Are tariff impacts beginning to show?
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What’s the opening market snapshot and why does it matter for today’s discussion?
The headline inflation number for the US wasn't too bad, but when you look at what's up and what's down, you start to see that perhaps tariffs are starting to have an impact. And that's not the environment where the Fed is going to want to cut, even if the US President wants to see a 300 basis point cut. That's what he said today. And Australian consumer confidence, mixed data from China as well, and earnings we've heard from the banks, but what about the broader economy? It's Wednesday, the 16th of of July twenty twenty five. It's the morning call from NAV. Good morning. Well, the US dollar is on the rise again today. I think this is eight sessions in a row now. It's up naught point six percent today to ninety eight point six on the DXY.
The Aussie is down naught point three percent to just below sixty five point two US cents. The euro is down more than half percent, naught point eight percent off the yen. The pound is naught point three percent lower. And US stocks, well, not doing that well apart from the Nasdaq, which is up naught point two percent. But Nvidia is responsible for a chunk of that. Uh that's up four point. percent today, the SP losing 0.4% and a 1% drop in the Dow. And ten year treasury yields up five basis points, almost up to four point five percent now, up ten basis points in Canada, but small moves down in yields across much of Europe, the UK being the exception where ten year yields are up a couple of basis points.
And Aussie uh ten years yesterday up just one basis point to four point three eight percent. Up seven basis points on futures overnight though. And oil is down again today, naught point seven percent off WTI and Brent. Brent getting down to sixty-eight sixty in this session and uh not far from it now. And Ken Crompton is with me today from Nabin Sydney. So we should start. with US inflation, the CPI number for June year on year, two point eight percent last time, three percent was expected, but two point nine percent uh was the read this time. So it's risen, but not as much as was assumed.
How are the latest US CPI numbers revealing early tariff impacts?
Uh of course it would obviously be better if it was going down. But I'm taking it that this is
Probably good news, isn't it? Yeah, good morning, Phil. I mean certainly the first few minutes of or even the first hour or so of market reaction certainly took things that way. I think particularly with the the core print came in at uh about one tenth under consensus, so point two. So all looked um all looked quite positive there for for a while. We had um rare r risk assets rallying, we had um in in interest rates falling across the US Treasury curve. But I think what um What turned market sentiment relatively quickly was as people did start to unpack some of the detail in there, um, uh started to show that uh there was certainly plenty of reasons to to to tear that number apart and start to see that there was some decent um sort of early tariff impacts coming through and as a result, particularly with some of the cool goods prices beginning to rise again and even some of the uh there's even some services um stuff that's um
Um the the that's rising as well. We've seen yields off um sorry, yields rising sort of quite drastically across the curve. I mean a around five basis points or so in net moves in treasuries. So um that's been the the the the bigger change. The the the bigger point to know really has been that some of some of these goods prices are starting to to to show some changes.
Not cars though, strangely. I mean new and used cars actually added deflation to the picture, which actually helped helped keep that number down.
Yeah, and I mean that's probably where you can start to more clearly even sort of say there are some tariff impacts here that some of those some of those goods prices that uh got some carve outs or or some level of exemption from the from from from the tariffs uh where areas where there was less uh where the where there was less inflation. Um, yeah, mobile phones and some of those sort of elec electronic components there was less uh there was less
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What’s the opening market snapshot and why does it matter for today’s discussion?
0:01–1:53
2
How are the latest US CPI numbers revealing early tariff impacts?
1:53–4:32
3
Why are Fed rate‑cut expectations being revised after the tariff‑linked inflation data?
4:32–6:48
4
What does the recent Canadian CPI rise tell us about tariff spill‑over effects?
6:48–8:37
5
How are European industrial production and sentiment surveys shaping the outlook?
8:37–11:09
6
What mixed signals are coming out of China’s Q2 activity data?
11:09–13:19
7
Why did Australian consumer confidence edge higher and what does it imply for the RBA?
13:19–15:41
8
Which earnings trends and corporate updates are most relevant for a tariff‑heavy environment?
15:41–17:21