Choppy markets settle as Middle East war risk fades
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Why did the US dollar rise while the pound fell today?
Well it's been a choppy session with worries over Iran and over AI two, but that's all calmed down now, so moves are quite modest ultimately. Except for the pound weaker there as unemployment rises. Uh we'll also take a look at the RBA minutes from yesterday. The rate increase wasn't a certainty. And wages data for Australia today. It's Wednesday, it's the eighteenth of February, twenty twenty six. It's the morning call from NAV. Good morning. Well the US dollar has climbed a third of one percent on the DXY. Actually it peaked over ninety seven and a half on the DXY today, so year to date though, and it's now just one point two percent lower. But not much movement in the Aussie dollar or any currency really except the pound, which is down naught point six percent.
The Aussie is still sitting there around seventy point seven US cents. Uh there's been, well, reasonably wild movements in shares, but uh on their first day back, but we finished with the the NASDAQ and the SP ever so slightly down. But prices rising in Europe, the DAX Eurostocks 50 and the FTSE 100 all closing up there, up 0.7% or more. Bond yields are a bit lower across Europe, mainly just a couple of basis points lower. Flat for 10 year treasuries, Aussie 10 year yields were down to four point six eight percent yesterday, rising three or four basis points overnight on F. Futures and oil is well down, bent down two point two percent, just over sixty-seven a barrel. Uh big falls in gold and silver as well.
Silver is down six point eight percent this morning. And here's Nabs Rodrigo Catrill in Sydney. So a bit of movement.
How have Iran‑related geopolitical tensions impacted oil prices?
Actually, if we look at the sort of intraday stuff, the movements have been bigger in a lot of categories, like for oil and US Treasuries, they've sort of moved a bit in each direction. And part of that is But the the Iran story, which sort of evolved in the last twenty four hours, it was looking uh pretty bad. There was, you know, d Donald Trump talking about regime change in Iran would be the best thing that could happen, and the Ayatollah says, you know, he sees things differently and he's gonna respond. But then now, you know, talks are progressing quite well, we're told. So uh peace on earth, Lieutenants. Yeah, morning Phil.
Um it's certainly good news in in in that sense. Um I suppose when you look at the details, there's there's quite a bit to um that they still need to agree on. Um if anything, you could probably say well it was constructive because they want to carry on talking. Um but in a sense the the the really meaty stuff is is what is coming and then they need to agree exactly on um basically this exchange where they reduce the the nuclear program uh in exchange for uh uh you know the US lowering sanctions on on on Iran. So that's the bit that um really really will determine whether this thing can can fly or not. But on the days there've been definitely positive we've seen You know, two percent uh or rather two dollar decline in in oil prices and and that's contributed to um to not only uh to to decline in NOC, which was another underperformer as well, uh when you look at GT and PS.
Yeah, yeah. And then tech, a bit of uh volatility there. The Nasdaq was down one point two percent at one stage, but it has bounced back. No clear reason, it's just speculation again a uh about AI again, isn't it? Everyone's back from the holiday and they're going, Are we we're behind this or not? And uh people have different ideas.
Yes, and and I think uh if anything kind of the the recent sort of news in the last couple of weeks just tells you about that kind of cross section volatility. There's a lot of um um kind of guessing on which uh which companies are gonna be the winners or losers even within sectors as opposed to just just the a within AI.
What did the RBA minutes reveal about future rate decisions?
Um because of how AI may affect certain certain sectors like software and who knows which one's gonna next, you know, uh or the next week. So certainly that cross section volatility that as you mentioned, y you you look at the sort of the index level, um not a not a great deal has changed, but when you start looking at sort of how the performance of stocks or sectors is it's certainly a bit wilder.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why did the US dollar rise while the pound fell today?
0:01–1:31
2
How have Iran‑related geopolitical tensions impacted oil prices?
1:31–3:32
3
What did the RBA minutes reveal about future rate decisions?
3:32–5:29
4
How is the Australian dollar’s appreciation linked to monetary policy?
5:29–7:54
5
What does Canada’s latest CPI tell us about the pace of disinflation?
7:54–9:46
6
Why is UK unemployment rising and what does it mean for wages?
9:46–11:31
7
What are the expectations for Australia’s Wage Price Index and its RBA implications?
11:31–13:02
8
How might the RBNZ’s forward guidance affect New Zealand rate outlook?
13:02–13:11