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Merryn Talks Money

Emergency Podcast: Why Britain's Political Turmoil Will End In Crisis

13 May 2026

Transcription

Transcript generated automatically by AI and may contain errors.

Chapter 1: What political turmoil is Britain currently facing?

0.031 - 38.899 Unknown

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48.007 - 49.769 Merryn Somerset Webb

Bloomberg Audio Studios.

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Chapter 2: Why is Keir Starmer's leadership being questioned?

50.27 - 72.259 Merryn Somerset Webb

Podcasts. Radio. News. Welcome to the Merrin Talks Money Market Wrap, where we talk about the biggest moves in markets this week and what is driving them. I'm Merrin Somerset Webb, editor-at-large for Bloomberg UK Wealth's

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73.538 - 84.412 John Stepek

And I'm John Steppe, senior reporter at Bloomberg and author of the Mindstilled newsletter. I was just carried away because this is an emergency podcast.

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84.432 - 89.319 Merryn Somerset Webb

This is not an emergency podcast. This is a regular podcast just done slightly more quickly than usual.

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89.88 - 92.043 John Stepek

That's it. Stop spoiling my fight.

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92.063 - 109.87 Merryn Somerset Webb

All right. Now, come on, John. There's a lot going on. And we are speaking on the 13th of May, mid-afternoon. And normally I don't bother telling people exactly when we're speaking, but I'm telling them today because there is a lot going on. We're just sitting here, aren't we? We're waiting for a resignation from Keir Starmer or a mention of a resignation or a possibility of resignation.

110.251 - 116.363 Merryn Somerset Webb

And at the moment, we are hearing that possibly he might announce a possible resignation tomorrow or something like that.

Chapter 3: What potential crises could lead to political change in Britain?

116.884 - 118.908 Merryn Somerset Webb

Or maybe next week or maybe in a month or maybe in two months.

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119.209 - 137.064 John Stepek

What I've heard is that Wes Streeton is considering resigning tomorrow and then launching a leadership battle. Just to be very clear, it may be completely wrong here. I'm not a political expert, but I don't think Keir Starmer's ever going to resign as involuntarily go. I think they will be dragging him out in number 10.

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137.384 - 144.197 Merryn Somerset Webb

As I read somewhere this morning, he's giving all the kids a great lessons in resilience and grit and we're finally finding out what he's good at.

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144.177 - 157.295 John Stepek

Yeah, and it was funny because... Hanging on in the face of adversity. Go Stormer. They all sort of tried to make this sort of like big thing of him being ruthless and then they're surprised when he is actually literally ruthless in terms of protecting his own position. But yes.

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157.595 - 173.116 Merryn Somerset Webb

Anyway, listen, so he's not going to go by himself. Probably not. They need to push him. And even if he did, political uncertainty isn't going anywhere because who knows who comes next. And if it ends up with the party being shoved further left, even further left, then the bond market isn't going to like that. Either.

173.136 - 179.582 Merryn Somerset Webb

So it's hard to see how his resignation or his forced resignation anyway would improve matters.

180.062 - 200.442 John Stepek

I mean, not from the bond market's point of view. It depends. I mean, I think that people object to this because, you know, they think, oh, gosh, it's more infighting. But at the end of the day, the country has actually given its verdict quite strongly in the local election. And if I'm honest, I don't really have a big issue with parties changing leaders.

200.422 - 216.27 John Stepek

in the middle of the game if it is clear that the population is not happy with the way things are going. I think that's kind of clear. Yeah, and I don't think we need to necessarily have a general election to give them a mandate. But yeah, so we've got streeting. The candidates so far that we're aware of are streeting.

216.25 - 227.907 John Stepek

Possibly Angela Rayner, although she seems to be falling in behind Andy Burnham. So basically that's it. You get Andy Burnham, who isn't an MP, but they're all trying to find some convoluted way to let him stand.

Chapter 4: How does the divided Labour Party impact leadership challenges?

228.488 - 242.828 John Stepek

And Streeting is regarded as being on the right of the Labour Party. To most listeners who may have a more kind of neutral political perspective, that doesn't mean he's right wing. It just means that he's less addicted to spending than the people on the left.

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242.848 - 264.804 Merryn Somerset Webb

I mean, he's definitely a little bit more pro-market. You know, he's been more pro-market on public services. You know, he's been talking about using private sector in the NHS. He's a little bit less pro-relentless expansion of welfare than some other people. A little bit more... More hardline on crime, maybe. He's kind of blurred out. A tiny bit more pro-business.

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265.164 - 270.054 Merryn Somerset Webb

You know, you could call him slightly right of the rest of the Labour Party.

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270.074 - 289.378 John Stepek

Yeah, he still believes in a decent sized state, but he's not going to sit there and go, yeah, the bond market, yeah, whatever, that can go away. You know, he's somebody who actually understands roughly how things work. Andy Burnham clearly keeps sort of trying to allude to a way to get around the bond market.

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289.398 - 307.976 John Stepek

He's clearly aware that it matters, but it's not clear, I would say, from what he says or from what his supporters say, particularly, that they really get what it's for or, you know, why it's there or why it's a constraint. And I think that's something that can make the, obviously will make the gilts market cannot worry. Yeah.

308.777 - 326.485 Merryn Somerset Webb

And we have to be very clear on what's going on here already. And the UK gilt market is, there's lots of talk about, oh, maybe our debt to GDP ratios aren't on that bad relative to other people's. And maybe there's stability ahead, et cetera, et cetera. But you can't get away from the fact that net public debt to GDP is pushing 100% in the UK.

326.706 - 334.918 Merryn Somerset Webb

You can't get away from the fact that Rachel Reeves has pushed up spending massively since she got in, both on current spending and what we've might call or not call their investment spending.

335.198 - 342.346 John Stepek

Yeah, and it's just the tax take that's also shot up that is keeping that in check. It's not because they've been careful or anything like that.

342.566 - 362.408 Merryn Somerset Webb

So, you know, there is a reason why UK debt is priced at a much higher level or at a higher yield than other debt inside the G7 or what, 60 plus basis points above everybody else. And the reason for that is that we have horrible debt levels and absolutely no expectation in the minds of most people that anything is going to change. Yeah.

Chapter 5: What are the implications of a leadership change for the UK economy?

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Chapter 6: How can historical crises inform current political strategies?

446.74 - 467.559 Unknown

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524.422 - 538.965 John Stepek

And also we've consistently too high inflation, which is basically because, as Simon French of Parneur Libre keeps pointing out, we basically ration every part of the economy that we need to grow without inflation.

539.606 - 555.006 Merryn Somerset Webb

And this debt level is hideous for public spending. So at the beginning of the pandemic, we were spending well under 5% of government spending was on government. debt interest and last year it was 8% and now it's going to be significantly higher than that. This keeps going up and up and up.

555.026 - 561.672 Merryn Somerset Webb

When you're suddenly spending 10% of government spending is on interest payments alone, you know you're in trouble.

Chapter 7: What role does public sentiment play in political leadership?

658.178 - 681.452 John Stepek

With that, it was the IMF that created the external shock that gave Jim Callaghan the permission to stand up in front of his party and say, look, need to get a grip. We can't spend money the way we've been spending it. And obviously still get kicked out of the next election. And perhaps we need something similar, some kind of bond market, I guess, guilt market strike or an FX.

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682.934 - 694.35 John Stepek

I don't like using the word crisis, but the pound falling a lot. to make people wake up and realise, actually, no, we need a change of direction. And that's regardless of who they put in at the top.

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694.55 - 706.647 Merryn Somerset Webb

It is. You hear this more and more, John, people saying, well, the UK needs an existential crisis to help it pull itself together. It's not going to just happen. Something horrible has to happen before this ridiculous gobbling stops and things change.

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706.907 - 734.258 John Stepek

Which is... Unfortunate, but yeah, I mean, that's it. Crises create the opportunity to change things. And I guess they always do. It's very rare to see proper change happen in the absence of a crisis. Certainly, you know, in our history and also the history of Europe more widely, maybe that's the buy signal. You know, whenever everything goes horribly, pear-shaped, I don't know.

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734.278 - 735.059 Merryn Somerset Webb

Wait for the crisis.

735.499 - 736.66 John Stepek

Wait for the crisis.

736.701 - 738.062 Merryn Somerset Webb

The crisis will be the catalyst.

738.194 - 738.474 John Stepek

Yeah.

739.075 - 742.639 Merryn Somerset Webb

Okay, and it's not that far away, one would guess, at this rate.

Chapter 8: What solutions do experts suggest for Britain's political issues?

765.945 - 789.7 Merryn Somerset Webb

That can't go on and And definitely you can't go on with this anti-growth stuff and definitely at some point something has to change and at some point the UK has to be let loose to grow again and all the wonderful things that we often talk about about the UK. This great base that we have, our amazing technology sector, our astonishing ability to innovate, our great education sector.

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789.68 - 808.827 Merryn Somerset Webb

The fact is we've talked about a couple of times recently the very high levels of savings that the UK population has, etc. We are ready to go if only we could have a politician who could put in place the policies to allow the UK to succeed. Let's not talk ourselves around in circles and get upset. We're just going to have to leave it there before we upset ourselves.

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808.847 - 812.773 Merryn Somerset Webb

Right now, the best we can hope for is the kind of crisis that lets us restart everything.

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812.833 - 814.135 John Stepek

Yeah. Control-Alt-Delete.

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814.115 - 819.993 Merryn Somerset Webb

Yeah. And right now, the next few weeks, we don't see any particularly good outcomes and nor do we see any particularly good candidates.

820.534 - 820.755 John Stepek

No.

821.377 - 842.295 Merryn Somerset Webb

But we have all learned about how amazingly resilient Keir Starmer is and that's something. That is something. Thanks for listening to this week's Merrin Talks Money Debrief. If you like our show, rate, review and subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts. Also be sure to follow me and John on X or Twitter at MerrinSW and John underscore Stepak.

842.556 - 852.913 Merryn Somerset Webb

This episode was produced by Sam Asadi, production support and sound design by Moses Andam. Questions and comments on this show and all our shows are always welcome. Our show email is merrinmoney at bloomberg.net.

858.378 - 881.606 Unknown

This is Saigon, the story of my family and of the country that shaped us. From iHeart Podcasts, Saigon. You don't think I'm serious about a free Vietnam? One city, a divided country, and the war that tore America apart. This is for Vietnam. They're pouring petrol all over here. Freedom for Vietnam! There's a fire coming to this country and it's going to burn out everything.

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