Does a full moon make crime rates go up?
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What historical beliefs exist about the full moon and crime?
Hello and thanks for downloading the More or Less podcast. We're the programme that looks at the numbers in the news, life and in the waxing and waning of crime. And I'm Lizzie McNeill. It's 2007, in Brighton, Southern England, UK. A city not unfamiliar with antisocial behaviour, Inspector Andy Park decided to look into what factors cause crime to peak within the city. He studied violent crimes recorded over the past year and noticed that there was an uptick every time it was payday and during the full moon. Now, people have long suspected the moon of meddling with our minds. In fact, the word lunacy comes from the Latin lunaticus, meaning moonstruck. Ouch. Ouch. One listener, Richard, saw references to the moon's criminal effects, but was sceptical.
It is said that crime rates go up when it's a full moon. Is there any statistical validity to this?
We all know the moon has a dark side, but is it really that dark? This week, we're finally holding the moon to account and asking, does the full moon make the crime rate go up?
What evidence is there linking full moons to criminal behavior?
Many people believe that the full moon causes changes in behavior, but just because people believe it doesn't make it true.
That's Eric Chudler, a neuroscientist from the University of Washington who's been collecting studies on the effect of the moon on behavior for... Well, many a moon.
People have thought that perhaps because the gravitational effect of the moon and the sun on our tides make changes, perhaps because the body and the brain is full of water, that's perhaps why the moon might affect our behaviour.
Now, while this theory has a certain poetic charm to it, the science says otherwise. Sure. The moon's gravitational pull is powerful enough to shift entire oceans, but when it comes to humans, the laws of physics dictate that we're simply too small for it to make any meaningful difference. No tidal surges of bad behaviour, sadly.
The gravitational pull of the sun and the moon on the Earth during a full moon is about the same as it is as a new moon when we can't see the moon at all. The gravitational pull is about the same. So the only difference is the reflection of the sun on the moon that we see. So why aren't people concerned with a new moon? Why are they only concerned with a full moon?
Hmm. Why indeed?
How does the gravitational pull of the moon affect human behavior?
Still, minor obstacles like scientific evidence have never been particularly effective at spoiling a good story. To spoil a good story, you really need social science.
There's been a number of studies over the past 50 years or so where people have looked at the statistics behind the correlation between the full moon or the phase of the moon and crime.
One study from Australia analysed the calls made to Brisbane police between 2004 and 2011. concerning incidents of things like domestic violence, rape, murder, fatal traffic accidents and mental health crises. The data showed no increase during nights of the full moon compared to non-full moon nights, neither in volume nor type of incidents. In fact, the majority of studies show no correlation between a full moon and criminal activity.
In my mining of the published literature, these are in peer-reviewed studies, there are about 24 or 25 studies that have looked specifically at criminal activity. And I would say that out of those 24, 25 studies, three or four have shown a positive correlation between the full moon and any abnormal behavior. The other ones have shown no correlation at all
One study even found a decrease. But what about those three or four studies that showed a positive correlation? Were they in towns inhabited by werewolves or more lunally sensitive folk? Alas, probably not.
We need to control for when did that full moon happen?
What do recent studies say about the correlation between full moons and crime rates?
For example, did they happen on weekends? Did they happen on holidays? And things like that. Also, did those studies happen on cloudy days where people could see the moon? And a lot of those variables just are not controlled in most studies.
Cloud cover arguably does matter. After all, as all Harry Potter aficionados know, Remus Lupin managed to remain perfectly human
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Chapters
7 chapters
1
What historical beliefs exist about the full moon and crime?
0:00–1:25
2
What evidence is there linking full moons to criminal behavior?
1:25–2:50
3
How does the gravitational pull of the moon affect human behavior?
2:50–4:33
4
What do recent studies say about the correlation between full moons and crime rates?
4:33–5:44
5
Why do some studies show a connection between full moons and crime?
5:44–7:23
6
What role does confirmation bias play in beliefs about the full moon?
7:23–8:39
7
What conclusions can we draw about the full moon's impact on crime?
8:39–8:57