Fed on hold for how long? RBA hike even more likely
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Why did the Fed keep rates on hold and what does it mean for future moves?
The Fed has kept race on hold, but for how long? And will their next move be down or up? Well we know the RBA is set to lift, and yesterday's Australian CPI fed into that, but there's still heaps of geopolitical uncertainty. Will Trump launch another attack on Iran, for example? And today, earnings from Microsoft and Meta. That's a bit happening. It's Thursday, it's the 29th of January, 2026. It's the morning call from NAB. Good morning. So ahead of the Fed we saw a US dollar that had recovered a little, up over naught point four percent on the DXY. It's around ninety six point six now. The Aussie is down naught point three percent to sixty nine point nine US cents, but it has slipped over seventy briefly a few times in the last twenty four hours, actually getting close to it right now, actually.
And the yen, meanwhile, heading back down more than one point one percent low. Look at the reasons for that. Ten year treasury yields were up two. basis points to four point two seven percent, up two in the UK as well, down two in Germany. Aussie ten years down three basis points to four point eight one percent, which is where we find it this morning on futures. And the NASDAQ. Up ever so slightly uh ahead of the uh big tech earnings coming out soon. The S P is down a little, but it did break a record, touching seven thousand for the first time. The Eurostocks fifty and the CAC current both down more than one percent, and oil is up over one percent. Brent over sixty eight a barrel now, a one point three percent rise in WTI taking it over sixty three.
How are US dollar, Aussie and yen movements reflecting Fed and geopolitical news?
And gold, guess what? New highs, spot gold up two percent, four point one One percent for Comics Gold, both new highs, and spot gold breaching the five thousand three hundred dollar mark at one point, and Comics Silver, that's up six point eight percent, but not quite a new high there. So let's try and make sense out of all of that with Nab Sally Ald. So the Fed, no rate move, uh we've had three rate cuts so far. Is that it? That's the question.
Yeah, good morning, Phil. So that's right. Pretty uncontroversial so far. So the statement um just been released and basically telling us that uh, you know, unchanged as as was expected on the policy rate, but it wasn't a unanimous decision. There were a couple of dissenters. So Moran and Waller uh both wanted a twenty-five basis point easing. And so, you know, if we remember um in the last three meetings, Moran has wanted fifty basis points. So A slight sort of shift in in view from him, I guess acknowledging, you know, maybe that the US economy was actually looking a bit better coming into this meeting than perhaps it was at prior FOMC meetings. But nonetheless, this was very much an expected outcome.
And, you know, as is usually the case, the statement just basically reflects recent development. So the economy is described as expanding at a solid pace. Um inflation remains somewhat elevated, and the labour market is really the one that's probably had the the bigger tweak where And the Fed statement does acknowledge that job gains have been slow, um, but actually acknowledge that the unemployment rate had shown some signs of stabilizing. And and actually later in the statement, they've removed uh the comment they had back in December, which you know sort of suggested they were still worried about downside risks to the labor market.
What does the Fed’s statement reveal about possible future rate cuts?
So all up. I don't think there's gonna be a lot in this that uh is g is going to uh uh prompt too much of a a market reaction. Um of course we'll wait and see what gets said uh at the press conference, but so far so good in terms of what the Fed has delivered.
Unfortunate timing that we're publishing this just about the same time the press conference is going on, which is a which is always a shame. But the statement did say more rate cuts are possible, but no indication of when that might might be or why that might be. But I mean, cuts, really, if we look at you know, as you say, there's signs of economic growth. We've got a lower dollar, got lower oil prices, which are going to help that growth.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why did the Fed keep rates on hold and what does it mean for future moves?
0:01–1:27
2
How are US dollar, Aussie and yen movements reflecting Fed and geopolitical news?
1:27–3:12
3
What does the Fed’s statement reveal about possible future rate cuts?
3:12–4:51
4
Why is the RBA expected to hike rates after the latest Australian CPI surprise?
4:51–6:27
5
How are inflation, growth and capacity constraints shaping the RBA’s policy outlook?
6:27–8:50
6
What impact could the US‑Iran naval deployments have on gold and precious‑metal markets?
8:50–11:06
7
Why are Microsoft and Meta earnings crucial for the AI‑driven market narrative?
11:06–12:38
8
What are the expectations for the RBA’s rate decision on Tuesday and how might yields react?
12:38–13:39