The week that kills
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Thank you for downloading More or Less from the BBC. This is the version of the programme first broadcast on BBC Radio 4. Here's Tim Harford.
Hello and welcome to More or Less, the programme which takes a look at the numbers around us in the news and in life. This week, do you know how many people have been killed in the Iraq war? We'll be thinking through the numbers. And we'll be considering millionaire pensioners, the Glorys of Luxembourg, and most importantly, the nautical mile. But first, we start the programme with some good news. We at More or Less thought that next week was... The week of each year in which the largest number of British people tend to die. But it turns out that next week is not the week of death. Ben Carter is here to explain. Tim, I've looked at both the Office for National Statistics and the Scottish National Records Office weekly mortality figures.
the mortality figures do indeed tend to be highest for the second full week of the year, next week. So hang on, next week is the week of death. The weekly figures do say next week is the week of death. But no, it turns out that's just the week in which most deaths are recorded. OK, so it's a recording issue. It's an administrative catch-up from Christmas. So which week really does kill more people than any other then? The first week of January is... The week of death. So that's this week just finishing. Actually, Ben, are you sure the echo's in good taste? No, I'm sorry, Tim, but it is true. The first full week of January is typically the week when most deaths actually occur in Britain. But that's hardly a surprise, is it?
Well, that's true, but the reasons why might be... Firstly, we need to explain the phrase excess winter deaths. This is the difference between the number of deaths which occur in winter, December to March, and the average number of deaths during the preceding four months, August and November... and the subsequent four months, April to July. And we typically see about 25,000 to 30,000 of these excess winter deaths each year across the four winter months, and that's about 15% higher than the background rate at which we shuffle off the mortal coil. But the number fluctuates a lot. Last winter, 2012 to 2013, saw over 31,000 excess deaths, and that was 29% more than the year before. And that doesn't seem surprising, considering that the first few months of 2013 were bitterly cold.
Why does the first week of January see the highest number of recorded deaths in Britain?
In fact, we had the second coldest March on record. Well, here's Claudia Wells, the Head of Mortality Analysis at the Office for National Statistics.
Usually the temperature starts to rise in February and March. We didn't see that and we saw a corresponding increase in deaths. But what's unusual in England and Wales, if you compare that to perhaps other countries in Europe, you look at, say, Scandinavian countries, which generally have much, much colder winters than we do, the number of excess deaths they have in those countries are much lower. Whereas if you look at warmer countries, look at Portugal and Spain, their excess winter deaths are much higher.
So why is that?
That could be to say a preparedness for sort of the winter period, a difference in the types of housing that you have and people just being more aware of what to expect.
So let's run through this. Last year, Britain suffered a colder winter and an increase in the number of excess winter deaths. But looking at Europe, the Scandinavian countries, which are colder, have fewer excess winter deaths than countries in southern Europe, which are warmer. And just to add to the confusion... Claudia Wells also told us that the British winter of 2009 to 2010 was a cold one, and yet the number of excess winter deaths didn't go up. And last winter, the smallest proportion of excess winter deaths was recorded in London. Yet the year before that, the largest proportion of excess winter deaths was also recorded in London. There is one thing that's got to be true, though. You would think, given the number of headlines, surely it's the people in poverty, it's the people who don't have the cash to turn up the central heating.
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Chapters
4 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–2:32
2
Why does the first week of January see the highest number of recorded deaths in Britain?
2:32–8:27
3
How do 'excess winter deaths' get calculated and how large are they?
8:27–12:23
4
Why do colder countries sometimes have fewer winter deaths than warmer countries?
12:23–28:07