Back from the brink, but not far back
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What was the immediate market reaction to President Trump’s cease‑fire announcement?
Well, ninety minutes before all hell was let loose, President Trump announced a ceasefire had been agreed, and here we are this morning. The straits closed, Israel bombing Lebanon, and Iran says the ceasefire agreement no longer stands. So does the big swing in markets yesterday and overnight start to swing back a bit today? It's Thursday, it's the ninth of April 2026. It's the morning call from NAB. Good morning. Well, as you might expect, oil down after yesterday's news, so WTI is down seventeen percent. It got down to ninety-one a barrel, Brent down twelve percent, it almost got down to ninety a barrel. It's back up to nic ninety-six now. Big moves up in shares, the S P in the US up two point four percent, two point eight percent for the Nasdaq.
The Eurostocks fifty has risen five percent, so is the DAX, a naught point nine percent drop in the US dollar, a one percent rise for the Aussie, it's up to 70.4 US cents now. The euro and the yen up 0.6%. Aussie 10 years at 4.96%. Bond yields well down in Europe, down 26 basis points in Italy, down 20 in France, 19 in the UK, 14 in Germany. US 10-year treasuries, well, they fell six basis points, but they've climbed back up again. So that's an interesting difference. And NAB Sky Masters are here today. So a lot of optimism.
How did the sharp decline in oil prices affect equity and currency moves this morning?
Too much, perhaps. I mean, peace talks are going to kick off on Saturday morning with J.D. Vance leading the US team. But the strait is still largely closed. Shipping needs Iranian approval. There's going to be a toll charge. And Iran this morning is saying the US has violated several of the ten points in the ceasefire proposal. Mainly the continued attacks on Lebanon, but a drone entered Iranian airspace, and they say the denial. of the Islamic Republic's right to enrich uranium So I wonder if we're gonna see a swift reversal in some of those market moves because s ships are not gonna get through the state, clearly. I mean shares are already moving down and the gains in ten year treasuries, as I said, have been completely wiped out even before this news.
Yeah, good morning, Phil. Obviously th the headline news of the two week ceasefire s was obviously positive. It did provide a bit of relief to investors who were fearing the escalation in the tensions which Trump had been threatening. So no surprise that you did see that initial sort of risk on type of price action, a strong move down in oil prices, a strong rally in equities, all of which you've already uh sort of discussed in in the open. But It's still very fragile, isn't it? And as you say there there are reports now that because Israel is still bombing Lebanon, Iran has shut the strait.
Why are investors still cautious despite the early rally in stocks and bonds?
Iran believes that in its ten point deal that included Lebanon, Israel is saying it didn't And there's all these contradictions in terms of in terms of what's been what's been reported. So Yeah,
and what they agreed on, because Iran talks about a ten point plan, the US talks about a fifteen point plan. It sounds as though they both had their own plans and they both agreed on their own plan, but not necessarily the other one. So uh I mean it's and and then Israel wasn't you know, said that they weren't involved in it and now they clearly are. I mean, there's mixed signals, mixed messages. So I mean it was a big question mark as to whether anything was actually agreed.
Yeah, look it di definitely, Phil. I mean I think I think what what you can see is that the ceasefire between at least the US and Iran has happened. And as you mentioned, there'll be talks on Saturday reports that JD Vance is leading the US delegation which will go to Islamabad with talks beginning on Saturday. So focus on what comes out of that. But I think in terms of the market price action There was no follow through from the immediate reaction that you saw in markets. So we saw a lot of that reaction at trading yesterday morning on the news of the the ceasefire. You had that big drop in the oil price. You had a initial big rally in in tenure treasury yields. But they weren't they weren't added to through the overnight session.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What was the immediate market reaction to President Trump’s cease‑fire announcement?
0:01–1:15
2
How did the sharp decline in oil prices affect equity and currency moves this morning?
1:15–2:33
3
Why are investors still cautious despite the early rally in stocks and bonds?
2:33–3:55
4
What are the implications of Iran’s claim that the cease‑fire terms have been violated?
3:55–5:20
5
How might a sustained cease‑fire or reopening of the Strait of Hormuz shift central‑bank policy expectations?
5:20–6:59
6
What is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s new stance on rate hikes and why?
6:59–8:57
7
How are recent German factory orders and Eurozone retail sales influencing ECB rate‑cut forecasts?
8:57–10:45
8
What should listeners watch for in the next 24 hours as the cease‑fire situation evolves?
10:45–12:19