Buy baby buy
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Why did Australian home loans spike in December – policy quirk or sign of an RBA rate hike?
A big spike in home loans in Australia in December. Buy baby by. Is it just a one off thanks to government policy? Or is it another reason for the RBA to lift rates again? A spike in jobs in the US as well. Is this an argument against the case for another cut by the Fed? Well, not if you look at how concentrated those jobs are.
twenty twenty six, it's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well the US dollar is flat now, but the Aussie is up naught point nine percent, up to seventy one point four US cents. Not much movement in the UK or Europe, but the yen is also up one percent today. US equities are pretty flat too, uh ever so marginally down. But in Europe the DAX is down half a percent. The FTSE one hundred is up one point one percent. And small movements in bond yields, ten in year treasuries are up one basis point to four point one five percent, down two or three three through much of Europe, but Aussie 10 years down seven basis points yesterday to 4.75%, but back up to 4.8% on futures this morning. And oil is higher.
Let's look at that first with now to Taylor Nugent who joins me. Then we'll look at payrolls and then we'll look at some of the Aussie data. But just quickly on oil, WTI is at 1.5%, just about 65% a barrel and Brent is at 1.3% and not far off 70%. This is the uncertainty that remains about Iran and there are fears that maybe things are gonna start escalating there.
Yeah, good good morning, Phil. As as you say, it does seem to be um Iran headlines that are are capturing attention there and oil, you know, day by day continues to be sensitive to those changing perceptions of Iran risk. The news the news overnight does seem to be some reporting in the Wall Street Journal that Trump administration officials had discussed whether to seize um oil tankers um involved in the transportation of of Iranian oil. Um, you know, said that the so far are h held off, but that certainly could be a risk that um you know something that would uh you know risk get some retaliation from from Tehran.
Well I mean they did this for Venezuela, didn't they? But this is a much higher stakes game.
Yeah, that that's right. And so again, just kind of that that shifting risk um assessment feeding in into the oil market. There was also some reporting from from Axios that said a an aircraft carrier strike group could be could be sent to the region if if um those nuclear um talks on the nuclear programme fail. So, you know, still some you know, still high stakes in in that and you know, being reflected in oil market volatility again. And
the AIA has just released its latest short term energy outlook as well, which is forecasting oil production uh will remain flat this year at thirteen point six million barrels a day, whereas before they're actually predicting it would fall a little bit, but not a great deal. So um but interesting in the higher prices mean the US could produce more, so that that could push out, but up. But anyway, let's look at payrolls for the United States. The uh unemployment rate fell and the payrolls number itself Wealth rose in January by one hundred and thirty thousand jobs, which is actually double what was expected, and the most in a in a month since december twenty twenty four. It was a bit of a surprise.
Yeah, good good numbers from payrolls across the um those the payrolls numbers at plus um one thirty K as as you say, well above expectations and that one tenth decline in in the unemployment rate, which was also um a surprise relative to consensus for unchanged. Um you know, at the at the usual risk of of false precision, if you are looking for the second decimal place, it's four point two eight. So it was on on the good side of a four point three as as well in a and a 10 basis point decline. Um, I think, you know, it is that household survey that is is the key uh to look for here. We know that Fed officials um at their at their recent meeting put in the statement that they you know was seeing some signs of stabilization uh in in the labour market and and the unemployment rate was you know key to to that.
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