Escalate to de-escalate, again
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What’s the impact of President Trump’s Greenland reversal on equity markets?
So President Trump won't be taking over Greenland, but he does have a win-win deal, apparently, although Margaret, the NATO chief, says there's a lot of work to be done on that. But it has car markets. The chance of a February rate rise in Australia increased as well on the back of strong employment data yesterday, strong US data as well overnight, and PMIs are out today, plus Japan's CPI. And the barge today, they won't lift rates, but what are they going to do about the falling yen? Fridays the twenty third of January twenty twenty six. It's the morning call from Nav. Good morning. Well, the Aussie dollar is at one point one percent this morning, almost sixty-eight point four US cents, rising steadily through the session overnight.
The US dollar is down naught point four percent overnight, having risen yesterday on the uh supposed Greenland deal, but uh then this swift reversal. Australian ten year bond yields were at four point seven nine percent yesterday, now up to four point eight seven percent on futures. Uh Aussie equities obviously had a good day with the ASX two hundred up thirty. Three quarters one percent yesterday, but a bigger bounce back in the US overnight. The NASDAQ up one point one percent, and the Eurostocks fifty is up one and a quarter percent, and no stopping gold and silver. So spot gold up to another high, rising one point two percent, silver up three point four percent to another high, uh whilst oil is well down almost two percent for Brent and WTI, WTI falling quite a bit below sixty a barrel now.
Brent around six 64. So Nab Sky Masters is with me today. Lots of data to talk through today, which means uh less Donald Trump. Uh although there is this um having gone from no way back on Greenland, the US president seems to well, has he reversed camp course or has he just got what he wanted? But anyway, there's some sort of deal uh which explains equities, um, but uncertainty obviously remains. Which explains gold. So we're still in a bit of a half way house situation.
How are the Aussie dollar, bond yields and equity indices moving today?
Good morning, Phil. Yeah, I think um, you know, there's clearly been a um de escalation in the geopolitical risks over the last sort of twenty four, forty eight hours and so you are seeing that sort of being um priced through into into financial markets. But, you know, um overall there's still a high degree of um of uncertainty. Um, you know, it's been a very noisy, busy start to the year and I think um The expectation is is it that is going to continue? So, you know, as you said, you know, precious metals um are still being supported. So, you know, gold gold is is up as as you said overnight. Um, but we have seen um sort of good performance in in equity markets overnight, um, given that sort of change in in um
or easing of um concerns around around Greenland. And we and we've also what what's of note is also some tightening in in credit spreads um overnight um as, you know, um, you know, investors just have a little bit more confidence um and w sort of w wanna wanna sort of um redeploy their their cash. And I think also supporting that that turning confidence and we can talk about it um is The data that um has come out over the last um a
For sure. Helps helps, doesn't it? When we've got some numbers. Just on the uncertainty looking forward, uh, don't want to depress anyone. The headline in the Wall Street Journal today is that the US is actively seeking regime change in Cuba by the end of the year as well. So, um, but you know, more take over moments perhaps we'll see. But let's look at the data. Let's start at home uh with that lower than expected unemployment read for Australia yesterday, four point three percent was expected.
Why did Australia’s unemployment rate drop to 4.1% and what does it mean for the RBA?
It fell to four point one percent. Quite a move down.
Yeah, it was it was a big surprise, Phil, and you saw um sort of pretty immediate um reaction in in bond markets. Um but yeah, as you said, the unemployment rate came in at four point one. Um consensus was for it to be at at um at four point four point three so quite a strong number there and and you know employment grow um was was quite strong as well.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What’s the impact of President Trump’s Greenland reversal on equity markets?
0:02–1:52
2
How are the Aussie dollar, bond yields and equity indices moving today?
1:52–3:36
3
Why did Australia’s unemployment rate drop to 4.1% and what does it mean for the RBA?
3:36–5:35
4
What do the latest US CPI, GDP and personal spending numbers tell us about inflation?
5:35–7:23
5
How are New Zealand’s Q4 CPI and retail sales shaping the local economy?
7:23–9:11
6
Will the Bank of Japan raise rates as the yen weakens and elections loom?
9:11–11:22
7
What are today’s global PMI releases and what do they signal for manufacturing and services?
11:22–13:20
8
How are market participants pricing RBA rate hikes through February and beyond?
13:20–14:07