Ceasefires – one ends as another opens up, perhaps
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How is the new Ukraine‑Russia ceasefire affecting global market uncertainty?
Just how excited will the markets be to a ceasefire deal for Ukraine? Putin and Trump have apparently agreed to a 30-day end of fighting, but there are caveats. Well look at the market reaction, which is not much, frankly, because it is a day of risk-off, built on uncertainty, not helped by the ceasefire being broken in Gaza. But Germany's parliament agrees to spending outside their fiscal break loads of money and shares down in the United States, up in Europe. Is that becoming a thing? There was a Bank of America report on that today. It's Wednesday, it's the nineteenth of march twenty twenty five. It's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well, the US dollar tried to climb a little today, twice, but ultimately it's down about naught point one percent on yesterday, below one hundred three point two on the DXY, down four point eight percent year to date.
It's been a bad session for the Aussie dollar, it's down naught point four percent to sixty three point six US cents. The pound is up naught point one percent, up naught point two percent for the euro, a half percent wi rise in the Swiss franc, and US shares well down Nort six percent lower for the Dow at the close, one point one percent off the S P, the Nasdaq down one point two seven percent, the Russell two thousand down naught point nine percent. Uh the big tech stocks are dragging shares down. So Meta was down over four percent earlier, Nvidia was down almost three percent, uh Alphabet is about two point four percent lower now. All big stocks uh tech stocks have taken a hit and incidentally they didn't take
part in yesterday's rally either. So even when shares were up, they were down. But shares climbed in Europe. The DAX up one percent at their close, the Eurostocks fifty up naught point seven percent. The FTSE one hundred up naught point three percent. Ten year treasury yields are down two basis points now in Europe. They were flat on the day in most countries, uh although a bit of movement during the day. Aussie ten years yesterday were down one basis point to four point four percent. Now on Futures up a few basis points higher than that this morning. And gold is up one point two percent to around three thousand and forty dollars.
Why did gold break the $3,040 level and the VIX jump over 6% on the same day?
So it's settling in above that three thousand mark that it broke above for the first time this week. And the VIX index uh back on shares, that's up six percent today, almost hitting twenty two point six. It wasn't sha far short of twenty eight a week ago, but today marks another tilt upwards. A year ago, it was below forty. So there's been a lot of uncertainty, a lot to upset the Apple cart today. Let's examine them with NAB Sky Masters in Sydney. So the bad news: a ceasefire broken in Gaza, the good news, this agreement for, well, basically a trillion euros of spending approved by Germany's parliament, much of that related to military spending. And the don't quite know yet news is that long phone call between Putin and the United States.
And Trump, but the news that's coming out is that there has been a thirty day ceasefire agreed on energy and infrastructure targets and on maritime uh targets in the in in the Black Sea. The question is what's the caveat around all of that? It sounds like it's a it's a ceasefire, uh but you can't you know, Ukraine can't get any weaponry in, any assistance in, not going to get any intelligence. Um so how's Ukraine gonna feel about that? That's the question. So it's obviously not a done deal just yet. So yeah, a day of uncertainty against Sky.
Yeah, good morning, Phil. Um, another another volatile uh session, um, with some some Big moves in in markets. And just just to your point there on the the Trump and Putin um phone call, yes, sort of there there does seem to be some form of agreement but but there's a lot there's a lot to still understand on what was discussed and um the the the way forward. So to date the market reaction to that phone call has been pretty minimal and I think it's because everyone's focusing on everything else that that that happened ov overnight.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
How is the new Ukraine‑Russia ceasefire affecting global market uncertainty?
0:01–1:58
2
Why did gold break the $3,040 level and the VIX jump over 6% on the same day?
1:58–4:12
3
What are the caveats of the 30‑day Ukraine cease‑fire and how might Ukraine react?
4:12–7:13
4
Are investors shifting from U.S. equities to European shares after the latest Bank of America survey?
7:13–9:12
5
What does Germany’s trillion‑euro defence spending package mean for European bond supply?
9:12–11:44
6
How did stronger U.S. industrial production and higher Canadian CPI influence rate‑policy expectations?
11:44–13:39
7
What are the market implications of the upcoming BOJ and Fed policy meetings?
13:39–15:51
8
What key takeaways should listeners keep in mind as the episode wraps up?
15:51–17:19