All Change
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How will President Trump's inaugural executive orders affect global markets this week?
So it's all changed today. We've got the inauguration of President Trump and whatever executive orders that he signs this week. Fortunately, there's not a whole load of data this week to compete against the Trump machine. But speaking of data or data, we had more of it on Friday suggesting the US economy is doing pretty well, while many other parts of the world are floundering. And that's before extra tariffs are imposed. It's Monday, it's the 20th of January 2025. Morning Cole from Nab. Good morning. Well, the US dollar rose a little at the end of last week, so up to one hundred nine point three on the DXY, but it was not far off uh a hundred and ten in the middle of the week. The euro up naught point three percent over the week.
Last week, the pound down 0.3%, the yen up 0.9%, and the Aussie, after losing a bit of ground later in the week, uh still finished up 0.7% over the week. And Friday was a good day for shares. The last gasp before the Trump president's See the Nasdaq up on the day by 1.5%, 1% for the S P and 0.7% for the Dow. European stocks also doing well, 1.2% up for the DAX, for example, on Friday, and almost 1.4% for the FTSE 100. And big moves in bonds over the week. Ten year treasuries finished the week up at 4.63%. That is about 13 basis points lower than the same period a week before. Aussie 10 years finished at 4.5%. Uh, which is about 3.5% lower than a week earlier. But UK tenure guilts lost about eighteen basis points last week.
And oil on the eve of drill baby drill. WTI lost one percent on Friday.
What does the recent US dollar movement tell us about market sentiment ahead of the inauguration?
Brent was down naught point six percent over the week. They're both up about one point two percent, though. So Martin Luther King Day in America today, he had a dream, and Donald Trump does. He is inaugurated in the United States later on today or early tomorrow morning our time. Also the World Economic Forum kicks off in Davos, although I can't see that getting too much attention today. We've also had the US TikTok ban over the weekend, although that's sort of been lifted. We'll talk about that in a moment. And the ceasefire handing over the hostages and prisoners in the Israel-Palestine conflict. So no shortage of news. But what will Will be reflected in market sentiment today. Well here's Nabs Ray actual.
Actually it's gonna be a quiet start, isn't it? Because the US is on holiday, the New York Stock Exchange is closed, so is the bond market. So I assume a lot of people are gonna be in wait and see moo mood to uh try and see what it is that the President does.
Yeah, good morning, Phil. That uh now it's certainly uh this is uh I guess a week we've all been waiting for since since November the sixth, really, when we discovered who was going to be the uh the next president of the USA. And obviously, you know, I think from a markets point of view, um yes, a little bit of volatility, but I think really they're braced for, you know, what is coming down the pipe by way of executive orders, uh potentially within hours of um President Trump's inauguration. Which I think takes place at four AM um Australian Eastern Time Tuesday morning. And then there is um uh there is a speech, and I think there's a party sponsored by none other than TikTok. And um, you know, the question for markets is you know, as soon as he gets his his feet under the Oval Office desk, are we going to see a slew of executive orders?
The um one report that we had on um Friday gonna round up and uh potentially start The deportation process in Chicago.
How did the Trump‑Xi phone call influence US‑China trade expectations and tariffs?
So, you know, whether or not that's confirmed will be of interest. But obviously, I think the market's first order of priority is to see whether is any executive order relating to tariffs. And you know, that most of the market volatility that we've seen, particularly in currencies, I would say, in the last couple of weeks, has been every time we've had a source story suggesting that the tariff process could. Mm.
could be gradual or very uh limited in its scope. Um, you know, we've seen the US dollar sell off and every time it gets denied, uh, we see the dollar strengthening again.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
How will President Trump's inaugural executive orders affect global markets this week?
0:01–1:34
2
What does the recent US dollar movement tell us about market sentiment ahead of the inauguration?
1:34–3:21
3
How did the Trump‑Xi phone call influence US‑China trade expectations and tariffs?
3:21–5:03
4
What are the surprising US economic data points (industrial production, housing starts) and why do they matter?
5:03–6:50
5
How is China's 2024 GDP performance reshaping expectations for Chinese currency policy?
6:50–8:42
6
What could a Chinese yuan weakening or strengthening mean for the Aussie dollar and NZD?
8:42–10:52
7
How are UK retail sales, pound movements and upcoming BoE decisions likely to impact the market?
10:52–12:43
8
What are the key macro events (Davos, BOJ rate hike, global PMIs) to watch before the week ends?
12:43–13:43