Calm Down
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How did the easing of Iran tensions affect US market sentiment?
Well it seems President Trump might be in no rush to take on Iran, or maybe that's just what he wants us to think. In any case, a lot of the risk sentiment seems to have shifted away, and the US focus has been on better jobless claims numbers and a couple of positive regional surveys as well. And the UK, surprise too, its GDP is growing faster than expected. Well it's growing. That wasn't guaranteed. Uh but a relatively quiet end to our first week back. It's Friday. It's the seventeenth of january twenty twenty six. It's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well, the US dollar is up naught point three percent today, and equities have bounced back. The NASDAQ is up naught point eight percent, not point seven percent for the SP, shares up in Europe as well.
Uh bond yields are a little higher in the United States, quite a bit higher in the UK. Ten year guilt yields up five basis points today. Aussie ten year yields fell three basis points yesterday to four point six eight percent. This morning on futures, though, back up to four point seven three percent. And big falls in oil down four and a half. For Brent to 63.50 a barrel, down 4.8% for WTI, which is around 59 a barrel. Small moves down in gold and silver after yesterday's record high. Actually, silver did fall as much as 7% at one stage, but it's retraced most of those losses. And uh Nabs Gavin friend joins me today. So um some of the uncertainty, particularly over what might happen in Iran, seems to have
eased, I mean President Trump saying the Ayatollah is no longer killing protesters, which was his his reason for going in there.
What impact did the latest US jobless‑claims data have on equity and bond markets?
So he does seem to be backtracking a bit, doesn't he? Or maybe that's just what he wants us to think.
Yeah, morning, Phil. I think that's right. I mean, you know, he has said that this is a you know, a watch and see situation. He's repeated that. Uh Thursday. Um, he said that he's received some good intelligence from uh people aware of what's going on, allegedly. And uh, you know, that's his assessment at the moment that as you say, they uh they have said uh they're gonna stop the stop the killing. Uh Um but it's a it's a movable thing, isn't it? Right. You know, and um on the day markets are taking it well, um, you know, because um obviously, you know, threat of military action, whatever, whatever you think about the regime. Um and we've seen that reflected uh in you know, um uh equity prices moving up, yields moving up.
There are other factors driving that as well. There've been some decent corporate results, particularly Particularly in the tech sector, there's been some positive US economic numbers which we can talk about. But uh obviously the geopolitical context is very important and uh a little bit of stability here um you know I think is uh is helping things out a little bit. And
Wall Street Journal today saying, well actually even if he wanted to, has he got all his resources in the right place? He's got twelve warships in the Caribbean uh right now, so uh you know, he can't fight on too many fronts at the same time perhaps.
Well no that that's that's a that's a point is well made. I mean he's got another one in the uh the South China Sea. He does have uh he has planes and he has access obviously to military bases across Europe for those kinds of things, but it's a point well made and uh a point that has that has been suggested as perhaps he hasn't quite got got all the ducks in a row yet.
Why is the UK’s unexpected GDP growth important for European markets?
So shares uh bouncing back, but as you say, it's it's actually not just tech, is it? It's fairly broad range. So the Russell two thousand has beaten the S P for the tenth session in a row. So, I mean, there's a bit of a rotation. We're s we're seeing that strength back in in tech stocks again today, but it's uh but it's cross the board. We had strong earnings, of course, from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, so um that's helped the banking sector, but utilities and industrials are all also doing well. This is a broad based growth we're seeing back in the share market.
Yeah, it is. I mean I think it's important we shouldn't overlook the importance of the tech thing because, you know, we've been coming a through the last few weeks where increasingly investors have been questioning, you know, the extent of the CapEx drive into data centers and all that and the funding thereof.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
How did the easing of Iran tensions affect US market sentiment?
0:01–1:30
2
What impact did the latest US jobless‑claims data have on equity and bond markets?
1:30–3:10
3
Why is the UK’s unexpected GDP growth important for European markets?
3:10–5:14
4
How are tech earnings and AI‑driven CapEx fueling the recent equity rally?
5:14–7:08
5
What do the recent US jobless‑claims trends suggest about Federal Reserve policy?
7:08–9:00
6
How are inflation expectations evolving in the UK and what could that mean for BoE rate cuts?
9:00–10:48
7
What does Germany’s return to growth indicate for the broader Eurozone outlook?
10:48–12:59
8
Which upcoming events (Davos, US Supreme Court, NZ PMI) could shape market direction next week?
12:59–14:23