Courting global tariffs as US GDP takes a hit
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What did the Supreme Court decide about US tariffs and how did the administration respond?
Well, you wouldn't have to have been living under a rock to avoid the news that the US Supreme Court has decided that most of the President's tariffs are illegal and that he's hit back with a global fifteen percent tariff instead. We'll look at the implications of that. The surprise in US GDP, much less than expected, the latest global PMIs, and we're all on Iran Watch, of course. And we'll look at what's scheduled for the week ahead. I think that'll do. Uh it's Monday, it's the twenty third of November 2023. six it's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well, the US dollar fell a little on Friday, uh down below ninety-seven point eight, now down about a third of one percent. The Aussie is up a third of one percent.
Actually, the biggest mover really out of the major currency is up above seventy point eight US cents. Bond yields a couple of basis points higher for ten year treasuries, a couple of basis points lower in the UK and France, but not much movement really. Aussie ten years fell six basis points on Friday to four point seven two percent, back up to four point seven. Five percent now on futures and US equities continue to push higher than Nasdaq up another 0.9%. You know what? A couple of more days like that, and it'll be uh back to hitting new record highs. And oil is up slightly on Friday, but only about 0.1%. Obviously, there were big gains earlier in the week, and silver rose six percent, spot gold up over two percent, and Bitcoin lost one point six percent yesterday in uh US dollar terms.
So now Rodrigo Cotrill is with me today. I'm sure most people know the news now on tariffs, the the Supreme Court ruling that made them illegal under the Emergency Powers Act and the way the president has reacted by announcing uh global tariffs of ten percent, then fifteen percent over the week. It's stay a weekend, it's still at fifteen percent now, actually, as we speak. Uh anything could change, of course. But I mean it do Rodrigo, do I mean is there a real understanding of what this is, this fifteen percent? Does that mean All tariffs now have gone. And, you know, question mark over whether they need to be paid back. And these fif this fifteen percent applies to everybody. Does it not apply to those people who've got a trade deal?
I mean, there's still a a lot of question marks, aren't there?
Yeah, th I think that that is that is a fair observation. So in terms of the the the ruling, um uh the Supreme Court decided that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the IEEE P A does not authorize the president to impose these tariffs. So um in terms of what what what which tariffs are we talking about? Well um it's quite a lot of them, but it's it's essentially the ones that have been implemented for Canada, Mexico uh China and also all the tariffs, uh the reciprocal tariffs that President Trump imposed on Liberation Day, which pretty much apply to almost everyone. Yeah. So in terms of the revenue, um the estimates have been swinging around between one hundred and thirty to two hundred billion of of um the tariff revenue that has been collected.
So uh the estimate is that uh up to now there's been around two hundred and eighty nine billion being collected. Um our international economists uh suggest that the number is probably around one hundred and seventy billion um that aff it's affected by this this ruling. So it's a you know at least two thirds of of the tariff revenue that the government has raised. So it's significant. Now what President Trump has done in terms of announcing the ten percent global tariff, um which um is obviously been lifted to fifteen percent, that is uh from section one hundred twenty two uh which from a legal perspective i it means that the president is allowed to to impose this tariff for one hundred and fifty days.
Then what the president has also said is that after that those hundred and fifty days he will use the three hundred and one framework of the Trade Act to make uh those tariffs uh more more enduring or longer lasting. But to actually do that
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Chapters
4 chapters
1
What did the Supreme Court decide about US tariffs and how did the administration respond?
0:01–6:10
2
How does the new 15% global tariff differ from the previous tariff regime?
6:10–10:18
3
Which countries and products are affected by the 15% tariff and are any exemptions expected?
10:18–14:41
4
How did global currency markets react to the tariff announcement, especially the Aussie dollar?
14:41–17:12