Chapter 6: How is foreign investment in U.S. Treasurys performing?

1155.749 - 1169.346 Amy Scott

Wow. But formal governments, you know, have a lot more money, right? I mean, I assume that these can't totally replace the role of government in terms of long-term recovery.

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1170.107 - 1188.212 Mitchell Hartman

Certainly. And look, I think we absolutely need the state to provide repair for infrastructure, you know, roads, get the water and the electric turned back on. But there are services that government can't necessarily provide.

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1188.272 - 1214.055 Mitchell Hartman

These kinds of immediate responses where a community comes together and clear the trees off the road, provide a shoulder for somebody to lean on and cry on when they're overwhelmed by the magnitude of the disaster. These are the gaps that community members can really fill while people are waiting for FEMA funding to trickle in.

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1214.035 - 1220.402 Amy Scott

Michael Friedrich wrote about tool libraries in Bloomberg. Thank you so much for sharing your reporting.

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1220.702 - 1222.124 Mitchell Hartman

Thank you so much for having me, Amy.

1226.429 - 1239.283 Amy Scott

If you want to hear more about solutions for a changing climate, check out the podcast I host. It's called How We Survive. The latest season looks at how our food is changing. You can find it now wherever you get your podcasts.

1241.626 - 1253.408

Thank you.

1259.935 - 1279.873 Amy Scott

There was a trend going around social media last month, maybe you saw it, called No Spend January. It's a challenge to only spend money on the bare necessities, like groceries and rent, for 31 days. No takeout, no coffee runs, no shopping sprees. All in the name of saving a little cash to start off the new year.

1279.933 - 1294.488 Amy Scott

And given that more than a third of Americans say they wouldn't be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense, it makes sense why some might want to take up the challenge. With that in mind, here's the latest installment of our series, My Economy.

Chapter 7: What are the implications of foreign banks reducing U.S. Treasury purchases?

1295.289 - 1326.079 Kate Fortmuller

My name is Julissa Mercedes. I'm 28. I live in San Diego and I participated in No Spend January. I do have a job that pays me six figures. I work as a financial analyst, but even at that point, it doesn't mean that I'm able to essentially spend my money as I really want to. This is my second time doing No Spend January. I essentially started off pretty strong. I incorporated some hobbies.

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1326.16 - 1345.005 Kate Fortmuller

So for me, it's like pickleball. In the beginning of the month, it was pretty strong. I didn't have any urges to go out and spend. But midway through the month of January, I had an injury. So I did kind of buy some takeout and some like coffees just because I wasn't able to move around for a couple of days because of the injury.

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1349.44 - 1374.25 Kate Fortmuller

I was able to see that with my no spend, I had about like over $1,000 that I was able to not spend because of my no spend January. I put that towards my emergency savings, which I'm slowly building up. But my main priority for essentially 2026 is paying off my debt. It's about like $18,000 that I'm trying to pretty much pay off by the end of 2026.

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1376.069 - 1399.037 Kate Fortmuller

If I'm being honest with you, when I was in my early, mid-20s, like 25, 26, I would see a lot of people going on trips and, you know, doing those type of things and like buying. So it was like, I want to go on a trip or I wanted to travel more. So I would put it on my credit card. When you add all those things together, it became thousands and thousands of dollars. I was like, I'll pay it later.

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1399.077 - 1420.932 Kate Fortmuller

I'll pay. And so it just kind of like snowballed slowly but surely. And I was like, all right, I got to stop. I got into budgeting and doing more of the spreadsheets. I was just kind of building habits to be better in my finances because I come from a lower income background. I'm also a first gen as well.

1421.453 - 1437.541 Kate Fortmuller

I didn't grow up with any personal finance understanding or I didn't grow up with any understanding about investing or savings. I think now as an adult, now that I can do that for myself, I really wanted to make sure that 1A was that I'm getting better in my personal finances. It's not just going to happen for me.

1437.702 - 1464.477 Kate Fortmuller

I had to take actual time and educate myself as well to try and reach certain goals that I'm trying to do for myself. I would consider this month a success for my no spend. I didn't feel completely like strapped for cash or I didn't feel like I was able to go out and do things that I wanted to do. I still had a pretty enjoyable month and I was able to save and invest for the month.

1465.338 - 1466.86 Kate Fortmuller

For me, that was a win-win.

1470.738 - 1506.262 Amy Scott

Julissa Mercedes in San Diego, California. She says she's thinking about trying a no-spend quarter next year. As we always say, we cannot do this series without you. So tell us what's happening in your economy. You can do that at marketplace.org slash my economy. This final note on the way out today with a hat tip to Axios. Homeowners are staying put longer than they have in at least 25 years.

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