D-day for Hormuz
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What new threat has President Trump made against Iran’s energy infrastructure?
Well, after dissociating himself from Israel's attack on the South Pars gas field in Iran, the president is now saying he's gonna focus on attacking Iranian energy infrastructure if they don't allow ships through the Strait of Hormuz from today. The markets haven't had the chance to respond to that, but already bond yields are rising sharply, shares are falling, and oil keeps rising. So today is the day we find out whether Trump wants to keep his threat. D Day basically where D is either disaster or delay, perhaps. It's Monday, it's the 23rd of March 2026, is the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well, the US dollar rose 0.4% on Friday. It's still down on the week at 99.65 on the DXY. The Aussie fell 0.9% at 70.2 US cents.
The yen down 1% on Friday. They were the two biggest moves. And big falls in US shares. The Nasdaq lost 2%, 1.5% off the SP, 2% off the Eurostox 50, and the DAX. The NICE fell 3.4%. The ESX 200 lost 0.4%. So there's room for much further falls off the ASX 200 and actually all the other indices we've just spoken about today. Big moves up in bond yields. Ten year treasuries added 13 basis points on Friday to 4.38%. 14 in the UK, uh, where ten-year yields are more or less around the five percent mark, getting over that on Friday. For the first time since 2008, 12 basis points added in France, 19 in it. The Aussie ten years added five basis points, taking them above five percent. In fact, since then they are up to five point one seven percent, and Bitcoin down to sixty-eight thousand eight hundred from seventy-six thousand in the middle of the week last week.
How did global bond yields and equity markets react to the escalating Hormuz crisis?
It had been driving higher with the war, but now it seems to be following the broader trend downwards and it Isn't far halving its value since last October. And oil saving the best till last. It is still higher. 2.8% added to WTI, 3.3% added to Brent on Friday, which is up over $112 a barrel now. So Nabs Rodrigo Catrill is here. So market sentiment definitely got worse on Friday. This was despite Benjamin Yen Netanyahu saying that they acted alone on the attack on the South Pars gas field uh and they won't target energy infrastructure again, uh and that he thought the war would be over a lot faster than people think. Clearly Markets aren't convinced on that.
Um Morningfield, yeah. I I would add that there's there was a bit of a sort of rude awakening, if you like, and realisation that the the prospect of uh the conflict becoming a protected affair uh became a little bit more likely. Um and we will go through sort of the facts of if you like, or the news over the weekend and I think there's nothing there. That suggests that this is gonna end any time soon. If anything, th there's more signs of escalation.
Yeah, there was certainly escalation over the weekend, wasn't there? So this threat of not hitting power plants was short lived because hitting them is exactly what the US President is threatening he's gonna do if Iran doesn't open Hormuz by well, Monday US time. So uh tonight in other words. He wrote on Truth Social if Iran doesn't fully open without threat the Strait of Hormuz within forty eight hours, the US will hit and obliterate Their various power plants, starting with the biggest one first. So there's that.
Why are oil prices spiking above $112 and what does that mean for investors?
The other news over the weekend: the Iranians managed to shoot at the UK US military base in Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, which is four thousand kilometers from Tehran. This is the first time they've used uh intermediate range ballistic missiles. So for all the attacks so far on Iran, Iran still has this firepower, and London is about four thousand. four thousand kilometres from Tehran, and so is everywhere else in Europe. So they're all within target range now.
Yes. So so in terms of the order of play, I think that it's quite important to highlight that, you know, just on Friday Netanyahu said that they will no longer target energy infrastructure. And as you say now that's off the table with President Trump making the threat of tack attacking uh the water infrastructure in particular. Um so it just tells you how um you know things are moving uh and the lack of consistency as well.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What new threat has President Trump made against Iran’s energy infrastructure?
0:01–1:42
2
How did global bond yields and equity markets react to the escalating Hormuz crisis?
1:42–3:21
3
Why are oil prices spiking above $112 and what does that mean for investors?
3:21–5:33
4
What are the implications of Iran’s missile strike on the UK‑US base in Diego Garcia?
5:33–8:00
5
How might the energy‑security shock affect central‑bank policy and inflation forecasts?
8:00–10:09
6
What impact could rising energy costs have on the semiconductor and AI sectors?
10:09–12:24
7
How are currency markets responding to the Hormuz tension and US dollar moves?
12:24–14:45
8
Will Donald Trump follow through on his ultimatum or step back from the threat?
14:45–16:14