Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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We'll go heavy on the labor market today and we'll grab a bite at a 24-hour diner. From American Public Media, this is Marketplace. En Los Ángeles, soy Kyle Rizdahl. Hoy es viernes 23 de enero. Bien, como siempre, que estéis bien, todos. El viernes, la mañana, con regularidad metronómica, un reporte sobre las declaraciones de primera vez para beneficios de desempleo.
Se avanza mucho ese número, la volatilidad es lo que los economistas llaman. Así que la mayoría de la vez, las declaraciones de primera vez no son realmente bien mencionadas. And today, in fact, those first-time claims barely ticked up just a teeny little bit.
But continuing claims for unemployment help, that is, people who've been getting benefits for at least a week, rose more than expected, which means almost 1.9 million people right now are receiving unemployment benefits. And that is the most we've seen since November of 2021. Marketplace's Kelly Wells has more on why and why it matters.
Some industries saw a fair number of layoffs and hiring freezes in 2024. Allison Stevens is Senior Director of HR Solutions at Paychex and says they're partly to blame. I think in some pockets the market might be flooded with qualified candidates. And on top of that, Stevens says people might also collect unemployment longer because there being...
Much more selective with the roles that they're seeking, such as they have decided they must work remotely or if they are going to go into an office, it's only going to be within a certain geographical distance from their home. Which is actually good for the economy because employees are more likely to stick with and excel at a job if they wait to find one that's best for them.
But there's something else going on here. It's January. January is always like this. Michelle Evermore, con la Fundación Century, se especializa en la insurrección de desempleo.
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Chapter 2: What recent trends are impacting unemployment claims in the U.S.?
So, there are more unemployed people this week, and people are staying unemployed longer. But Elise Gould with the Economic Policy Institute says she's not worried. But when we look at continuing claims as a share of the labor force, it's basically the same as it was pre-COVID. She says, sure, it's not as low as it has been in the past three years when the labor market has been really hot.
But long term? I would say that it's been pretty stable over the last couple of years. You know, maybe a little bit of an uptick. Pero, de nuevo, los desplazamientos permanecen bajos, las cosas todavía son bastante fuertes.
Y recuerda, dice, la población todavía está creciendo, así que podríamos ver más trabajadores desempoblados, pero también vemos más trabajadores en general. Soy Kaylee Wells para Marketplace. El presidente Trump dijo algo hoy que merece mencionar. Hizo una conferencia de video con el Foro Económico del Mundo en Davos y dijo muchas cosas, pero esta es en nuestro wheelhouse.
Central Bank Independence on Monetary Policy is kind of a bedrock of stability in this economy, as we talked about a lot before this election.
That is item number one. Item number two is that a lot of the president's proposed policies are in and of themselves inflationary, which, absent political interference, would dictate higher inflation. Traders on Wall Street again seem to have been in a buying mood. We'll have the details when we do the numbers.
The corporate news of this Thursday comes to us from Detroit, Michigan, the headquarters of the General Motors Corporation, which said today it's going to try and grab a bigger slice of the luxury EV market, specifically with a fancier version of its Cadillac Lyric SUV. But when the average price of an EV already tops $50,000, how big a market can there really be for something even pricier?
Marketplace's Nancy Marshall Gensler is on that one.
The price of this latest Lyric EV starts at nearly $80,000, hardly a bargain. But in the EV world, luxury is in. The EV market is lux-heavy. Elaine Buckberg is a former chief economist at GM. She says in model year 2024, there were more than 30 EV models that she considers luxury or premium, compared to only around 20 cheaper models.
And she says EV buyers wouldn't necessarily blink at an $80,000 price tag. One reason? Buckberg estimates with a gas price of, say, $3.15 a gallon. An EV owner could expect to save about... $1,000 a $1,200 por año porque es más barato cargar en casa versus comprar gas. También puedes obtener una larga rama de batería con un EV de mayor precio. Y luego hay los primeros adoptantes.
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Chapter 3: How does the current labor market compare to the pre-pandemic period?
Muy bien, un lugar de destino tercero, ¿verdad? Tienes tu casa, tienes tu trabajo y ahora el diner de Kellogg's, parece que.
And I think diners have always served that purpose. It was heartwarming to see that the diners still serve that purpose.
Yeah, the other thing they do, or I guess the other thing they are not, is fast food, right? Because a lot of places, and look, I don't go to many all-night diners here in Los Angeles, but I bet fast food places outnumber 24-hour diners by a significant amount.
They definitely do, and I brought up fast food establishments to these customers asking, you know, why not go to, you know, a McDonald's at 3 o'clock in the morning, and a lot of them spoke Sí. Sí. Sí. Sí.
Sí.
Fue muy interesante y definitivamente no sabían quién era. No sabían que era una crítica de restaurantes. Estaba ahí con un castillo roto de amigos.
Le dije a mis amigos que siguieran enviando porque necesitábamos justificar nuestra existencia. Espera, esperá.
Entonces, tú estabas ahí de 8 a 8, pero tenías amigos que venían durante un par de horas de descanso.
¿Eso es el problema? Sí, exactamente. Tenía una tarjeta, así que tenía amigos que venían de 8 a 11. ¿Quién hizo el descanso de las 2 de la mañana? Eso es lo que quiero saber. ¿Eso es como el amigo más bajo en tu tótem?
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Chapter 4: What are the reasons behind the recent changes in job seekers' behavior?
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This is Marketplace. I'm Kai Risdell. February 2020, going on five years ago now, was the last gasp of full month data that we had for the pre-pandemic economy. And things were going pretty well. The labor market was on a roll, adding jobs at a healthy clip. Unemployment was at 3.5%. By April of 2020, of course, the pandemic in full swing. 22 million jobs disappeared.
And unemployment peaked that month just shy of 15%. Y parecía, al menos un poco, si estamos siendo honestos, que las cosas nunca volverían a la normalidad en este mercado de trabajo. Pero lo hicieron. Como saben, ahora estamos muy adelante en cuanto a trabajo, de donde estábamos en los tiempos anteriores. Pero no es como si nada hubiera cambiado. Aquí está el Marketplace de Mitchell Hartman.
There are now about 7 million more jobs in the U.S. economy than in February 2020. But there'd be 11 million more if we'd kept adding jobs at the same pace as we did in the five years before the pandemic. So we've fallen behind the pre-pandemic trend, right? Not exactly, says Harvard economist Jason Furman.
Right now we have 3.5 million more jobs than the Congressional Budget Office had been expecting for this point in time prior to COVID.
Here's how the math works. In the five years before the pandemic, unemployment fell from 5.5% to 3.5%. But no one expected the economy to keep adding jobs at the same rip-roaring pace over the next five years, which would have meant unemployment falling to like 1.5%, which economists will tell you pretty much can't happen.
What did happen, despite the pandemic, is job creation surged ahead of expectations.
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