Good jobs and new hope
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What are the latest US non‑farm payroll results and why did they boost markets?
Could we be on the verge of positive steps from the Gulf? Iran has responded to the US proposal, and it's not an outright rejection. Meanwhile, stocks riding on new highs, largely because of chips and AI, but also jobs numbers on Friday for the United States. Much better than expected. A very different story though, over the border in Canada. It's Monday, it's the 11th of May, 2026. It's the morning call from NAB. Good morning. Well, there was a a good rise in US equities on Friday, the Nasdaq up one point seven percent, the S P up naught point eight percent, both hitting fresh highs, whilst European equities were down one point three percent off the DAX, for example, one point one percent lower for the Cat Carrant, all that whilst oil was rising, one and a quarter percent added to Brent up to a hundred and one thirty a barrel, not point six percent added to WTI, the US dollar down about not point two percent on Friday.
Friday, the Aussie up half a percent to seventy-two point five US cents. That's a an eight point six percent gain on the year so far. And bond yields lower, down three basis points for ten year treasuries, down four for UK Gilts, and down one or two basis points for yields across much of Europe. Aussie ten years finished the week off at four point nine eight per cent. Not quite hitting five percent on futures this morning. And uh Nab Sky Masters joins me today. Okay. So um some of those market moves uh on Friday, well quite a lot of it I think was the jobs numbers, wasn't it? The non farm payrolls. A hundred and fifteen thousand new jobs in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at four point three percent.
So basically a lot better than people had expected.
How did private‑sector job gains drive the US payroll surprise?
Good morning, Phil. Yes, it was it was a positive US payrolls print. Uh I think when you look at financial market price action on Friday, uh it was a bit mixed. Um the payrolls print certainly did boost US equities, but European equities did close lower on the day and I think for there it was the geopolitical backdrop which continued to weigh on way on investor sentiment, um and and a and a lack of any any data out in Europe. to drive sentiment. We can unpack um the geopol political backdrop in in a minute. But just going back to your point around payrolls, Uh yeah, he headline print was quite a bit stronger than expected. Um Payrolls rose by a hundred and fifteen thousand in April, uh, versus expectations of sixty five thousand rise.
So quite quite a big um big surpr upside surprise there. Um unpacking the print, the the the strength was entirely in in the private payrolls. So they rose 123,000, whereas government payrolls actually declined on the month, falling by around eight, eight thousand. So gains in private sector jobs were seen uh in services, you know, you're as expected, you those those sectors, healthcare. education, leisure, leisure and and hosp hospitality. But a good overall print, uh, you know, you your your um underlying jobs gain is averaging around fifty thousand at the moment. So that's sort of keeping your unemployment rate um pretty much steady. So the unemployment rate came in at four point three percent um as expected, um un unchanged on the month.
However if you if you
What does the recent University of Michigan consumer‑sentiment report reveal?
add a few decimals at at the end of that, um, it did it did increase slightly. So it went from four point two five six to four point three three seven. So small, small edge edge higher in in the unemployment rate. But overall that that unemployment rate in the US is just just remaining Very very steady. It's it's ranged a four point three to four point four range over the over the past four months, so not really shifting the dial there.
And average hourly earnings have moved a little bit, growing at uh just three point six percent year on year, which is higher than last time, but actually it was expected to rise by three point eight percent, so actually a bit lower than expected.
Yes, so you're right. Uh there was an increase in pro private payroll income. Uh so d it did did rise in in the month. But it it was mixed.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What are the latest US non‑farm payroll results and why did they boost markets?
0:01–1:33
2
How did private‑sector job gains drive the US payroll surprise?
1:33–3:08
3
What does the recent University of Michigan consumer‑sentiment report reveal?
3:08–4:50
4
How are Iran’s latest nuclear‑enrichment offers affecting Gulf negotiations?
4:50–6:40
5
Why are Canadian labour market numbers turning negative and what does it mean for the Bank of Canada?
6:40–8:54
6
What key tax and wage‑price changes are expected in the upcoming Australian federal budget?
8:54–10:34
7
How might the Trump‑Xi meeting influence US‑China trade and Middle‑East stability?
10:34–12:17
8
What are the hosts’ final thoughts on market outlook and upcoming data releases?
12:17–14:04