Fine China. Handle with Care.
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What’s the overall market snapshot for the week (US, Aussie, commodities)?
Well, maybe things are picking up in China. Certainly those buying into the CSI three hundred on Friday seem to think so. We'll look at why that is. But spoiler alert, some of the monthly activity data was strong. We'll also look at the impact of Japan's CPI at the end of the week. And UK retail sales, they surprise again as we kick off a week that includes global PMIs and a decision by the Bank of Canada, possibly a big one, maybe a really big one. It's Monday. It's the twenty first of october twenty twenty four. It's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well, we finished the week with a US dollar down a third of one percent on Friday, but over the week naught point six percent up. The Aussie dollar, which was marginally up on Friday, but naught point six percent down over the week, finishing a little over sixty-seven US cents.
And stocks pushing ever higher. The Nasdaq up naught point six percent on Friday, the S P up naught point four percent. Over the week, the S P rose almost naught point nine percent. It has delivered Delivered a twenty three percent return year to date. So has the Nasdaq, which rose one point one percent last week. And bond yields, well, they didn't move much last week. Ten year treasuries uh down a couple of basis points over the week, that's all. Aussie ten years up ten basis points over the week, up to almost four point three two per cent, and German ten year buttons down eight basis points last week. So yeah. Some moves in all directions it seems, but not much movement in the United States. And oil is being pulled lower.
Brent fell sharply on Friday, losing one point nine percent, almost down to seventy-three a barrel, that's six dollars lower than the end of the week before, and gold pushing higher too. In fact, it tipped over two thousand seven hundred dollars for the first time. So in amongst the positive news in equities, and they do just seem to be, you know, on the up and up. We've also seen the CSI three hundred rise a massive three point six percent on Friday, despite the struggles it was having earlier in the week, uh and despite all the concerns about how effective government policy has been or will be. Well Nabs Rodrigo Cotrill is with me today. So why the change of heart in China?
Why did China’s CSI‑300 jump 3.6% despite slowing growth?
I mean they did get some good data, is that what it was like what what it was or more news from the government?
Um morning Phil. Well yeah, so in terms of the data, um uh I I would qualify it as mixed rather than good data. Um the You know, they had the slowest quarter and I think it's like seven or eight quarters in terms of GDP reading. Um and the previous GDP the previous quarter in terms of GDP growth was also revised lower. So um if there was any doubt that China is slowing down, uh the numbers really confirmed that on Friday. Um but um those that want to be optimistic would point out that uh retail sells so the activity readings for September. show that retail sales of the consumer picking up a little bit, um whilst at the same time we also saw industrial production also uh showing a little bit of an uptick.
So um and unemployment fell as well. Well um I will pass no judgment on that employment number because nobody knows exactly where it comes from. So um what is more important as well is that we've seen house prices continue to decline. Again the optimistic will say oh Oh, but the decline was just the same as the previous as the previous month. Uh but it's still what it does show is that the Um the housing market remains on a free fall. Um we we can argue maybe the speed of falling uh hasn't changed, uh but it's still falling and and that is a key issue in terms of the state of the consumer and private sector investment. You know, when you have one of the biggest sources of your wealth declining at a pretty, pretty rapid rate, um, you you don't feel very good about your wealth and um and that is a reflection of a very anemic consumer as well.
So Um to me the the numbers still show that there's there's a lot more that the policymakers need to do to arrest this decline and to change the direction in the economy.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What’s the overall market snapshot for the week (US, Aussie, commodities)?
0:01–2:04
2
Why did China’s CSI‑300 jump 3.6% despite slowing growth?
2:04–5:52
3
What do China’s mixed GDP, retail and industrial data mean for the economy?
5:52–8:51
4
How are Chinese policy tools (share buybacks, equity‑swap) expected to boost confidence?
8:51–11:10
5
What does Japan’s latest CPI report indicate for future rate moves?
11:10–13:00
6
Why are UK retail sales outperforming China and what could that mean for the BoE?
13:00–13:34
7
What insights might the RBA’s Andrew Hauser share in his fireside chat?
13:34–14:22
8
Will the Bank of Canada deliver a 25‑ or 50‑basis‑point rate cut this week?
14:22–14:26