Factchecking America
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Hello.
Welcome to More or Less on the BBC World Service, presented this week by me, Jan Wong. Oh, that was a bit rubbish, wasn't it? Radio's harder than it looks. I'll try that again. Hi. Welcome to More or Less, taking a numbers-eye view of the world with me, Jan Wong. Better, don't you think? Yeah. Right. One, two, three. Right. Are we ready to record? We've been recording all along, Jan. What? Well, I guess it can happen to anyone, even American presidential candidates.
There are 47%...
Mitt Romney was secretly recorded at a fundraising event, claiming that 47% of Americans pay no income tax. His point was that such people are reliant on state handouts, and so would never vote for him because he's not so keen on, well, state handouts. Now, the US presidential campaign is fertile ground for anyone interested in the misuse of numbers, so we thought we'd devote all of this week's programme to examining questionable claims made by both sides, starting with Mr Romney and his 47%. Charlotte Pritchard, you've been on the case.
I have. The main surprise here is that on the face of it, Mitt Romney is about right. Last year, 46% of Americans paid no federal income tax. But the idea that all those people are living off state handouts, or even paying no tax at all, is very wide of the mark. I've been speaking to Roberta Williams from the Tax Policy Centre, an independent think tank which came up with these numbers in the first place.
Mitt Romney misinterpreted the meaning of those 46%. 60% of those people who don't pay income tax work and therefore pay payroll taxes, the taxes that support our Social Security program and Medicare program. Of the remainder, more than half are elderly, retirees who have worked but are now retired, and their incomes are either too low to pay tax or because we give special preference for Social Security benefits, they don't pay tax on that basis.
So nearly two-thirds of the people Mitt Romney was talking about are actually in work and paying taxes. But in a way, the second part of Mitt Romney's claim is even more interesting. The idea that, in effect, he can ignore poor Americans because they'll never vote Republican. Is he right? No, he's not. That's Carol Doughty from the Pew Research Center in Washington, D.C.
In our polling, you can see a variety of evidence that shows... In fact, one of the stronger groups for Republicans generally in recent years has been, you know, white working class men. They've moved more to the Republican Party in recent years. This is a pretty solid trend in recent years.
Carol Doughty from the Pew Research Center, which describes itself as a fact tank. I presume that's some sort of evidence-based war machine. Now, all this raises a question. How much do politicians actually know about their voters?
That's a good question. For example, both sides in the US election have talked a lot about the middle class, who they say they want to help.
What prompted this episode's US election factchecks and the Romney 47% story?
But there seems to be some confusion about where the middle in America actually is. Here's Mitt Romney speaking on ABC News.
The fundamentals of my tax policy are these. Number one, reduce tax burdens on middle-income people. So no one can say my plan is going to raise taxes on middle-income people because principle number one is keep the burden down on middle-income taxpayers. Is $100,000 middle income? No, middle income is $200,000, $250,000 and less.
So according to Mitt Romney, middle income is $200,000 to $250,000 or less. But it's not just the Republicans. President Obama's been boasting about middle-class tax cuts, and in that he includes households whose income is under that magic number, $250,000. Roberton Williams from America's Tax Policy Center says anyone who thinks a family on a quarter of a million dollars is even close to the middle is way, way out.
The median income in the United States is just about $50,000. So this is much, much higher than the median income. Most people are well, well below those numbers. And in fact, we estimate that only about 2% or 3% of Americans have incomes above those thresholds.
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Chapters
4 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–3:14
2
What prompted this episode's US election factchecks and the Romney 47% story?
3:14–6:26
3
Does Romney's '47% pay no income tax' claim match the Tax Policy Center data?
6:26–8:09
4
Who are the people included in the 'no federal income tax' group and do they pay other taxes?
8:09–9:31