Australia US deal - we dig it.
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What are today’s key market moves and why are US shares rising?
An eight and a half billion dollar trade deal on rare earths and critical minerals, and it's not just about digging things up, says Anthony Albanese at the White House this morning. So what will it do for the markets today, if anything? Meanwhile, China's trade data shows exports did better, but domestic consumption not so much. And today could be the day that Japan officially gets its first female Prime Minister, but for how long and what does it mean for the Bosch? Tuesday. It's the twenty first of october twenty twenty five. It's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well, US shares are rising. One and a half percent for the NASDAQ, a little over one point one percent for the SP and the Dow. In Europe, the DAX managed one point eight percent of their close.
And the NICI yesterday, three point four percent. Not a lot of movement in the US dollar, but the Aussie is up a quarter percent, up over sixty-five point one US cent. Actually, just about the biggest currency move uh out of the majors this morning. Uh ten-year treasury yields are down a couple of basis points. Point, Aussie 10 years, rose five basis points yesterday to four point one five percent, which is pretty much where they are this morning. And gold is up again, two point two percent for spot, up three point four percent for comics, both around four thousand three hundred and fifty. Spot year to date, up sixty-two percent. If you think that's a lot, silver up two point three percent today, year to date seventy-four percent.
And Nabs Ken Crompt uh is with me today.
How will the $8.5 billion Australia‑US rare‑earths deal affect markets and investors?
First of all, uh in the we small hours, Albo was meeting with uh Anthony Albanese, our Prime Minister. Show a bit more respect, Dobby. Uh he was meeting uh with President Trump at the White House. Uh most journalists were more interested in Ukraine and the Middle East, but there was the this announcement of an eight and a half billion dollar deal that will incl include joint mining activities and US investment in local processing. I mean, like all of these announcements, light on the detail, 'cause I think it was just sort of like on the cuff, wasn't it? But can can we expect much of a market reaction to this, do you think?
Yeah, good morning Phil. Uh look I think I think in terms of the markets that I'm sort of primarily following, you know, um sort of i interest rate markets and those uh and and and that area. Look, the the short answer is probably not, but I wouldn't um I wouldn't want to be too dismissive of the significance of this deal. Unless you does play into a few of the key strategic um elements that that that both the Trump administration and and and Albanese uh and the Australian Australian government sorry have been trying to to get at. I I think um yeah, as well as alongside the deal on rare earths there was also a a a firmer commitment to the AUKUS nuclear submarines deal in there as well. And I think um I mean prob possibly what Australia may have been looking for here was maybe a a few more concessions, yeah, on the the baseline tariffs that we're that that we're paying, you know, we're still this at this ten percent level.
There doesn't seem to have been too much on that. I mean look one could probably look at this and say Australia is, you know, maybe giving up A bit here in terms of um yeah, we have um we've we've made some concessions to even get that ten percent level in terms of um, you know, but uh uh a allowing US beef imports, that sort of thing. Um you know, what we've done here is um offer the US a a a big uh a big thing they need in terms of potential uh ri rare earth project security. And of course we're still not maybe not necessarily getting that much on the other end, except possibly this submarine deal. So the Short answer is once again, yeah, market implications probably not much, but I think the strategic implications there are yeah are are are very interesting.
What strategic benefits does the deal give the United States and Australia beyond minerals?
I mean, um one aspect I've sort of been been looking at quickly, you know, I remember the uh yeah, the Wall Street Journal sort of coined that term of, you know, sort of you know, state sponsored capitalism with um with American style a a few months back and yeah, there is a promise of some yes sort of US government equity interest in some of these rare earth projects proposed in Australia.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What are today’s key market moves and why are US shares rising?
0:01–1:25
2
How will the $8.5 billion Australia‑US rare‑earths deal affect markets and investors?
1:25–3:21
3
What strategic benefits does the deal give the United States and Australia beyond minerals?
3:21–5:28
4
Why is China’s Q3 GDP growth seen as “involution” and what policy responses might follow?
5:28–7:11
5
Will Japan’s first female prime minister stay in power and how could it impact the BOJ?
7:11–8:36
6
How are New Zealand and Canadian inflation numbers influencing their central banks?
8:36–10:33
7
What are the implications of the Australia‑US deal for equity sectors and broader macro trends?
10:33–12:14
8
What are the final takeaways and what should listeners watch for next week?
12:14–14:12