An open and shut case
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Why did the Hormuz Strait open, close, and reopen again?
So the straits were open, then they were closed, talks were on, then they weren't, now they're back on again. Iran is close to a deal apparently, unless you ask them. Where are they right now? And if they don't budge, America is gonna take out their power plants and their bridges. So how does it end? When does it end? And how can anyone really have a clue right now? Uh but hey, equity markets are still pushing higher as though nothing is going on. It's Mondays the 20th of April 2025. It's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well, everything has been up and down since Friday when we saw the US dollar fall to seventy point six on the DXY before climbing back up to ninety eight point one, which is pretty close to where it was on Thursday.
Uh the Aussie got up to seventy two point two US cents before falling back down to seventy one point seven. The price of Brent Crude fell nine percent to ninety point four a barrel. WCI fell almost eleven and a half percent to be low. eighty four a barrel, but that will probably all change today. And US equities pushed higher on Friday. Well the Nasdaq up one and a half percent. The Eurostocks 50 up 2.1%, 2.3% up for the DAX, and bond yields fell markedly down six basis points for 10-year treasuries, down seven in Germany, 10 in France, 9 in the UK, Aussie 10 years, finished the week at 4.94%. And And here is Sally Ald with me today from Nab in Sydney. So we know the story, Sally.
How did the recent US‑Dollar, Aussie‑Dollar and Brent moves affect global markets?
The Straits of Hormuz were reopened. Some ships got through. Then Iran closed it because the US wouldn't uh lift their blockade on Iranian ports. Some ships were fired on passing through the strait. I think they were Indian vessels. And uh now we hope that there's gonna be peace talks. There was hope that there would be Some over the weekend. That didn't materialise, but we're told now the early part of this week, uh, with the usual proviso that if Iran doesn't accept, then every power plant and bridge will be knocked out. So no more Mr. Nice Guy, the US President, posted overnight in Block Capitals. Uh so we are back, I think, Sally, to assuming it's gonna be a while before we see the Straits open again, and I can imagine we're gonna see quite a bit of
Price action today. Yeah,
good morning Phil. So it it does feel like we've done we've come sort of full circle over the course of a weekend. So as you said, uh, you know, straight open, straight closed. Uh and then uh just late last night, at least uh Sydney time, there were reports that you know the US was sending its negotiation team back to Pakistan, although it doesn't feel like from you know what we can sort of observe from the Iranian side that they're uh uh committed to to turning up uh while the US naval blockade is in place. So uh I guess we're we're going to have to wait and see, but I guess you know markets certainly on Friday night, um, you know, as you said, uh very very supportive tone to risk assets, uh particularly in Europe, uh, you know, where there were gains of two percent or more on some of the European bosses.
So in uh in somewhat of a change actually output Performing uh you know the price action on US equity markets, which was interesting, big moves in oil, uh and like you said, Aussie dollar poking its head above seventy two cents, uh, but only for a moment uh wasn't able to sustain that. So we will wait uh wait and see.
What is the outlook for oil prices after the failed peace talks?
Um but yes, you know, one would expect that the the price action early in Asia this morning is gonna unwind some of the the moves that we saw on Friday. Friday night as as the market I think, you know, might have to just understand that the path to a resolution here is not as straightforward as, you know, we would all like it to be. Yeah.
And I wonder if that means that we'll see, you know, the um prices further into the future for oil changing a little bit as well, because, you know, there's been sort of like n you know, it's it's been affected, but obviously nowhere near as much as the near term price. So I wonder if that's gonna change the more we see this going on and the expectation that this could last quite a bit longer.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why did the Hormuz Strait open, close, and reopen again?
0:01–1:26
2
How did the recent US‑Dollar, Aussie‑Dollar and Brent moves affect global markets?
1:26–3:17
3
What is the outlook for oil prices after the failed peace talks?
3:17–5:28
4
How might the expiry of the US‑Iran cease‑fire on April 22 impact markets?
5:28–7:24
5
What are analysts saying about the S&P 500 rally and sector performance?
7:24–9:06
6
How could upcoming CPI releases in Canada, Japan and New Zealand shape inflation expectations?
9:06–10:38
7
What did the RBA’s Sarah Hunter and Andrew Hauser warn about second‑round price effects?
10:38–12:21
8
What key economic data and Fed‑related events should listeners watch this week?
12:21–13:32