90-day reprieve on debilitating US China tariffs
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What are the new US‑China tariff rates and why are they causing market rallies?
Ninety days for the US and China to sort out a deal. Meanwhile, tariffs have plummeted, just thirty percent now on goods coming into the United States from China down to ten percent going the other way, and markets are loving it. You see, you should have bought when Donald Trump said you should. And you'll recall uh on yesterday's podcast someone suggested this might be exactly what happens. Who was that? Oh yes, it was me. Uh it's nice to be right occasionally, isn't it? It's Tuesday the thirteenth. Good morning. So when President Trump said buy shares, were you listening? Because big rises in share prices today. The NASDAQ is up four point four percent, three point three percent for the SP and two point eight percent for the Dow.
Uh they're not quite as exciting in Europe, just naught point three percent added to the DAX, not point six percent for the FTSE one hundred, and one point six percent for the Eurostox fifty, but the Hang Seng was up three percent yesterday, more today possibly. And a big rise in the US dollar. It's at one point six percent today on the DXY, almost touching one hundred and two today, which I think is the highest since early April, not long after Liberation Day. The Aussie is down naught point six percent to sixty seven point four US cents, a one percent fall in the pound, the euro down one point six percent, one point nine percent lower for the Swiss franc. Uh moves up in bond yields as well, up seven basis points for ten year treasuries, up
Nine for German Bundes and eight for UK ten year guilt yields. And uh Aussie ten years, uh the yields there were up seven basis points yesterday to four point three six percent, and now they are up another six basis points overnight on futures. An oil higher as well, one point four percent up for WTI, one and a half percent for Brent, a three and a half percent fall in Comics Gold this session, uh and Bitcoin down almost three percent as well. It's uh sort of acting a bit like a gold substitute, isn't it? Now I don't want to say I told you so, but I told you so. Donald Trump did come out with big cuts on tariffs with China. We talked about it yesterday.
How did the 90‑day goodwill pause between the US and China affect equity, currency and bond markets?
Uh he told us shares were gonna go up and they have. Uh I'm not sure what they're achieving through all of this, but here's Nab's Gavin friend. He joins me today from London. So look shares, commodities, all asset class classes have been hit by this News. Uh and uh yeah, though the markets like it, clearly. Hmm.
Phil, um some big moves in markets, you know. I think um, you know, it the combination of the sort of upbeat commentary we got from the press conference from Geneva after the two day weekend, you know, um loving between uh the US uh and China trade contingents. Um, you know, the remember we went into this at 145% for the US tariffs on China. um Donald Trump's eighty percent tariff suggestion on Friday and we end up with what thirty percent now? Uh and the carrot of a further slice off that, because that thirty percent is a ten percent baseline and twenty percent for fentanyl uh wrongdoings. Um the carrot of a you know that that could be cut further if uh China does well on the fentanyl discussions.
Um I think, you know, markets were You know, you looked at the headlines of a ninety day pause in the t in the trade impasse, the US, as I say, dropping their tariffs from one forty five percent to thirty percent, China from one hundred and twenty five percent to ten percent. So both dropped a hundred and fifteen points. Um and, you know, very complimentary comments from the US side. Scott Bessant, the Treasury Secretary, and uh uh Jameson Greer, the trade uh US trade representatives on you know the the the the quality of the Chinese um uh trade t team and in particular the fact that China also sent a vice minister for state security who was able to provide the US with some uh the US national security team with some very well received intel on fentanyl or indeed the ingredients, the sources of fentanyl, you know, which, as I say, uh Bessant was suggesting that if you if they continue to make progress on that and can can can stop that pathway.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What are the new US‑China tariff rates and why are they causing market rallies?
0:01–1:59
2
How did the 90‑day goodwill pause between the US and China affect equity, currency and bond markets?
1:59–4:30
3
What role does the fentanyl‑related security cooperation play in further tariff reductions?
4:30–6:43
4
Why are investors questioning whether the tariff cuts will be sustained beyond the 90‑day window?
6:43–8:31
5
How might the US inflation print later today influence the political narrative around the tariff deal?
8:31–10:43
6
What are the potential spill‑over effects of the tariff cuts on other sectors such as pharmaceuticals, steel and semiconductors?
10:43–12:55
7
How could upcoming US tax‑cut legislation and UK immigration policy interact with the trade‑deal momentum?
12:55–15:02
8
What key economic indicators (CPI, consumer confidence, earnings) should listeners watch after the tariff announcement?
15:02–17:03