AI’s Most Dangerous Moment

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Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing 39 min 6 speakers 8 chapters transcribed 5 months ago
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What are the earnings season expectations for Q1 2026?

Travis Hoium 0:05
Q1 has ended, so where does the market go from here? Motley Fool Money starts now.
Unknown 0:25
Everybody needs money. That's why they call it money.
Travis Hoium 0:36
From Fool Global Headquarters, this is Motley Fool Money. Welcome to Motley Fool Money. I'm Travis Hoyum, joined today by Lou Whiteman and John Quast. And guys, believe it or not, the first quarter is over, but the bad news is the Iran war is back on, oil is up, the market's been volatile. But now we're at least going into the phase where we get a little bit information about what's going on with companies. So what are you thinking going into earnings season starting next week, John? It's starting next week? I thought we just ended. It doesn't seem like it ever really ends. But especially with this, Q4 is a little bit delayed, because it's the end of the actual year. So, it is just like a four-month earnings season for us.
Jon Quast 1:18
Well, look, when it starts here, I'm definitely going to be looking at guidance. Guidance is always arguably better than the earnings results themselves. But here's the thing, what kind of a state are companies actually in to be issuing guidance Look, there's not a lot that the opponents and the supporters of the president agree on, but I think that they're going to agree with this statement. President Trump, there's chaos that always follows him. I think that it's particularly chaotic right now, even by the president's standards. And we do have this conflict going on in the Middle East. The vice president has called the current truce fragile. We could be a tweet away from oil spiking 20% or dropping 20%.
Jon Quast 2:01
So are you brave enough to predict which one it's going to be? No business is immune to dramatic swings in energy costs, and I think that's really going to weigh on guidance coming up.
Travis Hoium 2:11
Do you think there's a risk that some of these companies are going to pull guidance for the year because they do see so much uncertainty?
Jon Quast 2:17
Well, certainly the ones that are more exposed to energy swings, yes, I would think that that would be a very real possibility. How can you tell what your costs are going to be? Lou, what are you looking at?
Lou Whiteman 2:28
Yeah, it's amazing because with everything that's going on, S&P, guys, it's basically flat for the year. been pretty boring, I assume. Is that right? Look, obviously, individual stocks and sectors have been hit harder. It seems like there is maybe a rotation going on. But all things considered, everything John said is true, it's amazing how well things have done. I think John hit it on the head. Where are we right now? War, oil, tariffs, labor shortages. Are we still seeing resilience in the guidance?

What is AI's most dangerous moment according to the hosts?

Lou Whiteman 3:03
Are we still seeing any sign that we can start planning? What is the guidance going to say about we think the light is at the end of the tunnel? Will CEOs stick their necks out? For the last year or so, it has been outside of big tech and the hyperscalers, mostly just let's turtle and get through this and see what's going on. So I'm very interested in vibes. Specific to industry, I think the SaaS apocalypse is really what we need to look at. We've been talking about how SaaS is going to destroy all of these software businesses. Kind of snarkily, I've been saying, let's wait and see it in the results. So here it is. It's time for results. So let's see if we actually see signs of gloom and
Travis Hoium 3:45
What would you be looking for if there is a SaaSpocalypse? It's probably not likely that we're going to see companies go, oh, you know what? Revenue dropped 40%. But that doesn't necessarily mean that stocks aren't going to get hit hard if revenue growth decelerates, or we see something like margin compression. Are those the two things to look at? Lou, what is the trajectory of revenue growth? What do margins look like? And then what are the pricing of these companies? Because it does seem like some of these companies look like great values today, but how do you know if it's a value or a value trap?
Lou Whiteman 4:20
Only in hindsight, right? That's the issue. But yeah, no, I think you're right. It's kind of, what is the trend? And again, everything we just talked about could speak to the trend wouldn't be doing great even without AI, right?

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