99 days of confusion
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Why are markets staying positive despite uncertainty over trade deals?
Market stayed positive through most of the week last week on the hope that trade deals will be done and the tariffs are being used as leverage rather than being a permanent fixture, at least uh not at the extreme levels that were laid out earlier in the month. But what if the deals aren't done? And what could the US President say to upset the Apple cart when he gives his 100-day rally on Tuesday? And aside from all that, what data should we be looking at for this week? It's Monday. It's the twenty-eighth of April twenty twenty five. It's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well, we went around on Friday, of course, and shares continued to rise in the last two days of the week in the United States.
Actually, four days of consecutive gain. So for the week the Nasdaq gained six point seven percent, four point nine percent for the DAX, and four point six percent for the S P, compared that to just one point nine percent for the ASX two hundred last week, one point seven percent for the FTSE one hundred. So American exceptionalism has made a brief comeback, although of course it did go down quite a bit beforehand, and bond yields fell. L two last week, down almost nine basis points for ten year treasuries, the same for ten year Gilts. Aussie ten years uh falling by a similar amount, but German ten year bond yields last week uh pretty much held steady. Uh ten year treasuries now four point two five percent, uh ten year Aussie bonds at four point two three percent.
And the US dollar climbed a quarter percent on the DXY last week, still sticking below a hundred though. The Aussie also climbed, it was up almost naught point three percent. two percent last week, uh after um compared to a naught point one percent rise in the pound and a quarter percent fall in the euro and the Swiss franc down one point four percent last week, but the Aussie did also fall, not point two percent on Friday. It's just below sixty four US cents right now. And oil well that was down last week two two point six percent off WTI, one point six percent off Brent, despite a bit of a climb back on Thursday and Friday. Brent finishing the week just below sixty six point nine US dollars a barrel.
So on our weekend podcast, Ray Attra was talking about the US dollar getting much weaker, the Aussie gaining a bit of strength, but hey, last week that is the opposite of what actually happened. So here he is to tell us why. I mean it's uh this is I mean obviously the the longer term story I'm sure you're right.
What could happen if the upcoming trade deals fail to materialise?
But we're seeing hope at the moment, aren't we? Hope that deals are going to be reached, that the tariff shock is Just temporary and you know, we might not get back to the old world, but we're gonna get closer to it than perhaps we were a few weeks ago.
Yeah, good morning, Phil. I think that's a a pretty good summation. Um, you know, I'm certainly not reading too much into any of the moves that we've seen, not least in the um in in the currency markets. And and one thing probably worth noting, I was looking at the um IMM futures positioning data that came out on Friday, which is actually for the week ending Tuesday, and it actually shows that sort of speculative traders have built up some pretty substantial net short US dollar positions in the last three or four weeks. So I think from a news flow point of view, obviously that um big backflip in terms of the attacks on Fed Chair Powell saying that uh w President Trump saying he had no intention of firing him.
And then just sort of glimmers of hope, I think, that you know, some of these um tariffs will get negotiated away before the sort of ninety day deadline, um which I think Thank you. I thought it was July the fourth, but um I'm hearing July the ninth and and some signs maybe that China is also uh rescinding some of the sort of draconian tariffs on some um US exports into China. So I think um you know hope's a good summation there that the market continues to travel with a view that you know, maybe the world's not gonna look quite as grim in you know, on that ninety day deadline as as was threatened on on April the first.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why are markets staying positive despite uncertainty over trade deals?
0:02–2:08
2
What could happen if the upcoming trade deals fail to materialise?
2:08–4:40
3
Which economic data this week will drive the RBA’s policy decision?
4:40–6:39
4
How are US‑China tariff negotiations affecting global bond yields?
6:39–9:08
5
What are the key points of the Wall Street Journal’s trade‑deal agenda?
9:08–11:08
6
Will the US President’s 100‑day rally shift market expectations?
11:08–12:53
7
How are Canada’s political shifts and Mark Carney’s role influencing markets?
12:53–14:45
8
What impact will upcoming CPI releases have on the BOJ and global rates?
14:45–15:55