Decoding Trump's Win: 2024 Election Analysis | 12.15.24
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In his third bid for the presidency, Donald Trump was able to overcome past shortfalls to put together a decisive victory, winning the Electoral College, the popular vote, and GOP majorities in both houses of Congress.
In this episode, we speak to Signal Polling Group founder Brent Buchanan about what took place this year and if it signifies a truly seismic shift in the political landscape. I'm Daily Wire Editor-in-Chief John Bickley with Georgia Howe. It's December 15th, and this is a Sunday edition of Morning Wire. Joining us now to examine how the political landscape has shifted in the U.S. is Brent Buchanan, founder of Signal Polling Group. Brent, thanks for coming on. Good to talk to you again. It's great to be back. Look, we wanted to start by giving you some well-earned credit in the weeks leading up to the election. You said we would know the result Wednesday morning. That ended up being true. On election night, you were here at Daily Wire headquarters and ready to call the election for Trump at 10.02 p.m. No one's being that specific about it, but 10.02 p.m. What made you so sure Trump had won?
When you looked at some of the key counties within the swing states, you could see that he was doing so well within those counties that what made those counties good for him could be replicated across the other swing states, including places like Arizona and Nevada, which were still counting votes or just beginning to end the polls at 10.02 p.m.
What were some of the swings you saw early in the night? What kind of movement did you see in which counties that was so significant early on?
Miami-Dade has been really interesting because it has a highly Hispanic population, but it's more Cuban and Venezuelan, and that's not really replicatable across the rest of the country. What I was looking at was, if you remember from the New York City Madison Square Garden rally where you had that comedian that opened for Trump, you know, make a joke about Puerto Ricans living on an island of garbage. And maybe I'm getting that specific reference wrong, but the Puerto Ricans make up the majority of the Orlando area of Hispanics, which is a very different population of Hispanics than Cubans and Venezuelans in Miami-Dade County. So when I saw that he was doing well there, I knew that the mainstream media narrative that Trump was going to be hurt by Hispanics because of that comedian's comment was simply just chatter within the bubble in the elitist class and not actually something that was going to hurt him with voters. And then you could also go over to Maycomb County
Michigan, which is a very working class county, that continued to shift towards Republicans, and that's a highly unionized county. And so that also would tell you that, okay, if Trump is winning union voters who've been moving his direction And they're showing up in significant veracity that this is going to continue across the rest of the swing states and really the country as a whole. And I think what's most fascinating in all of this is there was really three elections occurring. There was elections in the swing states, which didn't have huge shifts from the prior election. I mean, you did see a big difference in like Arizona, for example, where Biden barely won it. Trump got over 5% of this time. I think that was more a normalization of the state than anything else.
But then you had elections in red and blue states and places like Florida and Texas got even redder and places like New Jersey. Trump got that to a single digit race. And so where money was spent, significant money was spent. The elections were closer, even though Republicans did well. And where money was not spent, Republicans just blew it out of the water. And that was a combination of two things. One, Republicans showing up strongly, but also Democrats staying home.
Now, pollsters like you often measure the most important issues to voters in the weeks and months leading up to the election. In this case, it was often inflation and immigration leading the pack. Did that end up lining up with exit polls?
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