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Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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Welcome to the Merrin Talks Money Market Wrap, where we talk about the biggest moves in markets this week and what is driving them. I am Merrin Somerset-Webb, Editor-at-Large for Bloomberg UK Wealth.
And I'm John Stevick, Senior Reporter and author of the Money Distilled Newsletter.
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Chapter 2: What are the current market trends and earnings driving the bull market?
Yeah, absolutely. 1999 was our trial issues and the first couple came out in early 2000. Although we were very, very bearish on the dot-com boom. We're bearish people, so... But nonetheless, that's when it launched. But that was because that was the time when people were prepared to finance a financial magazine because everyone was interested in markets and money and finance.
Everyone wanted more and more information. So that's when people were prepared to put up the money. So presumably it was the same in 1929. People were prepared to put up the money for business week in a way they wouldn't have been able to otherwise. And I think just to be clear, you know, business week still exists and money week still exists. You know, you can survive these things. Exactly.
Anyway, back to earnings, back to earnings. Everything that you will have received in the last couple of days, John, and every single thing that I have received in the last couple of days is all about, all about earnings and how everything is fine and how S&P 500 earnings are going to, this is a good one. I can't remember who this came from.
S&P 500 earnings growth about to break out on the upside of a 90 year channel.
Wow. That's good. TA.
You know, it's not just big tech. It's not just big AI. Across the board, across the board, we're seeing earnings surprises. So it's all marvelous. So from the point of view of most people looking at this, they're like, well, you know, stock prices are based on expected forward earnings. Expected forward earnings are great. So everything is absolutely fine.
I did see one, one kind of interesting one, which pointed out that Given what's going on with earnings, the peg ratio, so the forward P divided by long term's earning growth is down to only just over one. And back in the old days, we used to say if the peg ratio was one, everything was fine. So there you go. Everything is fine, unless earnings growth expectations are wrong.
Yeah. I think we can wrap this one up now. Just say, yeah, get out there and buy. Go crazy, guys. Knock yourselves out.
Although I was also looking back. I was looking back because, you know, you look at it and you think, well, is this like the end of the 60s? Is this like the 70s? Is it possible that, in fact, earnings growth was really great just before everything went wrong in the 1970s? And guess what? Yeah.
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Chapter 3: How are magazine covers influencing market sentiment?
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You've been writing about something much more interesting, and I want to talk about that because regular listeners and readers will remember the challenge set to me by our colleagues in America. When was it? Last year, wasn't it? The end of last year to go out and buy a single share in AI so that I would have it when the great IPOs came.
And it turned out it was impossible to buy a share in OpenAI, which I think I'm heartily grateful, really. But you have views on those IPOs, John.
Yeah.
Well, I just think it's really interesting because one of the things that I think it's easy to forget is that stock markets, like any other market, the supply, the overall supply of stuff actually matters. And it was actually really convenient because our colleague Simon White over on the kind of very, very serious side of the business, he's the
He writes a column called Macroscope, which I think only goes to the terminal subscribers. But he was writing about share buybacks. And he was making the point that share buybacks are the biggest source in the US market of equity coming out of the market, of de-equitisation.
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Chapter 4: What historical events relate to today's market conditions?
Yeah, I mean, I guess it's that whole thing about there not being any voter base for getting rid of inflation. I don't think that's just the UK, by the way.
I mean, I think at this point it's a Western issue. There is no appetite anywhere for dealing with the core of the problem.
Of all the countries, actually, the UK's, at least its theoretical fiscal pathway, is actually pretty good compared to a lot of them.
Yeah, but you know that's nonsense, John. You know it's nonsense.
Yeah, but at least, or not at least, but... At least we're pretending better than some other people. There's a discussion about it.
But no one believes it. If anyone believed it, would guilt heels be so high?
Well, I mean, that's true. Well, I mean, the only thing I would say about guilt yields, I think guilt yields are a function of inflation rather than panicking about the deficit or the debt at the moment.
Aren't those things connected?
Yeah. So inflation has consistently been about 1 percentage point higher than anywhere else. So if you want a real interest rate from a gilt, you have to charge the people who issue it more to compensate for that. And I mean, yes, you can argue the inflation is partly because we've never had brilliantly controlled public finances.
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