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Chapter 1: What does the May CPI report reveal about inflation trends?
Olen Shannon Maldonado, käsin tehtyjä artesaanituotteita myyvän Jauhi-lahjakaupan perustaja. Valitsin Shopify, koska alustoja testatessani totesin sen ehdottomasti yhdeksi helppokäyttöisimmistä alustoista. Minulla oli tärkeää pohtia kehittymistämme tulevaisuudessa. Kaikki myyntiin tarvittavat työkalut, kuten varaston suunnittelu, ovat kätevästi dashboardissa. Aloita ilmainen kokeilu shopify.com-sivustolla.
On the one hand, on the other hand. Two sides of the same coin. Oh no, wait, wait, I got it. Half full, half empty. From American Public Media, this is Market Flats.
In Los Angeles, I'm Kyle Risdahl. It is Wednesday today, the 10th of June. Good as it always is to have you along, everybody. Regular listeners to this program will know that there is rarely only unadulterated good or only unadulterated bad economic news. Does that happen sometimes? Sure. Did it happen today?
No, no it did not. Before you start throwing things though, hear me out, because there is, or there are, at least two sides to today's data. Begin, we shall, with the unadulterated bad. Consumer prices were up 4.2% last month, you've heard that already. That is the year-over-year increase, and yes, it was driven in very large part by the energy shocks, thanks to President Trump's war with Iran, and that is...
As Marketplace's Elizabeth Troval reports to get us going. Bad news for those that the Consumer Price Index is all about. Anybody who has filled up the gas tank or bought airline tickets recently is well aware. Consumer pockets have limited ability to stretch. Yelena Shalitseva with the Conference Board says as energy prices push inflation higher than wage increases. That means negative implications for consumer spending going forward.
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Chapter 2: How are energy prices impacting consumer spending?
If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed and the world drains its oil inventories further, energy prices could spike even higher. And Christiana Baumeister with Notre Dame says there's a risk that what's happening with energy prices could shape consumers' inflation expectations.
They have been seen once again, month after month, since the outbreak of the war, prices rising, right? And they might just start expecting further and further increases, and that means inflation expectations might become unanchored.
That's a risk for the Fed. And even though core inflation, which strips out food and energy, is still below 3%, Baumeister suspects that measure could move up. The inflation process is a staggered process. Some companies might have taken a wait-and-see approach before passing costs on to consumers, but I think that might still happen. You cannot underestimate the cumulative impact that the energy squeeze and the price shock is having.
That's Olu Sonola with Fitch Ratings. He says that's especially true in this K-shaped economy. Pre-war on an annualized basis, the consumer spent about $400 billion on energy goods. Now it's running at about $600 billion.
Ja Jason Shanker with Prestige Economics says even if inflation today is driven by energy shocks, it's still more of a concern than just a few months ago. He thinks that means a shift away from where monetary policy was headed. The likelihood of a cut is very small and the increasing probability of rate hikes means not only are consumers under pressure, but now higher interest rates often have an impact of slowing business investment.
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Chapter 3: What insights does core inflation data provide?
He calls it the worst of both worlds. I'm Elizabeth Troval for Marketplace.
So that's one way of reading today's report. Grim, likely to stay grim for the foreseeable future. And that's not wrong. It is, however, incomplete. The glass half empty, if you will. Because core inflation, which, again, looking at you regular listeners, because you will know, core data does not count food and energy prices since they bounce around so much. And yes, I know we all need food and energy, but the core data gives the Federal Reserve a better sense of which way price trends are going.
Anyway, to get back to my point, core inflation actually slowed April to May. Marketplace's Justin Ho is on the glass half full beat today. To be clear, any kind of inflation is discouraging. But Claudia Somm, chief economist at New Century Advisors, says when you look under the hood... There are some things in the CPI data that...
should give us at least for the moment some comfort. For one, Sam says we're starting to see signs that all of the inflation caused by tariffs is cooling off. For instance, furniture prices actually fell in May. Some tariff-sensitive categories got more expensive, including apparel. But Sam says those are one-time price increases, and they're working their way through the supply chain. If it continues to process these latest goods like apparel, if they continue to look like,
The furniture goods, well, that inflation is going to subside in the coming months.
Inflation in rent and vehicles is starting to cool too. Kathy Bostjansik, chief economist at Nationwide, says new vehicle prices have only risen two-tenths percent over the past year. So that's basically flat. You haven't seen any real increase in motor vehicle prices. As a result, Bostjansik says it's possible that inflation has peaked, especially since gas prices have eased a bit too. They've fallen about a quarter to 30 cents per gallon, and we think that trend continues.
Energi-pricet ovat vielä paljon suurempia kuin ne olivat ennen sääntöä. Mutta monet yritykset syrjäävät niiden kosteudet, sanoo Bill Adams, Yhdysvaltainen ekonomisti Fifth Third Commercial Bankissa. Yleensä, kun on ekonominen syrjintä, yritys syrjintä, ja se näyttää, että se voi olla lyhyellä elämällä, yritykset odottavat, kuinka paljon se syrjintä on lisäänyt, jotta se pääsee kuluttajille. Inflaatio nyt ei ole kovin suurin piirtein, kun syrjintä lisääntyy pandemian jälkeen, sanoo Claudia Somm, New Century Advisorsin.
It's a more concentrated set of prices that have really taken off, that's pulling up inflation. But none of this negates the more pessimistic view we heard from Elizabeth, because price levels are still higher than they were. There's no reason to panic with these data, but it's still quite a bit of pain that's working its way through with this.
And that will continue the longer the war drags on. I'm Justin Ho for Marketplace. Wall Street at the halfway point of the week. Hoo boy, we're traders not happy. Inflation, more shooting in the Middle East, oil up. Details, numbers, when we get there.
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Chapter 4: What are the long-term economic effects of slowing immigration?
as a result of the immigration policies that we've been pursuing. So what we're doing now actually is going to affect what this economy looks like in a hundred years.
Oh, absolutely, in a whole host of ways. I mean, we also have estimates in the piece in 2075, so that's like 50 years after this policy shock. Of course, so much is uncertain, and there are a lot of assumptions that are baked into these estimates, but you're looking at a firm entry that is still about 4,000 to 6,500 firms smaller. That's about 1% of the firm growth that you would have otherwise had that you will not have as a result of these policies that you've pursued.
Natasha Sarin. She's at Yale Law School, also president and co-founder of the Yale Budget Lab. Natasha, thanks a lot. I really appreciate your time. Thanks so much for having me.
They don't want to be perceived as just sitting around the campfire with campers eating s'mores. Wait, that's bad? First though, let's do the numbers.
Yeah, the wah-wahs. Dow Industrials down 953, 1.9%, 49,918. The Nasdaq dropped 509 points, that is 2%, 25,169. The S&P 500 down 119, 1.6%, 7266. Heard a lot about inflation for consumers a couple of minutes ago. One big expense this summer, travel. Airfare is up nearly 27% in May compared to the same time last year. Kiitos, että katsoitte.
This is Marketplace. I'm Kai Rysdal. The Great Salt Lake, geologists will tell you, is the biggest saltwater lake in the Western Hemisphere. For now. That's not geology, that's trend analysis. Because the Great Salt Lake has been drying up for decades. And the ways in which that is bad is a lot. All of which you can probably well imagine. But there are hopes that an 80-year-old technology...
can maybe turn things around. Amy Scott and the crew of our climate podcast, How We Survive, just dropped a new season. It's all about large-scale climate interventions. Large-scale climate interventions like trying to make it snow in the desert. Here's Amy. It's an early morning in February and I'm in Utah, standing on the shores of the Great Salt Lake with my producer Haley. Looking out at the still water, I pull up an app on my phone.
Onnistuminen on 35,3 prosenttia. Vau. Joten se on rauhassa. Yhtäkkiä on kriittinen ja rauhassa. Se ei ole hyvä. Se ei ole hyvä. Rainmaker on nykyinen rauhaseiden yritys, joka suosittelee, että se voi pysyä lakia rauhassa 6 vuotta. Se on suunnitelma. Luulen, että se on tehtävää. Kyllä.
Augustus Dorico is the company's founder. He says historically cloud seeding has been done using airplanes or ground generators to disperse the seeding agent, typically silver iodide. Rainmaker uses drones and radar technology. All right, you want to skedaddle?
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Chapter 5: How are summer camps adapting to attract counselors?
There's no scientific evidence in terms of what cloud seeding can do to be able to support a claim like that.
In its 80 year history, cloud seeding has never generated so much rain or snow that it's made a radical difference. When I posed some of this pushback to Rainmaker, they said, "...the assumption that cloud seeding is not enough to halt aridification is based on how legacy cloud seeding companies operate. We are the first company with the ability to meet the scale of the problem."
Työntekijöiden ja radarien käyttäminen saattaa järjestää rauhoja ja tilanteita, joita suurimmat järjestelmät ylittävät. Järjestelmät ovat kylmät, kylmät, kohti maat, ja ne voivat tarkistaa, kuinka paljon järjestelmää he luovat. Mutta Dorico arvostaa, että saavuttaminen Great Salt Lakella tarvitaan myös vedenkonservatiivisuutta. Se on kuin jos sinun tuli tullekin ja joku teki sinulle törnäkettä.
The Trump administration has asked Congress to approve $1 billion in funding to restore and protect the lake. In Camas, Utah, I'm Amy Scott for Marketplace.
As I said, Amy and the team have been hard at work. There's a whole new season of How We Survive available for your listening pleasure right now. Subscribe, obviously, wherever you get your podcasts.
Tässä on yksi 16-19-vuotiaiden yhdessä, tai ehkä paremmin, vanhempien yhdessä. 16-19-vuotiaiden yhdessä, tämä on tietoa Yhdysvaltojen St. Louisista, on melkein 15 prosenttia. Joten ajattelisin, että vanhemmat olisivat yrittäneet tehdä kaikkea, mitä he voisivat tehdä.
Turns out, though, that one of the classic summer jobs, camp counselor, is losing some of its appeal. Alina Dizik had the byline in a story I saw on Bloomberg the other day about how sleepaway camps are changing to keep their counselors coming back. Alina, it's good to talk to you. Thanks so much for having me. I will say at the outset, this sounds mildly terrifying and frankly horrifying. Would you please tell me why teenagers are hesitant about working in summer camps?
Lapset ovat epäilyttäviä keskustelemaan keskusteluissa, koska keskusteluissa on niin paljon keskustelua, mitä teet keskusteluissa. Esimerkiksi koulutukset tai keskusteluja, jotka voivat rakentaa resumettasi koulujen ja sen jälkeen. He eivät halua olla näyttäneet, että he pysyvät keskusteluissa, syövät kukkuja.
Honestly, this is a lamentation of days lost, I suppose. But what sorts of things are camps doing to make it more attractive to get these, it must be said, not extremely well paid teenagers to come work for them as counselors?
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Chapter 6: What challenges do summer camps face in the current economy?
Täällä oli yksi tyyppi, joka meni ympäristöympäristöön ja esitellyt itseänsä vanhemmille ja liikennettiin sillä tavalla? Kyllä. On lapsia, jotka pitää puhua vanhemmille vanhemmille vanhemmille vanhemmille vanhemmille vanhemmille vanhemmille vanhemmille vanhemmille vanhemmille vanhemmille
Joten koko Sturm und Drangin kautta, ja pitää sanoa koko kohdalla, onko koulutuksen toimintaa hyödyllistä? Onko koulutuksen hyödyllisyys palkkaaminen? Koulutuksen hyödyllisyyden kanssa on todennäköisesti palkkaaminen. Koulutukset sopivat alueita, jotka auttavat heitä päättämään koulujen välillä. Koulutukset auttavat heitä saamaan työtä ja yhteistyötä. He tuntevat, että on todella onnellista pystyä koulutukseen.
Must be pointed out that these camps are not cheap. I think seven weeks for 15 grand, I think is what you pointed out. Yeah, these camps definitely are not cheap. So some of them are $8,000 for four weeks. They're a significant investment. All right, so look, you did the reporting on this when you talked to these people. Give me the subtext, if you would, because as I said up at the top, I understand that the economy has changed, but man, this is kind of sad.
I think the subtext would be that in order for the children to keep going to these camps, they have to really understand what they're getting out of these camps and really be able to verbalize what it is that these camps have given them. The parents are aware and the camps are aware that no one's going to continue to pay them unless they can make a case for it.
Tämä ei tarvitse sanoa, mutta minun täytyy sanoa, että se on erittäin hyvä ongelma. Se on erittäin ensimmäinen maailman ongelma. Tietysti se on erittäin ensimmäinen maailman ongelma ja mielenkiintoisesti joitain koulutuskonsultteja, joita puhuin, sanoivat, että he usein eivät edes suosittele kaupungin kokemuksia, koska se näyttää olevan liian ensimmäisen maailman ongelman ongelma. Oletko käynyt yöpöydän maailmassa, kun olit lapsena?
I went for one year and unfortunately was not invited back. Oh no, oh no. Well, I guess that solved a certain set of problems, didn't it? I guess so, I guess so. More immediate problems, I guess. That's right. Alina Dizik writing in Bloomberg about summer camps and the ways they have changed. Alina, thanks a lot. I appreciate your time. Thanks a lot. Thanks for having me.
This final note on the way out today, which comes with an eye toward the calendar, the entries of which for next Tuesday and Wednesday show us that the Federal Reserve is going to be meeting to talk about interest rates, new chair Kevin Warsh's first meeting. We did a story a couple of weeks ago about how the big central banks, I think it was Mitchell Hartman who did the story for us, about central banks in Canada and the UK, Japan and Europe, as well as the Fed, are being pulled in different directions, which is a little bit unusual. They often move together, those big banks do.
Well, anyway, all of that is too long a wind-up to tell you that today the Bank of Canada held its main interest rate steady, but did warn, and this is their word, of a policy dilemma. Slowish growth and rising inflation, in case that sounds, you know, familiar. Our media production team includes Brian Allison, John Foky, Montana Johnson, Drew Johnston, Gary O'Keefe and Charlton Thorpe. Alex Simpson is the manager of media production. And I'm Kai Risdahl. We will see you tomorrow, everybody.
Tämä on APM.
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