Fergie Time
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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Welcome to More or Less on the BBC World Service, your weekly guide to statistical wizardry and numerical sleight of hand.
What question about 'Fergie Time' does More or Less investigate?
I'm Tim Harford. A listener, Lucas Morrow, emailed moreorless at bbc.co.uk asking whether Fergie time exists or is just another zombie statistic that won't die. Football fans may know exactly what he means, but let me translate – When Sir Alex Ferguson's Manchester United team are behind towards the end of a match, do they get an extra helping of added time just when they need it to mount a comeback? Now this implies that referees aren't doing their jobs properly. We asked former referee Graham Powell what he thought of that.
When you're refereeing, you don't believe it. However, when you actually analyse and think psychologically what happens, the pressure that's on you when you referee at Old Trafford, or at the moment the Etihad or the Emirates or Stamford Bridge, the pressure that is implied upon you must have an effect, even if subconsciously.
What do referees say about pressure influencing added injury time?
You're sitting there going, OK, there's a couple of subs, a couple of goals, that's wasted time, injury there, three minutes, maybe four. You find yourself saying five. That's something which you then, sitting down and analysing it, you kind of go, so where did that extra minute come from?
Some mostly non-Manchester United fans, I think it's safe to assume, accuse United of getting more added time than every other team, and they've dubbed this phenomenon Fergie Time, after the manager Sir Alex Ferguson. But football allegiances aside, let's look at the numbers. I spoke with Duncan Alexander from Opta Sports, who collate all the data from the football leagues. He says the phenomenon of Fergie Time goes back to the very first Premier League season, 1992-93, when Manchester United played Sheffield Wednesday.
The game came to 90 minutes, the referee rewarded quite a lot of injury time and they scored and went on to win the match and win the title.
How does Opta's historical data trace the origin of the 'Fergie Time' myth?
And I think it's a sort of bit of confirmation bias really because ever since then, every time United have been given quite a lot of injury time, it's sort of flagged up in people's heads. They've gone, well, United have got more Fergie time again.
Well, let's have a look at the numbers. I suppose you want to look at second half injury time because no one really cares how much time is added on at the end of the first half because you're in the middle of the game. What do we find?
This season, United have had the most. So it's true.
Well, it's true.
Do Manchester United actually receive more second‑half injury time this season?
It's the true.
Time is a fact. The numbers don't lie.
Well, that might be the case. But then last season they had the least.
Ah, OK. That would make things a little different.
Yes.
I suppose, actually, we might be more interested in... situations where United are losing, or I suppose even when United are drawing?
Well, I had a look at the length of games for Manchester United over the last three seasons. In games they lost, they had an average of four minutes and 37 seconds, compared to three minutes and 18 seconds when they won, and draws were about in the middle. How does that compare to the other teams? Well, I looked at the other so-called top teams, I mean, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City and Tottenham over the same period. And other than Chelsea, all of them had longer games. Their games were longer on average when they were losing, when they lost the match.
How do game outcomes (win/draw/loss) affect average added time for United?
So, you know, if there is a bias inherent with referees, it's not just towards Manchester United. It looks like it's to all big teams.
But can we account for other events in a match? Some matches have more substitutions or longer goal celebrations, which would increase the added time. Or when a big team such as Manchester United are losing or even merely drawing, their opponents could be desperate to hang on to their position. They might waste time. The goalkeeper might hold on to the ball. Gabriela Labrecht is from Decision Technologies, who also analyse sports statistics.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–0:21
2
What question about 'Fergie Time' does More or Less investigate?
0:21–1:14
3
What do referees say about pressure influencing added injury time?
1:14–2:05
4
How does Opta's historical data trace the origin of the 'Fergie Time' myth?
2:05–2:31
5
Do Manchester United actually receive more second‑half injury time this season?
2:31–3:17
6
How do game outcomes (win/draw/loss) affect average added time for United?
3:17–4:22
7
How does Manchester United's added time compare to other top Premier League clubs?
4:22–5:59
8
Can match events and home advantage explain extra added time for strong teams?
5:59–9:26