To ice or not to ice?
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Thanks for downloading More or Less from the BBC. This is the version first broadcast on Radio 4. If you're a regular listener to the shorter World Service podcast of More or Less, just want to let you know that the second item in this program is one you'll already have heard. Here's Tim Harford. Hello and welcome to More or Less, the programme that dumps a bucket of iced water over dodgy statistics in the news and in life. This week, does the evidence support claims of a rising tide of anti-Semitism across Europe? And we delve into the world of stylometrics to find out if data can prove conclusively that this… is better than this. To be or not to be, that is the question. But first, we'll be looking at the... No, hang on.
Oh, no.
A bucket of ice water? No, you can f*** right off. None of my friends have nominated me for the ice bucket challenge. That's because you don't have any friends, Tim. Yeah, very funny, Keith, very funny. Oh, come on, Tim. It's for a good cause. You agree to have a bucket of icy water thrown all over you. You donate money to the ALS Association in the US or the Motor Neurone Disease Association in the UK. A lot of people have also been given money to WaterAid or to the Macmillan Cancer Support too. You nominate three other people. The joy of giving spreads. And so does pneumonia. Oh, come on, Tim. Benedict Cumberbatch has done it. Bring on the bucket. Oprah Winfrey's done it. Even George W. Bush, the former US president, has done it.
The ALS Association raised $100 million this August, which is more than 30 times what it raised in the same period last year. ALS stands for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, which is also known as motor neurone disease in the UK. And the Motor Neurone Disease Association has also been benefiting. It's received the equivalent of six months' income in just a few days. Everyone's doing it. Well, that's all very well, but a true nerd doesn't run with the herd. I always look at the evidence first. So why don't we call up Douglas Graham of the Motor Neurone Disease Association. Motor neurone disease is a fatal and rapidly progressive disease which attacks the motor neurons, the neurons that allow you to move your muscles.
It leaves people trapped in a failing body, unable to walk, unable to talk, unable to feed themselves and eventually unable to breathe. Well, that's clearly a horrible illness. So what does the Motor Neurone Disease Association do with all these donations? We have three main aspects to our work. We fund world-class research into trying to find the causes of MND, because most of them are not yet known, and also ultimately to find an effective treatment and a cure. We also do a lot of work providing care and support to people living with the disease and their families. And then the third pillar of our work is we also raise awareness. I think there's no question that it's a worthy cause, but is it the most worthy cause?
When people take the Ice Bucket Challenge, I'm guessing they do it for a laugh because they've been prodded by a friend rather than because of a logical assessment of the merits of the donation. Here's Neil Bowerman, co-founder of the Centre for Effective Altruism.
What is the Ice Bucket Challenge and how much did it raise for ALS?
The viral nature of the Ice Bucket Challenge is genius. However, there are some risks and some worries with this. I don't think viral memes should be what determine our charitable spending. I think it should be which charities have the most impact. Neil thinks that there's a real problem with cannibalisation here, that people have a fixed budget in mind for charitable giving. If they give more to one charity because of a viral campaign, they give less to others. A couple of experts that he's spoken to agree with him, and it's certainly true that charities in the UK are spending more and more on fundraising without any obvious results in the total donations to charity. Now, this claim of cannibalisation is a bit speculative.
We spoke to Professor Stephen Lee of the Centre for Charity Effectiveness at Cass Business School. He says there's no evidence that charity cannibalisation exists except, and even then this is just anecdote, except after large events such as Comic Relief or Band-Aid.
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