Equities rise, bond yields falling. Bessent calls for bigger rate cut.
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Why are global equities climbing while US markets show modest gains?
Equities are rising not just in the United States, everywhere it seems, perhaps because people are relieved that tariffs have been lowered generally, and now everyone can get back to work. Although the IEA isn't expecting too much growth next year, and they expect oil supplies to build up as a result of that. We're also going to look at yesterday's wage prices for Australia and what to expect in the employment numbers that are out later on today. And the UK's Q2 GDP, which is going to be Slow, very slow. It's Thursday, it's the 14th of August, 2025. It's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well, equities are on the rise again today, but not by much in the United States. So just a naught point one percent rise for the Nasdaq at the close in New York, not point three percent for the S P and one percent for the Dow.
Whereas the Eurostocks fifty is up one percent this morning and naught point seven percent for the DAX and the CatCaron. The rise in equities it seems does seem to be a bit of a global thing 'cause the MSCI All Country World Equity Index got over nine hundred and fifty four uh overnight, which is an all time high, rising nine point two percent for the last three months. So it's not just a US thing. Bond yields have pushed quite a bit lower. So losing five basis points for ten year Treasury's yields, uh down six for German Bundes, down seven in France. Aussie ten years yesterday were down two basis points to four point two two percent. This morning on futures just one basis point higher than that. And a quarter percent four
In the US dollar down to 97.6 on the DXY. The Aussie dollar is up just 0.2%, 65.4 US cents. The euro also up 0.2%. The pound, though, is up half a percent. And oil is down about 0.7% for WTI, 0.6% for Brent. Brenton is now at 65.70 a barrel. And it is the turn of Nab's Gavin Friend in London to join me on the morning call this morning. Uh on a day when, well, there's not been a lot of data, has there? But what there has been has been uh well, remarkably unsurprising. So we we can start with yesterday's wage price index for Australia, uh for Q two, which showed growth of naught point eight percent quarter on quarter, which is pretty much where the consensus was. The annual rate is three point three per cent, pretty close to where the RBA forecast is.
How have bond yields moved across the US, Eurozone and Australia this morning?
So, Gavin, could we quite easily say nothing to see here? Well. Fellow.
Well yeah, I think that's the takeaway, isn't it? Um you know, if you look at uh the uh private sector versus public sector detail, there's a little bit of a ongoing issue there. Public sector pay re uh pay awards a little bit higher, three point seven percent year on year versus three point four in the uh the the private sector. A lot of this is kind of is sort of uh uh Attributed to back to backdated pay rises for some state back enterprise agreements which are now coming into effect. There might be a little f more of those to come down the pipe. But I think you're absolutely right. Not uh not no not no real large implications for the RBA on this one. Um and it has said that uh you know it it it sees wages coming down to an annual pace of about two point nine percent uh by the end of this year.
Yeah, from where where they are now. Well
it's on its way there, isn't it? Let's uh see w today what the employment data for Australia comes up with. The consensus is a twenty five thousand uh job gain, which is a bit of a step up from June, which saw any two thousand added. Uh and we're expecting the unemployment rate to fall from uh four point three percent down to four point two percent. But you know, if it comes in weaker than that, then maybe that's just the ammunition that the RBA needs to get in to schedule in another extra cut perhaps before the end of the year.
Mm-hmm. I'll be careful on that. I mean, remember the uh the the the two tenths rise to four point three was really all down to sample rotation. So if you were to get to your point of four point one, I mean, you know, what's driving it? The RBA won't be moved by any one particular month's numbers, you know, they can be kind of volatile.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why are global equities climbing while US markets show modest gains?
0:01–2:10
2
How have bond yields moved across the US, Eurozone and Australia this morning?
2:10–4:09
3
What does the Australian wage price index reveal about inflation pressures?
4:09–6:09
4
How could the upcoming Australian employment data influence RBA policy?
6:09–8:50
5
What are the implications of Scott Bessent’s call for a 50‑bp Fed cut in September?
8:50–10:43
6
How might the UK’s Q2 GDP outlook affect European markets?
10:43–13:21
7
What risks do tariff‑driven price changes pose for global inflation?
13:21–15:10
8
How could future Fed rate‑cut scenarios shape market expectations?
15:10–17:09