Back where we started from
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Why did the Aussie dollar and US equities end November where they started?
Well, for all the volatility we've seen in November, the Aussie dollar and US equities end the month pretty much where they started. But silver isn't in the same place. Uh, it hit an all-time high on Friday. Gold has bounced back a fair bit too. But there's enthusiasm and hope in the air, it seems. Look at Canada's GDP, for example. But things not going so well in China, which could be bad news for Australia, although it doesn't seem to be so far, does it? It's Monday. It's the first of December 2025, it's the morning call from NAB. Good morning. Well the currencies that grew the most last week, the Kiwi dollar up two point two percent, the Aussie up one and a half percent, finishing at sixty five and a half US cents, whilst the US dollar was down three quarters of one percent on the DXY.
Aussie ten year yields rose six and a half basis points last week, while ten year treasuries were down five, uh ten year guilt yields down almost eleven basis points last week, and Brent Crude was up one percent, WTI a little less. But the real Real winners in commodities were in metals, so gold and copper, both up three point four percent, but silver comics up eleven percent last week, up six point six percent on Friday alone, and getting over fifty-seven an ounce, which is a new record high. And a good week, albeit a short one, for US equities. The Russell two thousand climbed five and a half percent, the Nasdaq up almost five percent, the DAX in Europe up three point two percent, the ASX two. Andard was up two point four percent.
Synabsrae Atrill joins me. So look, we've got some interesting moves there. The Aussie climbing higher, silver and gold on the way up. Even equities are back on the rise.
What does “round‑trip” mean and how did it apply to November’s market moves?
Uh but for equities in the US, I mean they're p they're pretty much back where the November started. So, you know, make sense out of all of that. We've been up and down, haven't we? And the the Aussie climbing. Absolutely.
Yeah, good morning, Phil. Very much uh what we call a round trip, as we use a technical term in markets, where we've come back to where we started, and that applies not just to um to US equities that you mentioned, but you look at the Aussie dollar, it actually started November or ended October at sixty five fifty and it's ended November at sixty five fifty, basically. And you know, it it looks like oh it's a pretty a pretty nothing month, but obviously, you know, middle part of November we had some pretty significant uh falls in uh global equities, obviously led by the US tech sector. You know, as you remember the the AI bubble talk was at its uh zenith, wasn't it? But um so yeah, so but certainly going out the month in a in a pretty good environment as far as risk sentiment is concerned.
And you know Aussie dollar's recovery clearly um owing something to sort of the repricing of uh of the RBA. We've also had a stronger uh Chinese currency, notwithstanding the uh the poor state of the incoming economic data which we'll mention momentarily.
Yeah, it's interesting, isn't it, that we've got uh treasure yields rising even though uh expectations for a cut are also rising at the moment.
Yeah. Well them so it was remember Thursday and Friday were pretty much non you know, non market days because of of Thanksgiving. So yes, we did see Treasury yields up a couple of basis points on average on Friday, but um we've still got the curve what we call bull flattening um over the course of the week there. But um you know, and obviously it's still, you know, being driven I think by those sort of strengthening expectations that the Fed is going to deliver a rate cut next week. And that was obviously sparked by those um John Williams comments that obviously we've mentioned over the course of last week. And I think the market ended on Friday with about an eighty three percent implied probability that they will cut next week.
All right.
How did Canada’s Q3 GDP rebound and what drove the growth?
So look, it seems like we're getting better data as well, doesn't it, around the world. So if we look at Canada, for example, GDP was uh an example of that on Friday, naught point six percent up for Q three.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why did the Aussie dollar and US equities end November where they started?
0:01–1:34
2
What does “round‑trip” mean and how did it apply to November’s market moves?
1:34–3:27
3
How did Canada’s Q3 GDP rebound and what drove the growth?
3:27–5:01
4
What are the implications of Tokyo’s CPI staying above the Bank of Japan’s target?
5:01–7:01
5
Why is German inflation rising again and how might it affect ECB policy?
7:01–9:36
6
What do China’s weak PMI readings mean for global commodity demand?
9:36–11:20
7
How could Australia’s upcoming inflation and GDP data shape the RBA’s next move?
11:20–13:35
8
What are the key takeaways from the US ISM reports and upcoming US data releases?
13:35–14:46