Will the vaccine bring back normal life? GDP and Fishing
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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Hello and welcome to More or Less, the programme that never says next slide please until it's had a jolly good look at the numbers on the first slide. I'm Tim Harford. This week, the vaccine rollout continues. How long will it take before we see the benefits and what benefits will we see? The data suggest that the UK's economy performed worse than almost anywhere during the lockdowns. But are the numbers misleading us? And sugar and tea and rum. Also fish. But first, on last week's show, we painted a pretty grim picture of the situation the UK was facing. Now there may be signs that things are turning a corner. My producer Kate Lamble is with me. Hello, Kate.
Hi, Tim. Yeah, cases certainly seem to be falling. I like to look at seven-day averages because reported daily case numbers jump about a lot. And on the 1st of January, the seven-day average number of daily positive samples was just over 61,000. On the 11th of January, it was just under 45,000.
Well, that's good news, but we know there are some limitations on the number of cases we discover in the community. So are other numbers giving us a similar picture?
While the trend has always been cases fall first, then admissions, then deaths, hospital admissions may have peaked, but it's too early to be sure. And they really need to start falling because they're still at a level which is around two to three times as high as a month ago. It's not clear that deaths have peaked. The worst recent day was the 11th of January, when 1,064 people died within 28 days of a positive Covid test, That's getting closer to the first wave peak.
OK, good news on cases, grim news on deaths. But we would expect that if cases are falling, then eventually deaths will fall too. And there's another source of hope, the vaccine. Now, last week, we noted that the government was on course to vaccinate the top four priority groups, which include everyone aged 70 or over, only by July. So if they wanted to hit their target of doing so by mid-February, they were going to have to hurry up.
There is more good news here. They have hurried up. The UK had been averaging fewer than 500,000 first doses of a vaccine each week. But at the end of last week, we exceeded 300,000 doses a day for two days. Last week, I also said we needed to be averaging giving 2.5 million first doses a week to meet the government's target by the middle of February. This week, we managed around 1.8 million, which is not quite there, but not far off. If the pace keeps accelerating, we will hit that target. However, I should say we shouldn't just be paying attention to how many doses we've given out, but also who is being vaccinated and where. The rate does vary from place to place. The most recent data from NHS England that was broken down by age suggests that 46% of over-80s in the North East had had the first dose of a vaccine, while in the East of England that figure was only 29%.
Now, that data is nearly two weeks old now, but it does indicate that the rollout has been proceeding differently in different places. Scotland also appears to be vaccinating people more slowly. By the 11th of January, only around 7% of those over 80 in Scotland had been vaccinated. However, this seems to be part of a deliberate strategy, focusing on care homes first before the vaccine is rolled out into the community. Care home residents are the most at risk, but there also aren't. Thank you, Kate.
How quickly are COVID case numbers, hospital admissions and deaths changing in January 2021?
Last December, the government announced the priorities for vaccination. First, care home residents and staff. Second, people aged 80 or over and frontline health and social care workers. Third, people aged between 75 and 79. And fourth, the rest of the septuagenarians and people who are otherwise clinically extremely vulnerable. These four groups account for 88% of Covid deaths so far. So we know that the vaccination policy should bring down deaths rapidly. But deaths aren't the whole story. We asked our favourite actuary, Stuart McDonald, to run the numbers and try to calculate when the vaccination programme will relieve the extreme pressure on the NHS.
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Chapters
4 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–3:40
2
How quickly are COVID case numbers, hospital admissions and deaths changing in January 2021?
3:40–12:03
3
How fast is the UK vaccination rollout progressing and who is being reached?
12:03–25:50
4
When will vaccines significantly reduce hospital admissions and ICU pressure?
25:50–28:53