China’s tariff hopes. A less worse scenario.
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Could Donald Trump really halve the tariffs on China?
So could Donald Trump be about to halve the tariffs on China? Still much higher than they were, of course, but it's the direction of travel that has obviously gone markets a little bit more excited today. But a windback of extreme tariffs still gives you very high tariffs. So is it really such good news? Well equity markets seem to think so again today, and the dollar has regained some ground as well. It's Thursday, it's the 24th of April, 2025. It's the morning. Call from Nav. Well, the US dollar is up again. It's up another naught point nine percent on the DXY, ninety nine point eight. The Aussie is down naught point one percent at sixty three point six US cents. The pound is down half percent, the yen down one point three per cent.
The same for the Swiss franc and equities uh much higher at the close, as much as two point four percent up for the Nasdaq, one point six percent for the S P and one point one percent for the Dow. Uh most of those came back a fair bit in the last hour. Of trade in the United States, but a great day for European equities as well. The Eurostocks 50 up 2.8% at close, 3.1% for the DAX, 2.1% for the Cat Caron, just 0.9% though for the FTSE 100. And 10-year Treasuries are down just two basis points though, but German 10-year Bundes up five basis points. Aussie 10 years, well, they were up one basis point yesterday to 4.26% now on futures, up five basis points. Points on that to four point three one percent this morning.
Uh so a bit like yesterday, uh today, except that oil is down today. Uh two point two percent off WTI, two percent off Brent, which is uh a little over sixty-six US uh US dollars now. So, uh what have we got?
How are US equity and dollar markets reacting to the tariff‑cut chatter?
A more moderate US president, perhaps? Is that what's going on? Here's Nabs Taylor Nugent. So less tariffs, particularly on China, not getting rid of the Fed share. Yeah. Uh is that what everyone's happy about? Because I mean if it is, I mean we still end up with high tariffs, maybe ten percent tariffs on everything, maybe sixty percent or so on China if it's halved, which is actually what Donald Trump had indicated, those sort of numbers he indicated at the at the onset of his presidency. It's still a big change to the global order of international trade. But equities are treating this like it is the best news ever.
Yeah, good morning, Phil. I think I think that's that's a fair reflection, just kind of a softer tone on those kind of those two fronts that were capturing most of market attention recently, the the trade situation with China and then those threats uh of firing the the Fed chair on on both of those. The US evening on on Tuesday, so you know, a bit after yesterday's edition of the podcast and and early in our morning yesterday you had comments. comments from Trump that kind of set the tone for the next oh, I don't know, eighteen hours or so at at l at least saying that um he had uh no intention of firing Powell and he never had any intention of of firing Powell and so that you know that kind of seemed to be a pretty meaningful step back from some of the some of the comments that that he'd made recently and so that quietens some of those fears a a little bit.
And then as you say on uh on trade as well, he also mentioned at a a similar time that um, you know, the US is going to be very good to China, um, that uh tariffs will will come down substantially but but won't be zero. Um and that, you know, again um played to to those sorts of of themes of potential de escalation there. Well the
Wall Street Journal is saying cutting them maybe cutting them in half. Uh although it's very clear to p he's quick keen to point out he's not made a final decision on this. So, you know, who knows? It's just speculation at this stage.
Exactly, yeah. That that kind of Wall Street Journal reporting kind of, you know, added some, you know, some more fuel to to um hopes that there could be uh some
What did the Wall Street Journal and White House say about the size of the tariff cuts?
Some moves there towards towards deescalation. They were reported on a a senior White House official saying that the China tariffs are likely to come down to between fifty to sixty-five percent.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Could Donald Trump really halve the tariffs on China?
0:01–1:35
2
How are US equity and dollar markets reacting to the tariff‑cut chatter?
1:35–3:41
3
What did the Wall Street Journal and White House say about the size of the tariff cuts?
3:41–6:09
4
Why does Christine Lagarde think lower tariffs could be disinflationary for Europe?
6:09–8:03
5
What do the latest PMI and manufacturing data reveal about global growth?
8:03–10:05
6
How are wage‑tracker and Beige Book figures shaping ECB and Fed outlooks?
10:05–11:50
7
Which economic releases (NZ consumer confidence, IFO, jobless claims, etc.) should investors watch today?
11:50–14:09
8
Will a possible US‑China tariff de‑escalation halt the recent fall in the US dollar?
14:09–15:01