More alive than dead?
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
You're listening to a download from the BBC. This is More or Less. We make an edition of the programme for BBC Radio 4, but this is a download of a special edition broadcast on the World Service. Hello and welcome to More or Less on the BBC World Service. We're your weekly guide to the numbers in the news and in life, and I'm Tim Harford. In a moment, we'll be putting our in-depth investigative resources into action to look at Michelle Obama's reported love for lingerie shopping – But first, we'll attempt to slay yet another zombie statistic, one that no matter how often you think you've cut it down, it picks itself up and lumbers on. This is a question that we get asked more than any other on More or Less, and perhaps one which taps into people's fear of a population explosion.
The question is, are there really more people alive today than have ever lived? It's often quoted as a fact. Take this example from a BBC reporter, ever the tactful colleagues will leave him anonymous, back in 2008.
It's sobering to think that there are already more people alive today than have ever lived and died in the whole history of the human race.
Now it looks like this zombie has been spotted once again. Both Norman Hester and Maureen Erskine emailed more or less at bbc.co.uk to say they'd heard it recently and wondered if it's true. But what really spurred us into action was this unusual angle in an email from loyal listener Richard Hales.
In 1968, Arthur C. Clarke stated in 2001 A Space Odyssey that behind every man now alive stand 30 ghosts, for that's the ratio by which the dead outnumber the living. Was that true? And how has that ratio between the living and the dead changed?
MUSIC
It's always dangerous questioning the wisdom of those deemed to be a genius by their fans, such as science fiction author Arthur C. Clarke. But we are fearless on More or Less, and we know it's our duty to get to the bottom of it. To test Arthur C. Clarke's theory and lay a zombie to rest, we turn to Wendy Baldwin, president of the Population Reference Bureau in Washington, D.C.
If you look at the data we published... There are 7 billion people today. We estimate that overall there have been 107. So that would be a ratio of 1 to 15, which makes it look like Arthur C. Clarke was wrong, but that's not actually the case because he was making his statement in 1968. And when he made that statement, there were maybe three and a half billion people currently living on Earth. So if you use our method, that would be one living person to 29 dead. He said 30. I'd say that's a draw.
Yeah, surprisingly accurate from Arthur C. Clarke. Or maybe that should be no surprise to his fans. What made the Population Reference Bureau work these numbers out? I mean, it seems a curious number to calculate.
Yes, it is a little bit. In the 1970s, there was a lot of interest in this because some people were saying that 75% of all the people ever born were on the planet today in the 70s. And our demographer, Carl Hobb, looked at that and said, I wonder if that's really true.
Because it gives the sense of very, very rapid population growth, right? That's right. But it was wrong.
But it's not so straightforward to figure out what a good number is. First of all, you have to figure out When are you starting from? I would say that there's probably fair agreement that humans have been occupying the Earth for about 50,000 years B.C.
So before then, you just say, well, they weren't human. They were our ancestors.
They weren't Homo sapiens.
Are there really more people alive today than have ever lived?
They were ancestors, but we're not going to try to count back further than that. And then you have to have the current figure, and certainly since we've hit 7 billion years, there's good agreement there. So you've got a starting date and you've got an ending number. Now you've got to fill in the middle. Boy, that is hard to do because for 99% of that time, basically, there is no data. So you really have to look at what kind of assumptions are plausible and defensible and what conclusion do they lead to.
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Chapters
4 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–3:52
2
Are there really more people alive today than have ever lived?
3:52–4:25
3
What examples show this 'zombie statistic' keeps resurfacing in media?
4:25–6:51
4
How did Arthur C. Clarke's '30 ghosts per living person' claim originate and hold up?
6:51–9:22