A better week to come?
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Why did US equities and the Australian dollar fall last week?
Well, last week treasury yields were lower, equities were down. Then when it seemed that a cut from the Fed was more likely before the year was out, equities bounced back. That and maybe Nvidia's best chips can be sold to China. That helped too. But it wasn't just equities. Bitcoin had a disaster of a week but came bouncing back over the weekend. So do we go into this week with a bit more positivity? Perhaps it's Monday. It's the 24th of November 2025. It's the morning. call from NAP. Good morning. Well, last week the US dollar gained naught point nine percent over the week on the DXY. The Aussie dollar though down one point three percent, even with a quarter percent rise on Friday finishing up below sixty four point six US cents.
Equities over the week were down just about everywhere, more than five percent off the Hang Seng, two and a half percent off the ASX two hundred and two point seven percent off the Nasdaq. But those numbers include a bit of a rebound on Friday when the Nasdaq was up naught point nine percent. The Russell two thousand climbed two point eight percent in one day on Friday, and ten year treasure yields were down over eight basis points across the week, yields down in most places. Aussie futures though, bucking that trend rising one point five basis points last week. And big falls in oil with that oversupply story. So three point four percent off WTI, two point eight percent off Brent. Brent finishing uh just above sixty two fifty a barrel.
And Bitcoin Bitcoin on Friday fell seven point six percent. They are off twenty five percent so far this month. Wow, here's Nab Sky Masters, uh, who's been on holiday. Uh so day one, we get out a bit early on to the podcast. That hardly seems fair, does it? Uh and then ask her about Bitcoin. Well so wh what what is your take? 'Cause that is a momentous fall last week.
How did Bitcoin’s weekend bounce affect market sentiment?
Yeah, thanks thanks Phil. Um great great to be to be back and uh the rude awakening after a week off. Um but yeah, looking at looking at Bitcoin, you know, massive, massive moves last week. Um but I would say that over the weekend it does seem to have settled a little bit. Um and you know, w as as we all know, Bitcoin does it is does trade over over the weekend and um So sort of a bit of a bellwether in terms of or guide in terms of what might happen this week. Um and you have seen some stabilization in Bitcoin and actually some buying coming back. So it it it is it is up over over the weekend. So, you know, m maybe that's sort of suggestive that um the week can start on a positive note for equities.
Um it certainly did, at least with the US equity market. market as you said, you know, i i the week did end end on a positive note with US stocks.
Yeah.
Stocks closing closing higher. And Bloomberg did note on Friday that um four hundred and fifty shares in the S P five hundred rose rose on on Friday. So it's a good end to the week.
So how much has uh John Williams, New York Feds John Williams, got to do with that? Because he he was talking on Friday and talked up that a rate cut uh might uh might be on the cards by the end of the by the end of the year.
Yeah, I think in in in a um In a session where like we did have quite a bit of data coming out and we we can talk about it, but I don't really think the data had much of an impact um on broader markets. Maybe it did a little bit on the UK guilt market. Um but you know, it was um his comments uh really did seem to drive market sentiment to to end the week. I think, you know, Williams is probably seen as um one of the more important um voters to listen to because he is seen to be a little bit more more balanced. So so a better a better guide to what the broader um FMC m members are thinking and and he yeah, he did say that he he saw the potential for a a near term rate cut. Um and then, you know, that that did provide some underlying support to the stock market and to bonds and um you know and and to expectations for what the Fed will do at the December meeting.
So you do have the US OIS market now prices around a seventy five percent chance of a cut at the December meeting and and that's up from pricing around only a forty five percent chance at the start of the week.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
Why did US equities and the Australian dollar fall last week?
0:01–1:42
2
How did Bitcoin’s weekend bounce affect market sentiment?
1:42–5:09
3
What impact did John Williams’ Fed comments have on equity expectations?
5:09–8:40
4
How are mixed global PMI data influencing investor outlook?
8:40–12:10
5
What does the Japanese yen intervention risk mean for currency markets?
12:10–15:07
6
How will the UK budget shape bond yields and fiscal expectations?
15:07–15:25