De-escalation? Perhaps.
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Why did Tehran reject the US peace proposal and what are its new demands?
Well, markets have been fairly optimistic that the US President is seeking to de-escalate the situation in Iran, but his proposal has been rejected by Tehran and they have their own demands, which will almost certainly be rejected as well. And troops are being sent in. Does that sound like de-escalation? Well, markets have looked at it positively today, although with oil the tide has started to turn and prices are climbing back up again. It's Thursday, it's the 27th. Six of March twenty twenty-six, it's the morning call from Nav. Good morning. Well, oil prices were falling. They are down one point eight percent for WTI and two and a half percent for Brent. Brent, though, is still uh over a hundred, a hundred and two a barrel.
It did get down to around ninety-seven. But here's the thing. Whilst it's down on this time yesterday, it's been rising for much of this session. So from ninety-seven seventy at seven thirty Eastern time uh in the US to almost a hundred and two by one PM. That's uh actually a four and a half percent list lift in the last. Last five hours or so. But US equities are higher today. They're up one percent for the Nasdaq, naught point six percent for the S P. In Europe the DAX and the FTSE are both up one point four percent, the CAC current up almost as much. Bond yields are significantly lower, down four basis points for ten year treasuries, but down twelve for ten year Gilts in the UK, down seven in Germany, down eleven in France.
Aussie ten years were down nine basis points yesterday to four point Just a couple of basis points up from that now on futures and a small rise in the US dollar, but a 0.4% fall in the Aussie dollar, which is around 69.7 US cents now. Again, one of the biggest currency moves overnight. And Taylor Nugent uh joins me today from NAB in Sydney. So, well, cautious optimism is where we are, I guess. I mean that there's hope that talks, which are supposedly ongoing, will arise. arrive at some sort of resolution, although, you know, they're talking, but they're also sending in the troops. So that's sending mixed messages.
Yeah, good good morning, Phil. That's right.
How did oil prices react to the diplomatic deadlock and what does that mean for markets?
Attention is still on the what's happening in in the Middle East and whether there is any potential for an up um you know an an off ramp there. I think, you know, when I look at the you know, the daily moves or the intraday moves over the last little while, I think, you know, there's certainly been a lot of intraday volatility. But, you know, it's interesting when you kind of step back, you know, it t it tends to be oil is still, you know, Brent oil still near a hundred dollars a barrel, a little bit over that now. When the Aussie dollar still somewhere near 70 cents, a little bit below that now. That now. But through all the volatility, there, you know, hasn't been too much movement in some of those key key variables.
That's where we are. We've seen kind of more of a cycle coming through over the last little while in in rates markets. A lot of that sell-off uh that we saw into, you know, early early in the week in into Monday and extending a little bit into Tuesday, that has has retraced a a little bit. That's that's come back back down, you know. Despite some fairly hawkish comments from central bankers that we'll get into. But yeah, I think the the key stories here are, you know, a little bit of an improvement in risk sentiment um over the last 24 hours. And it does seem to be, you know, those ongoing comments that, you know, the US at least is is looking for for talks and and potentially trying to get a negotiated solution.
There's um some reporting that mediators are looking for a a meeting to happen as as soon as this week or or Thursday. Um but you know, I think the the you know the the sides are still very far apart here. You look at
Ah and I think that's why oil's been rising in the last few hours because I mean Iran uh I mean yesterday rejected the fifteen point plan. Uh although Caroline Leavitt in a press conference that's just happened is saying that those fifteen points that have been circulated in the media are not actually the fifteen points that the the US was going into to gun for, b uh perhaps bad choice of words.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why did Tehran reject the US peace proposal and what are its new demands?
0:01–1:57
2
How did oil prices react to the diplomatic deadlock and what does that mean for markets?
1:57–4:40
3
What is the current state of global equity and bond markets after the latest news?
4:40–7:09
4
How are Australian CPI figures influencing expectations for inflation and fuel prices?
7:09–9:51
5
What did ECB President Christine Lagarde say about inflation shocks and future rate moves?
9:51–12:33
6
How are UK and German inflation and consumer‑confidence data shaping central‑bank outlooks?
12:33–14:13
7
What insights will the RBA’s Christopher Kent share on Australian financial conditions?
14:13–14:37
8
What are the key takeaways for investors from today’s geopolitical and economic updates?
14:37–14:37