Glimmers of Hope
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Why are markets suddenly optimistic about oil supplies and a potential Iran cease‑fire?
Well, markets are clearly hopeful that oil supplies will return very soon, and we wait to hear what President Trump has to say around lunchtime today. But is it too much optimism too soon? Or is it safe to assume that this is going to be all over sometime? So why not price it in now? Has the market abandoned the long-term scenario that really sees this turning into a full-blown energy crisis? Seems like that's being ignored now. It's Thursday, it's the second of April, 2026. It's the morning call for From Nab, good morning. Another big session for US equities back on the rise, although they've trimmed some of the uh gains. So an hour ago, just before we recorded this, uh it was one point seven percent higher for the Nasdaq, but that's now just one percent.
It was one point two percent for the S P. Now it's just half a percent. Uh the DAX closed up two point seven percent, shares up three percent in Spain, the Euro stocks fifty isn't far off three percent as well. An oil lower almost two percent off WTI, two point eight percent off. Rent now just uh above 101 a dollar. It could well get sub 100 soon. Another half percent fall in the US dollar, down to 99.4 in the DXY. The Aussie is half percent up to just 69.4 US cents. The pound is up 0.7%, 0.4% for the euro. Not much movement in 10-year Treasury yields, uh, but yields well down in Europe, down nine basis points for 10-year gilts in the UK, for example, down five in France. points down eight in Italy. I'm sure that's not a response to them getting booted out of the World Cup even before it started.
How did the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and European indices react to the early‑day rally?
Uh and Aussie ten year yields yesterday fell six basis points down to four point nine one percent this morning. Although higher than that now, close to four point nine nine percent this morning. Nabs Taylor Newton is with me today. So uh look at those moves. I mean early on it looked as though the everyone thought the Iran war was just about over.
Yeah, good good morning, Phil. Certainly the the theme did does seem to be that that kind of, you know, rally in in equity prices and and fall back in yields and some weakening in the US dollar that was a theme uh the prior day on on hopes that the the war could be coming to a you know a resolution sooner rather than later. You know, they've they've largely extended. As you say, kind of looking at the screens at the moment, some of those initial moves have have paired over the last um hour or so, but you know, certainly uh are still overall an extension of of those moves, you know, really outside of uh of of you know US yields and there was some some data flow in in the US that seems to have, you know, put me meant that that um you know paired some of those uh earlier falls in yields that I'm sure we'll talk about in a moment.
Yeah, well Donald Trump of course giving his address today, lunchtime, our time. Uh so Terry Haynes is on our weekend edition. He's a commentator from the US. Uh and he s he s says that Trump is going to be sending a message to the American people that their involvement is short lived, whilst working on a longer term plan with everybody else to try and finish the job, which will almost certainly mean more involvement of from the Gulf states. But you know, the Gulf states have got I've got a lot to lose if they get involved. I mean, that it could create a regional war. So even though there's all this optimism, I mean th the oil is still not flowing uh and that could take some time. I just wonder whether the markets are getting ahead of themselves.
Yeah, I mean there's still plenty of un uncertainty out there, as you say. So, you know, Trump's address, which is, you know, about midday our time in in Sydney today will be closely watched. And yeah, I mean, if the major developments uh over the last twenty four hours or or so have had um Donald Trump saying that Iran's president has has asked for a ceasefire that he wouldn't agree to unless the Strait of Hormuz was first reopened. Iran
What impact could President Trump’s lunchtime address have on market sentiment?
has rejected that as as false and and baseless. Um and you know we there are you know alternate things in the in in the works as well that as you say the UAE um reported to be preparing to help the US and other allies open the strait by force, have you know read about a a separate diplomatic uh effort to try and um see a a way through.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why are markets suddenly optimistic about oil supplies and a potential Iran cease‑fire?
0:01–1:25
2
How did the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and European indices react to the early‑day rally?
1:25–3:29
3
What impact could President Trump’s lunchtime address have on market sentiment?
3:29–5:38
4
Why are ISM manufacturing numbers strong yet delivery times are rising?
5:38–7:19
5
How are the latest US consumer‑spending and retail‑sales figures influencing inflation expectations?
7:19–9:26
6
What do the Tankan survey and rising five‑year inflation expectations mean for the Bank of Japan’s policy?
9:26–11:21
7
Why did Australian building approvals surge in February and what does it signal for housing demand?
11:21–13:00
8
Will upcoming US payroll data and Trump’s speech confirm or reverse the current market optimism?
13:00–14:19