A deal, a cut and another Trump trade tip
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What does the new US‑UK trade deal mean for tariffs and market sentiment?
A tariff deal with the UK signed and sealed today. It seems to have helped jolly markets along. Uh this might not be a big deal for anybody else, but it certainly gives the hope that a China deal won't be far behind it. Certainly the US President has been giving tips to buy stock again today, so investors have been. Meanwhile, uh including the Fed, five central banks in the last day or so, with a mix of approaches to the global uncertainty, but the Bank of England cut rates. But there was a Wide range of votes there as well. And today, China's trade data for April. Just how big a hit did they take? It's Friday, it's the 9th of May 2025. It's the morning call from NAB. Good morning. So US equities had a good session, although they lost some of the gains towards the close, with the Dow finishing up 0.7%, 0.6% for the SP, and 1.1% for the Nasdaq.
Consumer discretionary and industrials doing the best. Both at 1.4% according to Bloomberg, but actually consumer discussion we were up over two percent an hour out from the close. Stocks are more or less now back where they were just before Liberation Day, although they're struggling to get any higher than that. That is not the case for Bitcoin, though. It's up four point six percent today, more than twenty percent higher than it was just before Liberation Day. In Europe, a one point one percent rise in the Euro stocks fifty, a one percent rise in the DAX, but a nort three percent fall in the FTSE one hundred despite the trade deal uh with the United States. Quite a rise in the US dollar, it's up one percent on the DXY, up to a hundred point six, the Aussie lost 0.4% to sixty four US cents.
The Euro is down almost naught point seven percent, not point three percent off the pound, even with the trade deal, and big rises in Ten year treasury yields up ten basis points today to four point three seven percent, up nine for ten year yields in the UK, uh, but much more than that for two years. We'll come to that in a second. Up six in Germany, eleven in Canada, and Aussie ten years yesterday were down four basis points to four point two three percent, but that was yesterday.
How are US equities performing after the President’s latest stock‑buying tip?
This morning, back up, six basis points to a little over four point two nine percent. An oil higher again as well today, three point two percent up for W T Almost 60 a barrel, 2.9% for Brent, edging towards 63, and a 2.4% drop in Comics Gold. The VIX index has fallen 5.6% today as well, down below 22.4, which I think might be the lowest it's been since Trump's liberation day. So let's get across all of that with NABS Ken Crompton in Sydney. So look, Ken, a lot of Positive sentiment today for the US anyway, not a particularly positive reaction in the UK to their trade deal, almost as though it's not so great for them. But I guess the hope is the sentiment is not just that. It's also what comes next, isn't it?
Is the is this the first of many trade deals? And the uh markets seem to be clinging on to that hope again.
Yeah, good morning, Phil. I think even just the use of the word deal to describe this is probably even um maybe a l a little bit overdone. Um I I see um Bloomberg and a few other sources sort of scaling that back to framework and I did think it was kind of telling that the press conference to announce this, you know, uh uh announced by Trump for ten A. M., you know, Washington time yesterday eventually sort of slipped to closer to eleven, with the reports being they were still um discussing details. Then the final form wouldn't um actually take effect until uh some until President Trump actually spoke about it. Um and yeah, I think probably it's probably somewhat telling for the future state of play on these things that uh on a f sort of a fairly significant strategic partner that has a actually has a trade uh actually has a trade deficit with you, that you've uh still set that baseline tariff at ten percent.
Sure there's a couple of strategic exemptions there. You know, steel and aluminium, obviously good news for the newly nationalised British steel industry.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What does the new US‑UK trade deal mean for tariffs and market sentiment?
0:01–1:58
2
How are US equities performing after the President’s latest stock‑buying tip?
1:58–4:04
3
Why are Bitcoin and European markets moving differently from US stocks today?
4:04–6:06
4
What are the key details of the UK tariff carve‑outs for steel, aluminium and cars?
6:06–7:49
5
How is the Bank of England’s split vote influencing interest‑rate expectations?
7:49–9:59
6
What does the latest Chinese April trade data indicate for global growth?
9:59–11:56
7
Why are German industrial production numbers spiking and what does it mean for tariffs?
11:56–13:51
8
What upcoming data releases (US labor market, Japan wages, US‑Canada unemployment) should investors watch?
13:51–15:34