A tiny bit more risk
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Why are markets showing a slightly higher risk appetite today?
Well, markets are in the mood for a bit more risk today, just an insty wincy bit more, but it's pushed equities back up in the United States and Bitcoin also on the rise. But no big moves anywhere, really, perhaps because there's not been much data. But we'll look at what there was, including what's out that will influence Australian GDP numbers today, plus the latest OECD growth forecasts and inflation forecasts, and central bankers on both sides of the Tasman. Hauled up by government panels. It's Wednesday, it's the third of December twenty twenty five. It's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well, US equities have bounced back in this session with the Nasdaq up naught point six percent, just naught point two percent for the S P.
Uh we also saw a half percent rise in the DAX, which really was the the best that uh Europe did. A small rise in the US dollar, a naught point two percent rise in the Aussie, sixty five and a half US cents now. The yen is down by naught point four percent, so wiping out a lot of yesterday's gains. No movement on uh Japanese bonds after the big move up yesterday, though. We did see the Aussie and Kiwi bonds rising quite a bit yesterday. Aussie ten years finished at four point six one percent, up a another few basis points from that overnight. And oil lower, 0.7% off Brent and WTI, and one and a quarter percent off silver this morning and one percent off spot gold. Bitcoin is back on the rise, though up eight percent in the last twenty-four hours.
Most of that actually in the last four hours or so. So Taylor Nugent is here from uh
What is driving Bitcoin’s 8% surge in the last 24 hours?
Nab in Sydney. Uh yeah, it's a bit bitty today, isn't it? So let's get into the bitty bits uh from yesterday. Uh building approvals for Australia fell in October, fell more than expected. Uh the current account deficit was bigger than expected with a fall in net exports. So how much of that is is going to influence uh GDP numbers today and how much of it is i is down to uh commodity prices?
Yeah, so um a fair bit of data out yesterday, as you mentioned, to feed into to those fin finalised expectations for GDP today. Um, rounding out those implications for for GDP first before we kind of, you know, touch on some of the the other information in that data. So um the trade components of of the balance of payments obviously feed through and there we got confirmation that there's gonna be a a negative point one percentage point subtraction from from trade. Um so, you know, not a not a not a huge contribution um and and near expectations really. Um we also got some detail on on public uh final demand in the partials yesterday as well and that showed an increase in both public consumption and and public investment.
Um and so public final demand's likely to contribute four tenths of a percentage point uh to uh to growth in um in the third quarter. And really just filling out the kind of all of those final demand components are expected to be reasonably robust in the third quarter when the when the data comes in today. Um we do have some offset though in terms of the the final GDP number from a a pretty big drag from inventories. So we knew about that from the private sector on Monday and we got confirmation that public sector inventories will be a bit of a drag uh as well. Net net looking through all of that, our expectation is is where it was. Was uh last week after this um strength in in some of those private investment partials.
How will the recent drop in Australian building approvals affect GDP forecasts?
So we're still looking for a point seven percent quarter on quarter for GDP, which would be two point two percent year on year. That is in line with consensus, but it's a little stronger than than what the RBA had penciled in uh back in November, which was two percent year on year.
Yeah, and it's quite a bit more than what the O C D's just released in their latest quarterly economic outlook. So their projection projections for growth this year for Australia is one point eight percent this year, two point three percent next year, two point three percent the year after.
Uh yes. Um there's a a year average versus versus year ended uh distinction there I think in in the background.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why are markets showing a slightly higher risk appetite today?
0:01–1:26
2
What is driving Bitcoin’s 8% surge in the last 24 hours?
1:26–3:09
3
How will the recent drop in Australian building approvals affect GDP forecasts?
3:09–4:56
4
What are the OECD’s growth forecasts for Australia and how do they compare to the RBA’s outlook?
4:56–6:45
5
Why does the FX team expect the Australian dollar to rise despite a strong US dollar?
6:45–8:12
6
What’s the likelihood of a Bank of Japan rate hike this month and how are bond yields reacting?
8:12–10:05
7
How might Jerome Powell’s upcoming comments influence expectations for a Fed rate cut?
10:05–11:39
8
What are the key themes from recent central bankers’ testimonies in New Zealand, Australia and Europe?
11:39–12:19