Do big football clubs win more penalties?
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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This is More or Less, the programme in which the numbers always add up. We make an edition of the programme for BBC Radio 4, but this episode was broadcast on the World Service. Hello and welcome to More or Less on the BBC World Service. We're your weekly guide to the numbers in the news and in life, and I'm Tim Harford. This week, we find out the secrets of life on Earth with the superstar statistician Hans Rosling. But first, are big football clubs favoured by referees? That was the complaint after Fulham were recently denied a penalty against Manchester United. We don't have the broadcasting rights to play the key moment, but Ruth Alexander is standing by ready with an action replay.
Right, I'm Danny Murphy, OK? I've got the ball, I'm running really fast, I'm about to shoot, but oh no, Michael Carrick's after me!
Boo! I want that ball!
Ah! Penalty? No, a penalty was not awarded.
Really? Hang on, are you speaking as Danny or Ruth?
Ruth now. So the referee did not award a penalty against Manchester United and it was controversial. Many fans of smaller clubs would say it's because referees are biased towards big clubs playing in front of their home crowd. It's a widespread belief summed up by one of Manchester City's executives, Patrick Vieira.
When United play at home, they may get some advantage that some other team will not get. But if you go into Spain, it's the same. If you go into Italy, it's the same.
Is he right? There's only one way to tell. Check the statistics. And the sports data specialists at Opta have gathered the data for us. Every English Premier League game since 2006. And the answer is no.
So on average, Manchester United have conceded one penalty every 12 home games since 2006, while Fulham have conceded fewer, roughly one penalty every 14 games at home.
So if you're a team playing away, it's easier to get a penalty if you go to Old Trafford than if you go to Craven Cottage?
Yes, but the team which have conceded the fewest, one penalty only every 18 games, is one of the top dogs, Chelsea. However, referee bias in favour of the big clubs isn't the obvious explanation it seems here, according to a sports correspondent with a keen eye on the statistics at the UK's Times newspaper, Bill Edgar.
Given that Chelsea have been among the most successful clubs over that period, you would expect them to have given away the fewest penalties simply because the opposition are generally weaker and therefore will spend less time in Chelsea's penalty area. So there will be less opportunity for them to win penalties.
But Patrick Vieira also complains that the refs are biased towards the big clubs in Spain and Italy. And Real Madrid's manager, Jose Mourinho, is frequently up in arms over what he sees as bias towards Barcelona. So we asked the sports statisticians at Opta to look at every La Liga match involving Barcelona and Real Madrid since 2006.
And the stats show that Real Madrid conceded one penalty roughly every 11 games in front of their home crowd, while Barcelona conceded one in every 10.
So, as so often, the data reveals the truth. It's Jose Mourinho's own team, Real Madrid, who have a better penalty average.
Do big football clubs get more penalties at home in the Premier League?
And Real Madrid didn't just concede fewer penalties at home, they won more too. Roughly one every four home games, compared to Barcelona's one in five. And if you look at who's been awarded the most penalties in the English Premier League, there's an interesting story there too. Manchester United have been given one penalty every four and a half games they played at home on average, putting them in second place.
What example sparked the investigation into Manchester United and penalty decisions?
In first place is Manchester City. Yes, Patrick Vieira's own club. They've been awarded a penalty every four games.
Well, thank you, Ruth. Of course, the only way to test for sure whether large football clubs are getting an undue advantage from the referees would be to somehow anonymise every club and every player and see whether it made a difference.
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Chapters
4 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:01–3:43
2
Do big football clubs get more penalties at home in the Premier League?
3:43–4:08
3
What example sparked the investigation into Manchester United and penalty decisions?
4:08–9:29
4
What do Opta statistics reveal about home penalties for top English clubs since 2006?
9:29–9:49