Doubling Down on Doubling Up
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Why is President Trump doubling down on steel tariffs and what could Europe’s retaliation look like?
Donald Trump is doubling down on his doubling of steel tariffs, so it looks like it will happen this week. So how long before Europe retaliates? Meanwhile, slightly softer data for the United States, a weaker dollar two, but oil higher, why? And today for the US, the jobs data starts with jolts. Who's switching jobs? Who's quitting? How many jobs are there? The precursor to non-farm payrolls at the end of the week that everyone is going to be watching very Very closely to see if Trump's policies in the short term are having an impact on the labour market. It's Tuesday, it's the third of June 2025. It's the morning call from NAB. Good morning. Well, another mixed day for US equities with the Dow little change, the SP up 0.4%, the Nasdaq up 0.7%, shares mainly down in Europe, 0.3% off the DAXIC close, 0.2% off the CAC current, and the Euro.
Stocks 50, but the FTSE one hundred managed only just uh to finish in the green. Bond yields have pushed higher in this session. Well, in the US anyway, up six basis points for ten year treasuries, just two or three basis points higher across much of Europe and the UK. Uh so the US is on its own there, perhaps. Aussie ten years finished up at four point two six percent yesterday, up four basis points since on futures this morning. The US dollar is naught point six percent. Weaker on the DXY at 98.8. That's down almost 9% year to date. The Aussie though up 1%, not far off 65 US cents. The pound is up 0.6%, 0.8% higher for the euro, 0.9% higher for the yen, and oil markedly higher, despite OPEC plus increasing supply, 3.5% higher for WTI and Brent as well.
Brent up to 65 a barrel. So now Abs Rodrigo Catrullis with me. Let's start with that. Uh what is it with oil today?
How are the latest US equity moves and bond‑yield changes reflecting trade‑policy uncertainty?
Um morning Phil. Well I I think it's a combination of things. Um but sadly there's there's some Speculation. Um the the OPEC Plus story is kind of a mixed one because in terms of the announced uh increase in production, um some have argued that it wasn't as big as expected, but at the same time, um the puzzling part of the whole thing is that there's a lot of uh commodity analysts suggesting that OPEC Plus is determined to increase production um and that we should be expecting even more. More increases, uh potentially three more increases over over coming months. Um so the the the drive here is still or the objective here is still to to penalize those that are not complying and driving the price down and and there seems to be quite a strong commitment to it.
So so that's kind of a plus and minus factor, if you like, to prices dynamics. But the other of course is that um the trade tensions and even the the news around what's going on between the Ukraine and Russia in terms of all those bombing is also potentially affecting uh or could have a potential impact on supply. Oh good.
Kinda makes sense, doesn't it, after that attack on four Russian Russian military bases, that was uh that was fairly bold by the Ukrainians. Then th they met today uh overnight. Uh they've agreed on more prisoner swaps, but that was about it. The talks lasted an hour and that's it for now. So there's uh there's absolutely no progress. Yeah.
Yeah. Uh I mean I don't think anyone was expecting a a truce today or after those talks. Um so I think that the the positive is for one that they're talking to that there's been some sort of olive brunch being handed over. So um uh but certainly that that's only at early early stages. But um yeah, d I think to your point earlier that there there's been a bit of a maybe rude awakening by Russia that um the Ukrainians can do some damage in Russia and and that's you know obviously um a concern for everyone 'cause it could escalate tensions between the two.
Yeah. So and the dollar uh now uh well at its lowest uh for the year to date I think. Well not quite, but close to it. Actually close to the lowest level I think since twenty twenty three when it got down to ninety eight point six on the DXY. So uh, you know, here we are.
What is driving the recent rise in oil prices despite OPEC‑Plus’s increased supply?
Uh there's uh c clearly now again a strong d uh drive to sell the dollar, at least, you know, there is today.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why is President Trump doubling down on steel tariffs and what could Europe’s retaliation look like?
0:01–1:46
2
How are the latest US equity moves and bond‑yield changes reflecting trade‑policy uncertainty?
1:46–3:57
3
What is driving the recent rise in oil prices despite OPEC‑Plus’s increased supply?
3:57–5:53
4
How are US labour‑market indicators (JOLTS, ISM, PMI) signalling a slowdown or resilience?
5:53–8:20
5
What impact are Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs having on US inventory levels and pricing?
8:20–10:35
6
How are European and Asian PMI readings interpreting the trade‑tension fallout?
10:35–13:25
7
What does the RBA’s latest minutes and Australian housing data suggest about future rate cuts?
13:25–15:40
8
Will the upcoming US non‑farm payrolls and JOLTS data act as a canary for the labour market?
15:40–17:58