The maths of infidelity (WS)

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More or Less 9 min 7 speakers 3 chapters transcribed 2 months ago
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BBC World Service promo 0:00
This is more or less a slice of statistical lemon in the pleasant but confusing gin and tonic of media reporting.
Tim Harford 0:20
This week we'll ask whether men really are more unfaithful than women. Hello and welcome to More or Less, the world in numbers on the BBC World Service. This week, is it more likely that I'm cheating on my wife or that my wife is cheating on me? Although presumably I should know something about at least one side of that equation. Infidelity. It happens, perhaps more often than many of us would like to imagine. The adulterer's journey is a predictable one, moving from defiance... I did not have sexual relations with that woman. ..to acceptance.
Unknown 1:06
Indeed, I did have a relationship with Miss Lewinsky that was not appropriate.
Tim Harford 1:10
But is it just as predictable that men are more inclined to commit adultery than women are? It is a very commonly held belief that men are less faithful than women, but it takes two to tango, so can this be mathematically possible? Fiona Woods has been... Well, actually, what have you been doing, Fiona? I've been looking at the numbers, Tim. So that's your excuse for all those late nights at the office?
Fiona Woods 1:32
It is. And be careful because everyone knows men have a bad track record in this area. There's good evidence that men cheat more than women. And this isn't just folk wisdom.

Are men really more unfaithful than women according to headline data?

Tim Harford 1:41
Indeed, there is actual data. And you've been looking at the American General Social Survey.
Fiona Woods 1:45
That's right. It's a 2006 study of 20,000 people and it found that nearly twice as many married men as women admit to having had sexual relations with someone other than their spouse.
Tim Harford 1:57
Men, eh?
Fiona Woods 1:58
Well, quite.
Tim Harford 1:59
But we already suspected that. Our loyal listeners need to know more. What kinds of men are most likely to cheat?
Fiona Woods 2:05
Well, that's exactly what I asked Tom Smith of the American General Social Survey and he warned me what to look out for.
Tom W. Smith 2:12
Men who are in unhappy marriages are more likely to be unfaithful. Separated men, in other words, someone who is still technically married but actually has a legal separation, much more likely to take and have other partners during that stage of marriage. Even if that separation, of course, reconciles and does not lead to a divorce, it still is a period in which infidelity tends to occur. People who travel a lot, people who are away from home a lot, people who are otherwise separated from their spouses for an extended period because of work or travel or other reasons. People who are less religious tend to be more unfaithful.
Fiona Woods 2:51
And the story is similar in other countries.
Tim Harford 2:54
Yes, the National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles in the United Kingdom, for example, also finds that men are more likely to be unfaithful than women. Although the researchers wouldn't put it exactly like that. I've been talking to the head of analysis for the National Survey, Dr Catherine Mercer, about exactly what such surveys are really measuring.
Dr Catherine Mercer 3:13
The bottom line is that women are less likely to report that they cheat on their partners than men. But as it's a socially sensitive behaviour, we can't directly observe unfaithfulness. So we have to rely on what people tell us. And we know that there are gender differences in how people report sexual behaviours. So the National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles is a large probability survey of people aged 16 to 74 living in Britain. And people are randomly selected to be invited to participate. People are asked less sensitive questions initially, for example, about how they learned about sex, their general health, contraception use. And then for the more sensitive questions, for example, about the numbers of partners they've had, the type of sexual practices they engage in, we use self-interview.
Dr Catherine Mercer 4:05
So the respondent reads the question from a laptop screen and answers their response directly into the computer.
Tim Harford 4:11
What are the actual questions that you're asking in order to deduce that people have been unfaithful? Or maybe you just ask them straight out.
Dr Catherine Mercer 4:18
Well, there have been two previous NatSAL studies, and we didn't actually ask people outright, have you been unfaithful?

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