Melt-Up or Mirage? Markets Ignore Everything but Earnings
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Welcome to the Merrin Talks Money Market Wrap, where we talk about the biggest moves in markets this week and what is driving them. I am Merrin Somerset-Webb, Editor-at-Large for Bloomberg UK Wealth.
And I'm John Stevick, Senior Reporter and author of the Money Distilled Newsletter.
Right, John, the bull market is back big time. We don't even need to bother talking about what's happening in the Middle East or what is not happening in the Middle East. We have no idea. We're just going to leave it there.
And also the market doesn't care. It doesn't care.
The market literally doesn't care. The market doesn't care about anything except for what? At the moment, it's earnings numbers, right? So we're having an amazing earnings season and everyone you talk to just says, well, this is just the most massive of bull markets and it has to be because it's everybody has some kind of earning surprise and now we're moving into a proper melt-up situation and this is all marvellous AI-tastic.
And no one can get enough compute. Can't get enough compute. Just no compute anywhere. Electricity. Does not compute. Yeah, no.
So anyway... We could just repeat words of each other for hours here. But look, you've got this amazing... You tell us about earnings.
Go on, you tell us. It's just like the NASDAQ is up 11% since the Iran war kicked off. So I know we weren't going to mention it, but it's just one of those things where you can... Okay, so clearly... the bear case is not being made here. And I thought it was interesting that the magazine cover indicator has once again paid off just so dramatically well.
Which magazine would that be, John? Which magazine would that be?
It does sound tongue-in-cheek and poor old economists, but it's not. I mean, the reason The Economist works well for this is because The Economist is the voice of the closest thing you get to the crossover between mainstream and business news. So biggest audience for that kind of thing. So when you see something on the cover that's related to markets, then it must be in the price. It can't not be in the price because by definition, everyone already knows it. And when it comes to the oil market, The Economist has got particularly strong form. Because one of the most famous covers they ever did was back in the late 90s, when they did a cover that was kind of, the headline was drowning in oil. And the idea was basically that the oil price was never going to go up again.
And basically, that was the bottom forever, the lowest price that oil ever got to. Until that time, it went negative in 2020. Doesn't matter. And so on last week, they came out with a cover saying, basically, you people are crazy. The oil price is far too low. And of course, since that cover came out, the oil price is down by 10%.
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