BLS rewrites US jobs history
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Why did the BLS dramatically revise US job growth numbers for the year to March?
A massive revision down in the Bureau of Labor Statistics data for the year to March. That's uh on top of the big revisions down for the year before. You have to wonder how useful these numbers are, given that the Fed relies on them so heavily. The other big news today, Israel has struck a target in Doha, which has upset the Qataris, quite understandably, and quite a lot of the Middle East. But little market reaction today, uh, but I'm not sure it really helps the prospects of a peace deal with Hamas. That the chief negotiator from Hamas was one of those targeted. Plus, the NAV Business Survey and US PPI today, ahead of tomorrow's CPI. It's Wednesday, it's the 10th of September 2025. It's the morning call from NAV.
Good morning. Well, U.S. stocks stocks are high today, not point four percent added to the Dow, a quarter percent for the S P and Nort.4% for the Nasdaq as well, and equities high in Europe as well, but just not point one percent for the Eurostocks fifty, a quarter percent for the FTSE one hundred. But the DAX is down naught point four percent, bond yields are up a little, uh four basis points higher for ten year treasuries, up to four point oh eight percent, up two basis points in Germany and the UK, but up six basis points. Points in France with a new Prime Minister. We'll talk about that. The US dollar is rising, it's up a third of one percent, almost ninety-seven point eight on the DXY. The Aussie is down 0.2%, the Euro down half a percent, the pound down 0.2%.
And despite the Middle Eastern tensions this morning, uh oil is up, but not a great deal. Not point six per cent higher for Brent and WTI, uh Brent close to sixty six forty a barrel. Uh so it's It's Reatrol on the call today. So let's look at the Aussie first of all, team it's a currency, man. It it got over sixty six US cents, sixty six point two, but not for long. But I think you'd have to go back to July, wouldn't you, to to see it that high.
How are the BLS revisions and Middle‑East tensions influencing today’s equity and bond markets?
So I'm curious, what's what's giving it the boost today? Yeah.
In terms of looking at overall FX moves that's helped the Aussie hire, you'd have to say this has been a yen led move. So um one helpful cause there has been uh um a Bloomberg BOJ source story saying that notwithstanding um you know what's going on politically in Japan at the moment, that might not necessarily be an obstacle to the uh Bank of Japan, you know, making the next step of its um uh uh monetary policy normalization process. process even as uh as early as October. Now I'd be very sceptical uh at the moment that that uh given how drawn out the process of uh electing a new leader and even when the LDP elects a new leader, it's not obvious that um you know the LDP will be able to muster you know a coalition um in order to uh to ensconce that person as the Prime Minister, given that uh the LDP um you know has a minority
minority in both houses of Parliament. But anyway, the the the yen was strengthening and and that story I think gave it an added boost. So it was a sort of bit of a you know a rising tide floating all all boats if you like. But Aussie was certainly showing a little bit of independent strength. And um you know, so sixty six twenty. But obviously things have sort of reversed during the course of the European day. But um you know we're sort of, you know, still of the view that uh you know As far as the third quarter is concerned, you know, Aussie you know finishing plus or m you know one side or other of sixty six is the forecast that we've had for a while. But still, you know, the FX strategy view you know is still that as we go into Q four we are still expecting that um you know US dollar weakness, um, you know, assuming that the Fed starts delivering on the rate cuts that are now being
discounted, you know, is going to bring about an a weaker dollar enough to to to move the Aussie sort of clear of that sixty six levels. But it has been you know like watching paint dry. Um in terms of seeing that sort of sixty four to sixty six range prevail really since um really since late April.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why did the BLS dramatically revise US job growth numbers for the year to March?
0:01–1:46
2
How are the BLS revisions and Middle‑East tensions influencing today’s equity and bond markets?
1:46–4:10
3
What is driving the Australian dollar’s recent strength and how is the yen’s move affecting it?
4:10–6:35
4
Why are analysts calling for faster Fed rate cuts after the jobs data shock?
6:35–8:43
5
How credible are the revised payroll numbers and what does that mean for policymakers?
8:43–10:50
6
What impact did Israel’s strike on a building in Doha have on oil prices and market sentiment?
10:50–13:39
7
Which inflation indicators (CPI, PPI) are coming out today and how might they affect the Fed’s next moves?
13:39–15:37
8
How will France’s new 39‑year‑old prime minister influence European bond yields and fiscal policy?
15:37–17:30