A brighter future for optimists
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What are the latest US market moves and currency trends this morning?
Well, no surprise, perhaps. It seems the Trump victory has emboldened investors with a more optimistic outlook for the US economy. And we've seen more optimism in Australia as well in the latest consumer and business surveys. But in the UK, well, unemployment is rising. Germany's zoo survey looking worse. And today, US CPI is that rising as well, even before Trump is in the White House lifting those tariffs. It is Wednesday, it's the 13th of November 2024. It's the morning. Call from Nab. So the US dollar higher again today, up another 0.4% on the DXY, up to 105.9%. It was over 106.1 earlier on, not far off the high for the year. Well, actually not far off the high for the last couple of years. Not good news for the Aussie, which is down 0.6% to below 65.4 US cents.
The pound is down 1%, 0.3% lower for the euro. The yen is down 0.6%. And stocks have peaked after uh reaching new highs. They're down today. The Dow at closed down 0.9%. The SP has lost 0.3% in this session. The NASDAQ down 0.1%. 1.8% live with Russell 2000, curiously. Bitcoin, incidentally, up another two point six percent, a little over eighty-nine thousand two hundred. It did very nearly touch ninety thousand today. It is reaching new highs anyway. And shares down in Europe, 2.4% off the Eurostocks 50 at close, 2.7% lower for the CAC current, and 1.2% off the FTSE one hundred. Bond markets are back open in the US and yields markedly higher. So ten year treasuries up thirteen basis points to four point four four percent, up ten basis points in Canada, seven in the UK, three in Germany.
Aussie ten years were down two basis points yesterday. To four point five six percent now on futures up, nine basis points on that. And oil, well, it was higher, but it's pulled back in the last hour or so, so it's actually flat for the day for WTI and Brent.
How does the Bank of America Global Fund Managers Survey show record equity exposure?
Brent is stuck at seventy one eighty a barrel, naught point seven percent off spot gold this morning. So there we are. What's going on? Here's Nab's Gavin friend in London. So shares back down a bit from their peak. Gavin, but they did you know, they have been hitting highs. There's a Bank of America Global Fund Managers Survey which is out that shows investor exposure to equities has hit the highest level since twenty thirteen. And the turnaround in optimism in that uh survey is intriguing as well. The biggest jump in growth expectations since May twenty twenty. There has certainly been a response, hasn't there, to the Donald Trump uh win last week.
Good morning, Phil. You there has indeed. I mean, we knew, didn't we, that this period of US policy vacuum through, you know, after the uh election through to the twentieth of January inauguration. I mean we'll see all sorts of you know policy prescriptions, cut policy kite flying, appointment speculation and uh and uh realised. Um and it's the latter I think that is the focus earlier this week. Um early this week we've we've had some press speculation on various key appointments like Marco Rubio for Secretary of state. I mean he's a known China hawk media um speculation that Mike Waltz, uh a veteran, um, w is will is a is a plum pick for national security advisor. I mean we shouldn't be surprised. that these kinds of candidates are are in line with the sort of rhetoric and the view that this this time around, you know, unlike in twenty sixteen, tw the start of twenty seventeen where Trump
really didn't know Washington and and picked lots of sort of grandees. Now it's pigging Team Trump. He wants to hit the ground running with all sorts of legislation and uh reforms and things to push back on the on the Biden agenda and he wants a team with him that uh, you know, is uh is full square behind him. And so as we go through markets are in that phase now, thinking about all the policies, tariffs. tariffs, uh immigration pushback and um, you know, tax cuts, even if they're for twenty sixteen. And all these policy announcements are just adding to it's just pulling investors into that but you know various Trump trades that are out there, you know, high yields, the dollar, Bitcoin as you say, stocks.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
What are the latest US market moves and currency trends this morning?
0:01–1:58
2
How does the Bank of America Global Fund Managers Survey show record equity exposure?
1:58–5:13
3
Which Trump‑era policy appointments could reshape tariffs and immigration?
5:13–9:21
4
What did the NAB Business and Westpac Consumer Confidence surveys reveal about Australian optimism?
9:21–12:25
5
How will today’s US CPI numbers influence expectations for inflation and rate cuts?
12:25–15:18
6
Why is the UK unemployment rate rising and what does the data reliability issue mean?
15:18–16:31