Better European service numbers, but US more so
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What are the latest US, UK and European services PMI numbers and why do they matter?
The services' PMIs were better than expected in Europe, in the UK, and in the US. But manufacturing let everyone down, with a particularly big fall in the Empire Manufacturing Index in the United States. But US equity is still rising because, well, you know, they're exceptional. Haven't you heard? And the data doesn't stop flowing yet. Just because we're only a week from Christmas, we get US retail sales, Aussie Consumer Confidence, and Canadian inflation today. It's Tuesday. Today is the seventeenth of december twenty twenty four. It's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well the US dollar is down a little on the DXY. The Aussie is up a little at sixty three point seven US cents, but a half percent rise in the pound and a naught point three percent fall in the yen.
The two big moves today. Uh Bitcoin also reached another new high as well, breaking one hundred and seven thousand. Uh and the Nasdaq is up over one point two percent, reaching another record high at the close. The S and P not quite at a new high, but it's up naught point four percent today nonetheless, and then The Russell two thousand up nort point six percent, the Dow down a quarter percent. In Europe, shares are largely down nort point four percent off the Eurostocks fifty, half percent off the FTSE one hundred and the DAX, and small moves in bond yields down one basis point for ten year treasuries, the same for German bonds. Uh UK ten year guilts up three basis points. Aussie ten years well, they were up three basis points yesterday to four point three one percent, now closer to four point three three percent on
Futures this morning. And oil is down about 0.9% lower for WTI and Brent. Brent just about seventy three eighty a barrel now. So Nabs Taylor Nugent joins me uh this morning. Uh of course, you know we've uh we've got the continued exceptionalism in the United States, uh certainly if you look at the uh the share market. But US PMIs overnight, uh and actually this was a picture of the world over, but let's start. Uh the services number fifty six point one.
How is the US equity market reacting to strong services data and what records are being set?
Uh it was expected to fall a little uh last time. Instead it was up to fifty eight point five, although manufacturing slid, and that is the story around the world, isn't it? Some well, similar story anyway. Yeah, good.
Good morning. Certainly certainly more so in in the US. We'll talk about Europe in a little bit. The services PMI showing, you know, a little bit better than expected there as well, but certainly nothing like like the US, yeah, moving up to fifty eight point five. Um, so you know, up a couple of points there and at levels that are, you know, pretty pretty unequivocally strong um at those sorts of levels. That's the highest that the services index has been for four or three years, and you know, the the PM There they can be a not a particularly good guide to to growth rates, but certainly the kind of levels that they are now, they're not particularly disconnected from the strong pace of growth that we've seen printed in in the US recently.
Kind of that face value numbers around these sorts of levels are consistent with growth three percent or even a little bit higher through through the fourth quarter. Um worth noting there as well. That's not necessarily uh disagreeing with some of the other indicators as well. The G um the Atlanta Feds GDP now uh indicator is is currently looking at 3.3% for for Q4. So certainly looks like that pattern of you know those growth outcomes just kind of continuing to defy expectations that they will come down a little um come down to earth a little bit are are being repeated through through the four fourth quarter and and the PMI is certainly
Well did for services but down for manufacturing. And then on top of that we had the New York Feds Empire State Manufacturing Index, which was thirty one point two last time. Now I think that was a bit of an outlier, wasn't it? Maybe a bit of a a Trump reaction that uh manufacturers have had a bit of a bit more of a think about. Uh six point four so it was expected to come down, six point four, but it's actually down to naught point two.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What are the latest US, UK and European services PMI numbers and why do they matter?
0:01–1:51
2
How is the US equity market reacting to strong services data and what records are being set?
1:51–4:09
3
Why are US manufacturing PMI figures falling sharply and what does the Empire State Index reveal?
4:09–6:46
4
What is the impact of the US dollar, Aussie dollar and other currency moves on global markets today?
6:46–8:30
5
How are UK employment, wage growth and the Bank of England’s policy stance interconnected?
8:30–11:21
6
What do the latest European services and manufacturing PMI trends indicate for the eurozone outlook?
11:21–14:01
7
How are Chinese economic indicators, like retail sales and yields, influencing global growth expectations?
14:01–16:04
8
What upcoming data releases and central‑bank decisions should investors watch before year‑end?
16:04–17:51