Buying Time
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How is the extended Gulf ceasefire influencing global equity markets?
Well, it seems like the ceasefire in the Gulf is going to be extended and peace talks will resume and it's almost over, according to President Trump, and markets seem to like that. US equities are higher, the Aussie dollar is stronger, and markets really putting all of this behind us. Well, I we still have the much higher oil price, of course, and that's going up today, not down. It's Thursday, it's the sixteenth of April, twenty twenty six. It's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well, another strong day for US equities. The Nasdaq is up another one percent. The S P is up half a percent and getting over seven thousand to a new all-time high. Whereas the Eurostocks fifty is down three quarters of one percent.
The FTSE is down half a percent. The US dollar has fluctuated a little, but not really moving from yesterday. But the Aussie is up half a percent to seventy one point seven US cents. Bond yields are rising today, up four basis points for ten year treasury. And between two and four across much of Europe. And oil today, higher, but just 0.8% for Brent. It's still below ninety-six a barrel. WTI is up one point four per cent. And here is Nab Sally Old. Um so do you find this appetite for US equities a little curious right now? I mean it's being driven by IT and consumer discretionary. I mean it th the flavour of today. You know, look at the Aussie dollar as well. It very much is risk gone, isn't it?
It absolutely looks like risk on as you as you said, some pretty solid moves in US equity markets and S and P taking out a new record high overnight. Uh I think as investors uh are basically of the mindset that um you know, we've had some news that we're we're looking at a extension of the ceasefire and investors are now thinking, Well, actually the the worst of the conflict is behind us uh and so it's time to um forget a little bit about that and focus on uh, you know, some of the some of the upcoming earnings results in the US, uh and and also, you know, an economy that, you know, so far continues to be holding up reasonably well and showing some uh resilience and of course, you know underpinned by, you know, what we know is already uh a a reasonably robust t tailwind from the whole AI story.
Well and banks, mixed response from banks.
Why are US equities rallying while European markets lag behind?
So as you say, the ending season for Q One has kicked off. Uh we've had quite a few of the banks already, uh JP Morgan and Goldman for example, doing pretty well.
Yeah, that's right. So, you know, I think, um, obviously these earnings numbers predate the Iranian conflict and so uh if we think about uh, you know, what was going on um, you know, before the conflict started uh in in early March, late February, uh, you know, we were looking at revising up global growth forecasts, markets were trading reasonably well, um, et cetera, et cetera. So, you know, I think the fundamentals for um um you know, for bank earnings were pretty solid, so no surprises that uh you know they're continuing to print some some pretty good numbers.
Yeah. And you know, on the war, just um w we will move off it, but as you say, there's hopes that um, you know, th the we're gonna get an extension to the ceasefire and that talks will resume. So the army chief mediator from Pakistan is in Tehran right now, trying to sort of work on narrowing the gaps and Donald Trump is saying he thinks it's close to being over now because uh they want to deal very badly, but because he said that before and he also said if they don't reach a deal it's only gonna take
those tankers that are getting through are actually mainly optimistically heading into the Gulf, not out of it. But there we are. I think four, not all super tankers, but four did get out yesterday. So there is a you know, oil is getting out. I guess that's the that that's the other positive sign, isn't it? Although you look at the oil price and it's up again today.
Yeah, that's right. So uh y you know, like we've got the n the naval blockade going on. As you said, um there are some ships that are managing to sort of get in and out of of the strait.
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Chapters
7 chapters
1
How is the extended Gulf ceasefire influencing global equity markets?
0:01–2:14
2
Why are US equities rallying while European markets lag behind?
2:14–5:21
3
What role does AI‑driven tech momentum play in the S&P 500’s new record high?
5:21–7:53
4
How are bank earnings and the Q1 results shaping market sentiment?
7:53–10:27
5
What impact does the Strait of Hormuz naval blockade have on oil prices and supply?
10:27–12:56
6
How are bond yields and central‑bank policy expectations evolving after the conflict?
12:56–14:44
7
Why is the Australian dollar holding steady despite global volatility?
14:44–16:26