A week of politics, US jobs data and Aussie GDP.
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How are politics influencing markets this week?
So our market's moving more on politics than data right now. The US yield curve continues to steepen, and the politics isn't just the question over central bank independence, although that is still a thing. It's also the question of whether President Trump's tariffs are actually legal and what happens if they're not. Meanwhile, the next batch of US jobs data is out this week as well. After that big fall last time and the subsequent firing of the statistical agency. The new head presumably, hoping for some good numbers this time. And Aussie GDP this week as well. It is Monday, it's the first of September twenty twenty five. It's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well, whilst all eyes have been on US equities lately, it's actually Chinese shares that have been doing particularly well, the C S I three hundred up three quarters of percent on Friday and up two point seven percent over the week last week, uh in a week where most indices around the world were actually in the red.
The DAX, for example, down one point nine percent last week. The WAN uh also one of the strongest currencies. The C NY is up half a percent over the week, but better than that, the Aussie dollar Up almost nort. Actually the best of the majors, up to sixty five point four U.S. cents at the end of the week. And bond yields, uh well, most movement was uh actually Italian yields uh up four point five basis points on Friday, uh up six for the week. US ten year treasuries were down two and a half percent last week, but thirty year yields were up over five basis points, and a lot of that was happening on Friday. It was also a big week for gold up half a percent. on Friday and up three point three percent over the week.
Iron ore also climbing two point nine percent last week, which obviously helped the Aussie dollar a fair bit. And oil fell on Friday, but Brent and WTI climbed about naught point six percent last week if we look across the week. And it's Labor Day today in the United States, which gives us a chance, I guess, to catch up a little bit and take stock of where we are.
Why is Labor Day causing a quiet start for US markets?
And let's do that with Nabs Taylor Nugent in Melbourne. So yeah, those that That movement at the long end of the curve, it just uh it's staying high, isn't it? It keeps on happening. So is that I mean we've got all of this uncertainty obviously about what's happening with the Fed and on top of that then we had uh the the appeals court ruling saying most of uh Donald Trump's tariffs are illegal. So is that uncertainty around all of this what is pushing these yields higher? What's going on?
Yeah, good good morning, Phil. I think, you know, a bit of a bit of all of the above in terms of what's um leaking into some of that steepening in in US curves that we've seen, as you say, kind of over the week, you've got US two year yields down around up eight basis points at the same time as you've got thirty year yields up around five basis points. So we are seeing that kind of you know, continued kind of grind uh higher in um in in the long end relative to the short end of the yield curve. And this is something that it's not necessarily a surprise, just kind of the continued weight of policy uncertainty, some uncertainty around whether it's the fiscal trajectory, not just in in the US, but kind of globally as well.
And add into that question marks over Fed independence and what that means for the inflation target. Inflation. and all of those sorts of things. So all of those things are kind of arguing in the same direction, I guess, if you like, on um on yields. And, you know, really, you know, there's nothing kind of emphatic here. There's not it's not sort of you know screaming higher despite some of these question marks. But, you know, this is something that has continued in the background um and, you know, it's not something that This uncertainty's not going to be resolved soon. You mentioned there the the appeals court decision on on Tariff. Well that's got
to be resolved by October the fourteenth, supposedly. That's I mean they basically said yes, we the these the tariffs can stay in place till then to allow an appeal, but obviously they are intent.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
How are politics influencing markets this week?
0:01–1:49
2
Why is Labor Day causing a quiet start for US markets?
1:49–3:54
3
What are the implications of the appeals‑court ruling on Trump's tariffs?
3:54–5:38
4
What did the University of Michigan inflation expectations reveal?
5:38–7:48
5
What did Fed Governor Christopher Waller say about a September rate cut?
7:48–9:58
6
How are China's PMI readings affecting its stock‑market performance?
9:58–12:29
7
What caused Tokyo's CPI to drop to 2.6% in August?
12:29–14:34
8
Why is Finnish central‑bank chief Olli Rehn warning about low‑inflation risks?
14:34–16:14