Crises ignored
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Why aren’t South Korea’s martial‑law drama and France’s no‑confidence vote moving the markets?
Well, South Korea imposes martial law, then has the government vote it out. So will the president there survive? His curious decision. And France has that no confidence vote today. Will Mikhail Barnier survive that one? And even though the overthrow of government seems like something that markets might react to, well, they haven't really. They seem to be more interested in what the Fed has to say. And the big number locally today, Aussie GDP, but NAB's expectation. Are that that probably hasn't really budged too much uh from expectations? And the big number that could move things a little if there's a surprise, the jobs numbers, but that's on Friday. We're only a Wednesday right now. It's the 4th of December, 2024.
It's the morning call from NAV. Good morning. Well the US dollar is down a little today, down naught point one percent on the DXY. The Aussie up a little over naught point one percent to just over sixty four point eight US cents, a similar rise in the euro and the pound and the yen. And just as currencies haven't moved much, bonds are also pretty subdued. Although a three basis point rise in ten year treasury yields up to four point two two percent. German bund yields are also up uh just a couple of basis points, up three for ten year GILTs. Aussie ten years yesterday. We're at 4.3%. This morning they are two basis points higher than that on futures, and we've had small moves down for well, and down and up really for shares in the United States.
So 0.1% lower.
How are U.S. Treasury yields, the DXY and major equity indices reacting this morning?
That's all for the Dow at the close. The S P finished up less than 0.1%, but still able to hit a new high. The Nasdaq up 0.4% and it's also hitting a new record high at 19480 at close In Europe, despite all the uncertainty, the Eurostocks fifty is up almost nort.7% of their close, although a lot of that came from Spain because the CATCAR aren't up just a quarter percent. And the FTSE one hundred uh is up nort six percent this morning, and oil ticking a bit higher as well, up two point eight per cent for WTI and two point six percent for Brent. So uh another reason not to rush into a rate cut for the Fed. Uh let's talk to Sky Masters first of all, I should introduce her uh from Nab in Sydney. So uh so Sky uh job openings in the Jolts numbers came in higher, seven point seven four million from seven point three seven million.
Uh they're expected to rise a little bit, but not by that much.
Yeah, good morning, Phil. It was um a a stronger uh job or or Jolts job opening report as as you said, um, came in above above market expectations. There was a a view that it would it would tick up in in the month of October, but not as much as as as it did. Um, yeah, I think overall the report, you know, i interesting market market reaction to it has has been limited and if I look at um you know market pricing for the December Fed meeting, the market now prices um eighteen basis points of cuts. So around seventy two percent chance. So it's continuing to sort of um edge higher expectations that they will actually cut in December. And so I think, you know, this this jobs report, yes, it was stronger than expected, but it it it it didn't it it hasn't shifted the dial and and if you look into the detail, it is it is still pointing to
and easing in um the US um jobs market, but a gradual a gradual one. Um so, you know, the the the data the data was was was okay. The Um, you know, you saw the the key metric that the Fed often often mentions being the ratio of job postings to unemployment. Um that edged a little bit higher to one point one one from one point oh eight, but it still remains sort of below the levels that we saw last year of about one point three five.
Quits also up.
What does the latest JOLTS jobs‑openings report mean for Fed rate‑cut expectations?
I mean that was interesting, wasn't it? So employees are more willing to, you know, go looking for another job. I mean well, we're talking small increments of course generally, but I mean that's a that is where you could see wages start to increase if that trend was to pick up even more, 'cause of course, you know, you switch jobs for higher wages, that's where you start to get wage growth coming back.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why aren’t South Korea’s martial‑law drama and France’s no‑confidence vote moving the markets?
0:01–1:21
2
How are U.S. Treasury yields, the DXY and major equity indices reacting this morning?
1:21–3:38
3
What does the latest JOLTS jobs‑openings report mean for Fed rate‑cut expectations?
3:38–5:44
4
Will the Fed’s Christopher Waller signals keep a December rate cut on the table?
5:44–7:17
5
How is Australia’s Q3 GDP forecast shaping up and what’s driving public‑sector growth?
7:17–9:35
6
What impact is the OPEC‑plus output‑cut extension having on oil prices today?
9:35–11:44
7
Why could Jerome Powell’s upcoming panel appearance become the key market mover?
11:44–13:08
8
What are the main takeaways as the episode wraps and what’s coming up before the holidays?
13:08–14:23